US diesel hit a record $6.285 a gallon in mid-September, just as freight demand showed its first real recovery in more than three years.
The combination is pushing truckload rates sharply higher and squeezing smaller carriers. For shippers, it means transport budgets are under pressure going into the fourth quarter.
The numbers at a glance
- Diesel: Record average retail price of $6.285 per gallon, up 68.1% year on year (EIA, week reported 14 September)
- Freight volumes: Cass Freight Index shipments up 5.6% month on month and 2.1% year on year in August, ending a 42-month downturn
- Contract rates: Cass Truckload Linehaul Index up 11.3% year on year, the biggest rise since June 2022
- Spot rates: DAT dry van spot linehaul at $2.20 per mile in the week to 12 September, up 34.2% year on year
- Total freight spend: Cass expenditures up 18.7% year on year, including fuel
Why rates are rising
Two forces are working together. Freight volumes are finally growing after a long slump, and fuel costs have surged. Carriers are passing on higher costs, and smaller operators with less buying power for fuel are under the most pressure.
The American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) estimates trucking’s operating cost per mile rose from $1.65 in 2020 to $2.34 in 2025, before this year’s diesel spike.
Carriers are investing again
Despite the cost pressure, fleets are buying. Class 8 truck orders reached 18,200 units in August, up 42% year on year, with year-to-date orders up 111%. Some carriers are also raising pay to attract drivers: Anderson Trucking Service increased driver pay by 16.7%.
Why it matters
- The freight recession may be over. Ending a 42-month downturn is a meaningful turn for the trucking market.
- Fuel is the wildcard. Record diesel prices raise costs for every road shipment, through fuel surcharges as well as base rates.
- Capacity could tighten further. If smaller carriers exit, spot rates could stay elevated into 2027.
What it means for shippers
Shippers should review fuel surcharge tables, lock in contract rates where possible, and expect higher bids in the next round of procurement. Consolidating loads and improving routing can help offset rising costs per mile.
The bottom line
Freight is recovering just as fuel costs peak. Expect higher transport costs through the fourth quarter.
Frequently Asked Questions
How high did US diesel prices go? A record average of $6.285 per gallon in the week reported on 14 September, up 68.1% year on year.
Is freight demand recovering? Yes. The Cass Freight Index rose 2.1% year on year in August, ending a 42-month downturn.
How much have truckload spot rates risen? DAT dry van spot linehaul rates were $2.20 per mile, up 34.2% year on year.
Are carriers buying new trucks? Yes. Class 8 orders were up 42% year on year in August.
Sources
| Source | Used for |
|---|---|
| Cass Information Systems freight news roundup | Cass index figures, DAT spot rates, diesel prices, Class 8 orders, ATRI costs and carrier pay |
| US Energy Information Administration (EIA) (as reported) | Diesel price data |
Additional Resources
| Resource | What you’ll find |
|---|---|
| Cass Freight Index | Monthly North American freight volumes and expenditures |
| US Energy Information Administration (EIA) | Weekly diesel price data |
| DAT Freight & Analytics | Spot and contract truckload rates |
| American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) | Operational costs of trucking |
Data note: Diesel and rate figures are national averages and vary by region and lane.