Raw sugar futures hit a 19-month high of 21.24 cents a pound as rain slowed Brazil’s harvest, before slipping as buyers pulled back.
Coffee and cocoa also eased on Wednesday, but the wider picture for food buyers is the same: weather risks in key producing countries are keeping soft commodity prices high and volatile.
Today’s prices at a glance
| Commodity | Price | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Raw sugar (ICE) | 20.54 cents/lb | Down 1.3%, after a 19-month high of 21.24 cents |
| White sugar | $547.90/tonne | Down 1.55% |
| Arabica coffee | $2.93/lb | Down 3.7%, erasing most of Tuesday’s 4.1% gain |
| Robusta coffee | $3,492/tonne | Down 2.7% |
| New York cocoa | $5,611/tonne | Down 1.6% |
| London cocoa | £4,201/tonne | Down 0.7% |
Sugar: Brazil’s rain problem
The rally was driven by Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter. Rain in the Centre-South region has slowed the cane harvest. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) now says Brazil’s output will likely fall short of the 39 million tonnes it expected only six weeks ago.
El Niño is adding to the concern, with the weather pattern expected to curb sugar output, particularly in Asia. Dealers said the rally had dampened physical demand, which helped prices ease from the peak.
Coffee: ample supply, nervous outlook
Arabica gave back most of Tuesday’s gains. Brazil’s September green coffee exports were the highest in 20 months, keeping near-term supply comfortable. Prices are still supported by fears that El Niño could cut the 2027/28 crop and by low stocks in exchange warehouses.
Cocoa: rain brings relief
Cocoa fell as forecast rain in Ivory Coast, the largest producer, eased worries about dry conditions. Traders cautioned that the rain may not be enough to fully support the recovery of young cocoa pods.
Why it matters
- Weather is driving prices. Brazil’s harvest delays and El Niño are the key risks for sugar and coffee into 2027.
- Volatility is high. Daily swings of 3% to 4% in coffee make budgeting difficult for buyers.
- Ingredient costs stay elevated. Sugar at a 19-month high feeds through to confectionery, bakery, beverages and processed foods.
What it means for buyers
For procurement teams in confectionery, beverages and bakery:
- Consider staged hedging. Spreading purchases over time can reduce the risk of buying at a peak.
- Watch Brazil’s harvest reports. The pace of the Centre-South harvest will shape sugar prices in the coming weeks.
- Track El Niño forecasts. Updates on its strength will matter for sugar in Asia and coffee in 2027.
- Review contract timing. With prices well above year-ago levels, align contract renewals with periods of weakness where possible.
The bottom line
Sugar’s 19-month high shows how quickly weather can move ingredient costs. Expect continued volatility in softs while Brazil’s harvest and El Niño remain in play.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did sugar prices hit a 19-month high? Rain in Brazil’s Centre-South region slowed the harvest, and the ISO said output is likely to fall short of earlier forecasts.
Why did prices fall back? Dealers said the rally had weakened physical demand from buyers.
What is happening to coffee prices? Arabica fell 3.7% as strong Brazilian exports kept supplies ample, though El Niño concerns remain.
Why did cocoa fall? Forecast rain in Ivory Coast eased concerns about dry weather.
Sources
| Source | Used for |
|---|---|
| Reuters (via Business Recorder) | Sugar, coffee and cocoa prices, drivers and ISO forecast |
Additional Resources
| Resource | What you’ll find |
|---|---|
| International Sugar Organization (ISO) | Global sugar supply and demand forecasts |
| International Coffee Organization (ICO) | Coffee market reports |
| International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | Cocoa production and grindings data |
| NOAA Climate Prediction Center | El Niño forecasts |
| ICE Futures | Sugar, coffee and cocoa futures data |
Data note: Prices are as of 14:00 GMT on 8 October and will have moved since. Futures prices differ from physical delivered prices.