Ukraine’s agricultural exports have experienced a significant increase in the current marketing year compared to the previous year, despite a slowdown in pace since the beginning of December. This deceleration can be attributed to the government’s implementation of measures aimed at preventing tax avoidance in the agricultural sector.
On December 1, the Ukrainian government introduced minimum export prices, granted new controls to the tax and customs service over shipments, and limited export authorization to firms that pay value-added tax. These regulations ensure that agricultural sales cannot be conducted at prices below those determined by the government, with the minimum acceptable export prices calculated based on previous month trade data and delivery terms, with a 10 percent discount applied.
As a result of these measures, agricultural export volumes have decreased, particularly in key commodities such as grain, oilseeds, and vegetable oil. December 2024 saw a 34.7% year-on-year decline in these exports, with shipments via Black Sea ports experiencing the most significant drop. Wheat exports fell from 1.84Mt to 789,000t, while corn shipments decreased from 3.12Mt to 2.5Mt.
Despite the slowdown, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine reported that cereal and legume exports from July 2024 to January 2025 totaled 24.75Mt, with corn accounting for 47.4%, wheat for 42.7%, and barley for 8.2% of the total exports. The wheat component showed a 21.1% increase compared to the previous year, while corn exports were slightly lower.
Looking ahead, the USDA forecasts a lower wheat export volume of 16Mt for Ukraine in the 2024-25 marketing year, down from 18.6Mt in the previous year. Corn exports are also expected to decrease to 23Mt from 29.5Mt, reflecting the impact of the government restrictions on export activities.
Despite challenges posed by Russia’s invasion in 2022, Ukraine has maintained its grain exports through its Black Sea ports, with a steady planted area expected for the upcoming harvest. The Agriculture Ministry projects a planted area of 11.1Mha for grains, with slight fluctuations in the areas allocated to different crops such as winter wheat, winter barley, spring wheat, spring barley, and corn.
Overall, Ukraine’s agricultural sector continues to navigate the challenges of tax regulations and export restrictions while maintaining a strong presence in the global grain market. With a strategic focus on compliance and sustainability, Ukrainian exporters are adapting to the evolving conditions to ensure the continued success of the country’s agricultural exports.
