Canadians will eat a record 39.8kg of chicken per person by 2027 even as the population falls. Here’s what it means for producers, processors and protein buyers.
For most of the past 35 years, the story of Canadian chicken demand has been a simple one: more people, more chicken. That story just broke. Canada’s population is expected to shrink in 2026, yet chicken consumption per person is heading to record levels. Demand is no longer riding on headcount. It’s being driven by what Canadians choose to put on their plates, and that is a far more powerful and lasting shift for the protein industry.
The numbers behind the record
According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s latest annual report on Canadian poultry, per capita chicken consumption is forecast at 39.5kg in 2026 and 39.8kg in 2027, the highest on record.
What makes this remarkable is the population backdrop. Driven mainly by immigration, Canada’s population grew by an exceptional 3.0% a year in both 2023 and 2024. Tighter federal immigration policy then pulled growth back to its long-run average of about 1.0% in 2025. With new targets cutting temporary resident numbers and more temporary residents leaving, the population is expected to fall in 2026 compared with 2025, before modest growth returns in 2027.
Over the longer term, total Canadian chicken consumption has nearly tripled in 35 years. The population rose from close to 28 million in 1990 to a peak of 41.6 million in 2025. Now that tailwind has stalled, but appetite per person keeps climbing.
Why Canadians keep choosing chicken
Beef has priced itself out of the everyday basket. This is the biggest single driver. Canada’s cattle herd has been shrinking for years, made worse by drought in Western Canada, and retail beef has hit record highs. In March 2026, Statistics Canada data showed beef prices up 12.7% year on year, against 7.5% for chicken and 6.2% for pork. Farm Credit Canada notes a striking reversal: before 2021, ground beef was about a dollar a pound cheaper than chicken breast. Since mid-2024, ground beef has matched and at times overtaken chicken breast on price. When the cheapest beef cut costs as much as premium chicken, consumers switch.
The protein boom. Shoppers are actively seeking protein-rich foods, and chicken is seen as lean, healthy and versatile.
A changing population mix. Nearly one in four Canadians was born abroad, and immigrants increasingly come from countries where chicken is preferred over beef or pork. These eating habits are now embedded in the population, even as new arrivals slow.
Quick-service growth. Chicken-led QSR menus continue to expand, adding steady foodservice volume.
The key takeaway is that most of these drivers are structural. Beef supply is expected to stay tight until at least mid-2027, dietary preferences shift slowly, and the protein trend shows no sign of fading.
A supply-managed system under pressure
Canada doesn’t run an open chicken market. Under supply management, Chicken Farmers of Canada sets national production every eight-week cycle, then allocates it to the ten producing provinces and individual farmers. The allocation is decided jointly with processors, further-processors and foodservice representatives, based on demand, stocks, competing protein prices and feed costs.
The system is responding. USDA estimates 2026 production at 1.485 million tonnes, up 2.4% on 2025, with a further 2.0% increase to 1.515 million tonnes forecast for 2027. Supply is still struggling to keep up. Reporting in mid-2026 described Canadian production failing to match demand, with wholesale prices for some chicken products up roughly 12% since May 2025.
This is the core tension for the industry. A system designed for stability and gradual growth is facing a demand curve that is rising faster than usual, at a time when the usual demand signal (population) is pointing the other way.
What it means for the industry
For producers: A strong case for continued quota growth. With demand built on substitution and preference rather than headcount, there’s a sound basis to argue for sustained allocation increases rather than one-off adjustments.
For processors and further-processors: Raw material will stay tight and expensive. Expect tougher negotiations, a focus on yield and value-added products, and pressure on margins where retail pricing can’t keep pace with input costs.
For importers and exporters: Imports are capped under tariff rate quotas, so they can’t simply fill the gap. USDA’s earlier outlook put 2026 import access at around 121,600 tonnes, with the US holding more than 80% of the market and Chile gaining share through the CPTPP quota. Exporters with quota access are well placed, but the upside is limited by design.
For retail and foodservice buyers: Chicken’s price advantage is narrowing. Expect continued upward pressure on wholesale chicken, fewer deep promotional deals, and a need to balance chicken-led menus against margin targets. The days of very low-priced chicken breast flyer offers are unlikely to return soon.
For the beef sector: The risk is that substitution becomes habit. Consumers who move to chicken for price reasons and stay for convenience and health may not return in full when beef supply recovers.
Risks to watch
- Affordability: Chicken’s appeal rests on value. If prices keep rising toward beef levels, some demand could move to pork or plant-based alternatives.
- Avian influenza: An outbreak could quickly disrupt a supply system that is already stretched.
- Beef recovery: Herd rebuilding is slow, but when beef prices eventually ease, part of the substitution demand may unwind.
- Population uncertainty: Changes to immigration policy could alter the demand base in either direction after 2027.
The bottom line
Canada is proving that chicken demand can grow without population growth. Record per capita consumption, a falling population and rising prices all point to the same thing: chicken has become Canada’s default protein. For producers, that justifies confidence. For processors and buyers, it means tighter supply and firmer prices for at least the next two years.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much chicken does the average Canadian eat?
USDA forecasts 39.5kg per person in 2026 and 39.8kg in 2027, both record highs.
Why is chicken consumption rising when Canada’s population is falling?
Record beef prices, strong demand for protein, health perceptions, chicken-focused QSR growth and a growing share of immigrants with chicken-oriented diets are lifting consumption per person.
Is Canada’s population really declining?
USDA’s report expects a population decline in 2026 compared with 2025, following tighter immigration policy, with modest growth anticipated in 2027.
How much chicken will Canada produce?
Around 1.485 million tonnes in 2026 and 1.515 million tonnes forecast for 2027.
Can imports make up the shortfall?
Only partly. Chicken imports are limited by tariff rate quotas, with the US supplying most of the volume.
Will chicken prices keep rising in Canada?
While beef stays expensive and demand remains strong, chicken prices are likely to stay firm. Beef supply is expected to remain tight until at least mid-2027.
How is Canadian chicken production controlled?
Through supply management. Chicken Farmers of Canada sets national production every eight weeks, which is then shared among provinces and individual farmers.
Sources and Additional Resources
Data accuracy note: The import quota and US market share figures come from USDA’s 2025 annual report and may have been revised in the 2026 edition. The wholesale price increase refers to selected chicken products, not the whole category. Industry impacts are analytical projections, not official forecasts.
