Crops & Produce Weekly Intelligence Brief — Week of 14–20 June 2026
This brief compiles the week’s most material developments across the global crops and produce value chain — fresh fruit and vegetables, tree nuts, pulses and legumes, spices, culinary herbs, and adjacent soft-commodity ingredients (cocoa, coffee). Sourcing spans USDA AMS Market News, FreshPlaza, The Western Producer, Farm Progress/AgWeb, FoodIngredientsFirst, IFPRI, CFR, Reuters-sourced wire coverage, South African trade press (IOL Business Report, Milling Middle East & Africa), and commodity market data providers (Barchart, Statista, ICCO).
THE WEEK IN ONE LINE: Geopolitics dominates: the US–Iran memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is the single biggest story touching crops and ingredients this week, with knock-on effects across fertilizer costs, grain markets, and freight. Domestically, South Africa’s record maize harvest and rebounding citrus export forecast headline a steady week for African row crops, while US summer produce hits full stride and the pulses complex diverges sharply between record Australian lentils and a collapsing chickpea crop.
Table of Contents
1. Lead Story — Strait of Hormuz Reopening & Fertilizer Markets
US–Iran MOU Signed, But Normalization Will Take Months
The United States and Iran reached an agreement on 14 June 2026 to end the three-and-a-half-month conflict that had closed the Strait of Hormuz since 28 February. A memorandum of understanding was formally signed in Switzerland on 19 June, with the first phase centered on reopening the Strait — a corridor carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas trade and, critically for the F&B sector, around 20–30% of global seaborne fertilizer exports.
Analysts are cautioning against expecting an immediate snapback. Kpler’s maritime risk team estimates two to three months for shipping to return to pre-war volumes, with approximately 500 vessels backed up in the strait as of the signing date and only a handful of tankers transiting per day in the days immediately following the deal.
Fertilizer Price Impact: What It Means for Crop Input Costs
- Urea prices at the New Orleans import hub spiked 32% in a single week in early March (US$516/mt to US$683/mt) following the initial closure; global fertilizer shipments have run roughly 11% below year-ago levels for the duration of the conflict.
- DAP (phosphate) pricing has been stickier than urea due to sulphur feedstock constraints — Gulf disruption tightened sulphur supply, and DAP is projected by University of Illinois farmdoc analysis to have peaked near US$866–945/st depending on scenario, against a pre-crisis February benchmark of US$622/st.
- Phosphate, urea and sulphur seaborne shipments fell 28%, 12% and 30% year-on-year respectively since the war began, per shipping analytics cited by Marine Link; China’s issuance of new urea export quotas has partially offset the squeeze.
- Farmdoc’s scenario modelling indicates 2027 crop-year nitrogen and phosphate budgets should be built around structurally higher costs even under a “quick reopening” case — the lag between political agreement and meaningful cargo movement keeps prices elevated through the normal fall/winter fertilizer booking window.
Grain & Soft Commodity Market Reaction
Corn, soybean and wheat futures all moved lower on 15 June as traders priced out geopolitical risk premium and began factoring improved input-cost visibility. The relief was compounded by a bearish supply backdrop already in play: USDA’s prior Supply and Demand update had lifted Brazil’s corn harvest estimate to a record 139 MMT and increased Argentina’s crop by 2 MMT, reinforcing expectations of ample global grain availability even as the Hormuz situation resolves.
WHY THIS MATTERS FOR ESSFEED READERS: Import-dependent regions — Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, parts of the EU — remain most exposed to the lag between the MOU signing and physical fertilizer flow normalization. IFPRI’s analysis notes that nutrient carryover in soils provides a buffer, and farmers can shift toward legumes (lower nitrogen requirement), partially insulating yields. Expect continued elevated input costs to filter into Q3/Q4 grower economics across the value chain even as headline shipping risk eases.
2. Fresh Fruit & Vegetable Markets
US Retail: Summer Produce in Full Swing
USDA’s weekly grocery retail ad survey shows fruit now accounts for 57% of all US produce advertising, with vegetables at 34%. Total ad volume hit 314,351 for the week — essentially flat week-on-week but 22% ahead of the same week last year. Yellow peaches, yellow nectarines and red cherries lead featured items; grill-season vegetables (zucchini, yellow squash, corn, asparagus, peppers) and salsa staples (Roma tomatoes, avocados, jalapeños, cilantro) are heavily promoted alongside watermelon, cantaloupe and berries.
- Notable price increases: strawberries (1-lb package) +25%, yellow peaches (per lb) +17%, raspberries (6-oz package) +15%, sweet corn (each) +10%.
- Locally grown corn, lettuce, squash and tomatoes are now widely available across multiple US growing regions as the domestic season ramps.
Iran: Fresh Produce Trade Resumes Post-MOU
Iranian fresh fruit and vegetable exporters report a rapid return to normalcy following the 17 June digital signing of a trade-related MOU between Iran and the US. Trader Hadi Mirzaei described orders “already pouring in” from Oman, the UAE, Iraq and Russia, with timing coinciding with peak season for melons, cherries, sour cherries and stone fruit. Iranian exporters had been completely halted since 9 February, alongside all Persian Gulf shipping traffic.
Other Notable Produce Developments
- Mexico: Blueberry supply is running very tight after growers, discouraged by depressed December–January pricing, pruned back fields rather than reinvest — a supply contraction now showing up in current-season volumes.
- Tunisia: Severe drought has forced government-mandated water-use quotas for agriculture, with tomatoes among the hardest-hit crops as household tap access is also being restricted.
- Greece: First Samanta watermelons of the season have landed with strong demand attributed to hot weather across import markets.
- Spain: The 2025/26 national avocado season is tracking positively on higher water levels and expanded European distribution, despite wind-related harvest impacts in Axarquía.
- California: Avocado supply is dwindling quickly as the conventional season winds down, though organic volumes remain available at elevated FOB pricing for an estimated six more weeks.
Sources: USDA AMS Specialty Crops Market News (FVWRETAIL, FVDFOB); FreshPlaza.
3. Tree Nuts & Edible Nuts
US Terminal Market Pricing — Mid-June Snapshot
| Commodity | Market | Price Point | Tone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almonds (CA Peerless) | Boston | $154.00 / 50-lb sack | Light offerings |
| Pistachios (CA) | Boston | $154.00 / 25-lb sack | Steady |
| Cashews (Vietnam Early Gold) | Chicago | $325.00 / 50-lb sack | Steady |
| Brazil Nuts (polished large) | Chicago | $250–260 / 50-lb sack | Light |
| Pecans (CA) | Boston | $94 (25-lb) / $180 (50-lb) | Light |
| Peanuts (NC/VA jumbo) | Boston | $30–32 / 24–25-ct carton | Steady |
Source: USDA AMS MyMarketNews, Boston & Chicago Terminal Markets, 10–16 June 2026.
Structural Themes Across the Nut Complex
- The US remains dominant in almonds (>80% global supply) and pistachios (>60%), but UC Davis research flags potential annual losses of up to US$6bn tied to demand shifts, as China reduces direct purchases and increasingly routes imports through Vietnam and Malaysia to manage trade friction.
- Demand is outstripping supply for cashews, macadamias and pecans specifically, a structural mismatch expected to keep upward pressure on pricing for these three categories through 2026.
- Turkey’s early-2025 frost damage continues to weigh on hazelnut crop expectations, while Middle East tension — including Gulf port infrastructure damage — has been flagged as a risk to pistachio export logistics, separate from the Hormuz fertilizer story.
- Global edible nuts market sizing: US$68.5bn (2025) → US$72.6bn (2026), 5.9% CAGR, en route to a projected US$129.5bn by 2036 (Future Market Insights). Whole/raw/roasted formats still account for over 50% of category value, though online and indie-brand channels are growing fastest.
- M&A watch: Setton Farms’ acquisition of Touchstone Pistachio Company (with Wildflower Partners Family Office) continues to be cited as the bellwether consolidation move in pistachio processing capacity.
4. Pulses & Legumes
Australia: Record Lentils, Collapsing Chickpeas
ABARES’ June crop report forecasts a record Australian lentil crop for 2026-27 alongside an improved lupin harvest, driven by favourable early conditions in South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia. Chickpea output, however, is projected to fall by more than half, with dry conditions hitting northern New South Wales and southern Queensland particularly hard. ABARES flagged two risks to the outlook: the potential for dryness to spread nationally, and fertilizer cost/availability — Australia sources much of its fertilizer from the Persian Gulf, making it directly exposed to the Hormuz disruption covered in Section 1.
US Pulses: Planting Progress
USDA’s Weekly Bean, Pea and Lentil Market Review (period ending 31 May) showed strong planting progress across the major pulse states: North Dakota at 95% dry edible peas and 64% dry edible beans planted; Montana at 74% dry edible beans, 95% lentils and 90% dry edible peas. Minnesota (76%), Colorado (17%), Nebraska (41%) and Michigan (16%) trail on dry edible bean planting. Trade was described as light over the period.
USDA Production Outlook (2025 Marketing Year, July 2025–June 2026)
- Dry pea, lentil, and chickpea production are forecast up 23%, 22% and 32% respectively year-on-year, supported by higher yields.
- Dry bean production, by contrast, declined 4% despite record-high average yields of 2,203 lb/acre — acreage reductions outweighed the yield gains.
- Grower prices across the pulse complex are trending lower in the 2025/26 marketing year-to-date versus the prior year.
- Chickpea export concentration: Canada (30% share, 53.3M lb), Spain (25%, 45M lb) and Pakistan (15%) account for 70% of total US chickpea export volume.
Global Trade & Demand Drivers
Global pulses trade eased in 2025 on softer Canadian dry pea and lentil exports, but the IGC expects a modest 2026 rebound on stronger Asian demand and a potential recovery in China’s yellow pea buying. Plant-based protein demand remains the dominant structural tailwind: Mintel/Kantar survey data shows beans and legumes hold 79% net favourability among US plant-based protein consumers, well ahead of grains at 42%. Louis Dreyfus Company’s dedicated pulses business unit — covering yellow peas, chickpeas, red lentils, faba beans and pigeon peas — continues to target India, China and the Middle East as priority import markets.
Sources: The Western Producer (Pulse Weekly); USDA ERS Vegetables and Pulses Outlook; USDA Weekly Bean, Pea and Lentil Market Review; Northern Ag Network.
5. Spices
India: Live Auction & Market Monitoring
The Indian Spices Board’s current market price data (mid-June) shows large cardamom trading at approximately Rs. 1,350–2,840/kg across the Singtam and Gangtok markets depending on grade (Badadana vs. Chotadana). A small cardamom e-auction at Vandanmettu on 18 June saw 228 lots, ~63,863 kg arrived, ~63,520 kg sold, with a maximum price of Rs. 3,674/kg. Mundus Agri’s weekly Gujarat monitoring continues to track cumin, coriander, chilli, black pepper and cardamom alongside a price list spanning more than 70 products.
Category-Specific Supply Notes
- Black pepper: Holds the largest spice category share by value (estimates range 18.9–33.4% depending on methodology/segmentation), driven by both culinary versatility and growing positioning as a metabolism/digestion-supporting ingredient when paired with turmeric in functional beverages.
- Turmeric: Projected fastest-growing spice segment at 5.8% CAGR through 2033 on curcumin’s wellness/anti-inflammatory positioning; Indian sowing area reductions in prior seasons (down 40% in 2023-24 vs. 2022-23) continue to underpin elevated price floors.
- Cardamom: Guatemalan crop expectations have been lowered on drier-than-predicted conditions, contributing to price surges in that origin specifically.
- Cloves: Indonesian stocks remain tight — production down nearly 40% since 2021 in the world’s largest producing/consuming nation, forcing increased African import volumes to fill the gap.
- Vietnam: Black pepper harvest export volumes are running 10–15% below prior-year levels as the new crop season gets underway.
Market Sizing Context
Estimates of the global spices market vary by scope and methodology across research houses, ranging from roughly US$1.5bn to US$18.5bn for 2025/2026 baselines depending on whether ingredient-grade B2B trade or full retail/consumer packaged formats are included — researchers broadly agree on mid-single-digit to high-single-digit CAGR (5.3–6.9%) through the early 2030s, with clean-label, organic certification and functional-wellness positioning cited consistently as the primary growth drivers across reports.
Sources: Spices Board India (indianspices.com); Mundus Agri; Grand View Research; Persistence Market Research; Fortune Business Insights.
6. Culinary & Fresh Herbs
US Terminal Market Herb Pricing — Mid-June
USDA’s Philadelphia Terminal Market report (10 June) shows steady conditions across the bulk of the fresh herb complex. Basil from Florida priced at $32.00/carton (bunched 15s), with Israeli basil at $18.00/kg carton (bunched 12s). Cilantro from Mexico ranged $25.00–28.00 per crate of 60s, California cilantro at $26.00. Dill from New Jersey ran $22.00–30.00 depending on grade. Mint from Colombia priced $14.00–17.50/kg carton, New Jersey mint at $14.00–15.00 per carton of 12s.
Boston Terminal Market data shows similar steadiness, with Florida bunched basil (with root) at $40.00/bushel carton and Colombian air-shipped Thai loose basil at $6.00–8.00/lb bag — illustrating the meaningful price spread between domestic bunched and imported loose-leaf formats.
Supply Conditions by Market
- Miami: Very light offerings reported across anise, arugula, basil, chervil, chives, dill, marjoram, oregano, tarragon and thyme; cilantro from Mexico specifically noted as a higher market.
- Philadelphia & Boston: Broadly steady across anise, basil, cilantro, dill, mint, oregano, rosemary and sage; organic herb offerings (bay leaves, ginger root, turmeric) remain light.
Category Demand Context
Basil and cilantro/coriander jointly account for over 65% of global fresh herb market volume, with foodservice representing more than 55% of end-use demand (Grand View Research). Meal kits and international-cuisine cooking trends continue to be cited as the primary consumer-side growth driver, pushing retailers toward broader SKU ranges to compete with the freshness positioning of specialty herb suppliers.
Sources: USDA AMS MyMarketNews — Philadelphia, Boston, Miami and NYC Terminal Markets; Grand View Research.
7. Adjacent Ingredients — Cocoa & Coffee
Cocoa: Stabilizing Above $4,000/Tonne
ICE cocoa futures traded at $3,952/tonne as of 15 June, continuing a bearish technical trend after the historic 2024 peak of $12,931/tonne. Prices had briefly traded above $4,000/tonne in early June, extending a recovery from multi-month lows reached in May, before resuming the broader downtrend. The market remains caught between two narratives: improving 2025/26 production prospects in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana (which together still supply over 60% of global cocoa) supporting further price declines, versus persistent El Niño-linked weather uncertainty that could tighten supply again. Technical analysts flag $5,100/tonne — the pre-2024 1977 record high — as a key resistance/support pivot to watch.
Regulatory note: the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) compliance deadline for large operators has been pushed to 30 December 2026, with small/micro-enterprises now given until 30 June 2027 — a material timeline shift for any ESSFeed coverage of cocoa, coffee, palm oil or soy supply chain compliance.
Coffee: Elevated But Expected to Soften
Illy CEO Cristina Scocchia’s prior guidance projecting green coffee bean stabilization in the $2.50–3.00/lb range over a 15-month horizon remains the reference forecast cited across trade press; underlying drought, heat and climate pressures in major origin countries continue to be flagged as the structural risk that could delay that normalization.
Sources: Barchart; FoodIngredientsFirst; FoodNavigator; FoodAdditivesAsia; ICCO daily price data.
8. South Africa & Africa Focus
Maize: Record Harvest, Export Recovery — But Logistics Strain
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee has lifted its commercial maize crop estimate to 17.064 million tonnes, up 1.36% from the prior estimate and on track for a record harvest. Agbiz is targeting 3 million tonnes of exports for 2026/27, which would mark a partial recovery from the 2 million tonnes shipped in 2025/26 — itself down sharply from the 4.1 million tonne peak in 2021/22. Zimbabwe remains South Africa’s largest single maize buyer; Transnet’s Durban terminal is already loading export cargo, including a 40,000-tonne shipment to Vietnam aboard the MV Chang Hang Hong Hai.
Harvest logistics are proving complicated despite the favourable production picture: industry sources note approximately 5 million tonnes of carryover stock from the prior season compounding storage pressure, while flood damage to rural roads in certain growing areas is delaying delivery to silos. May 2026 tractor sales fell 15% year-on-year, a leading indicator some analysts are watching for signs of farmer financial strain despite the strong crop.
Citrus: Export Forecast Up, But Regional and Geopolitical Risks Flagged
The Citrus Growers’ Association’s first-round 2026 forecast pegs South Africa’s export crop at 209 million cartons, up from 203.9 million cartons in the prior season. Within the mandarin category specifically, Leanri volumes are forecast up 13% to 2.6 million cartons while Orri is expected down 11% to 2.4 million cartons; “other late mandarins” — driven by Royal Honey Murcott expansion — are projected up 11% to roughly 4 million cartons. The CGA has explicitly flagged Middle East market disruption risk and longer transit times as variables it is monitoring closely heading into the export campaign, a direct read-through from the Hormuz situation covered in Section 1.
A subsequent, more cautious industry note also references a 5% downward revision to citrus export estimates tied to severe flooding affecting key production and logistics areas — ESSFeed should treat the CGA’s headline 209-million-carton figure as a moving target pending the second-round mandarin estimate, typically released roughly a month after the first.
Wider African Context
- South Africa’s agricultural exports hit a record US$13.7bn in 2024 (NAMC), with grapes, apples/pears, maize and oranges among the leading product categories.
- Egypt and Morocco continue to anchor North African high-value crop exports — cotton, tomatoes and dates — with Egypt alone producing over 1.7 million tonnes of dates annually.
- South Africa remains a net wheat importer; cumulative 2024/25 marketing-year imports stood at 1.16 million tonnes against a seasonal forecast of 1.80 million tonnes, sourced from Russia, Lithuania, Poland, Latvia, Australia, Canada and Romania.
Sources: IOL Business Report; Milling Middle East & Africa Magazine; FruitToday; Fruitnet; AgroCentric; Agbiz SA Agricultural Market Viewpoint.
9. Watchlist — What to Track Next Week
- Strait of Hormuz vessel transit volumes: tracking toward Kpler’s 2–3 month normalization estimate; weekly tanker-crossing counts will be the leading indicator for fertilizer cost relief flowing through to Q3 crop input budgets.
- USDA’s 30 June Acreage Report — a key driver for corn/soybean price direction given current oversold technical positioning and managed-fund net-short exposure.
- ABARES second-round Australian crop estimates and confirmation of the chickpea production collapse magnitude.
- CGA second-round late mandarin and broader citrus volume confirmation, expected roughly one month after the first-round South African forecast.
- Continued monitoring of El Niño development risk and its read-through to both West African cocoa production and Southern African (drought-exposed) maize and grain harvests for the next planting cycle.
- Indonesian and African clove supply rebalancing as buyers continue shifting sourcing in response to the four-year Indonesian production decline.
Related: Global Crops And Grains Market 2026
Compiled by ESSFeed Research. This brief synthesizes publicly available trade press, government market reporting, and commodity data sources current as of 20 June 2026. Prices and forecasts are subject to change; verify against primary sources before use in trading or procurement decisions.
