Global Protein Market Insights: A Comprehensive Analysis by Livestock Analyst Jim Wyckoff
Date: February 17, 2025 | Reading Time: 9 Minutes
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USDA Weekly Report on Beef and Pork Export Sales
The latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates notable trends in the export sales of beef and pork for the year 2025. In the beef sector, net sales reached 13,100 metric tons, with major buyers including South Korea (7,400 MT, with minor adjustments), Japan (2,700 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT), Canada (500 MT), and Taiwan (400 MT). However, reductions were noted in exports to China, which saw a decrease of 500 MT. Overall, beef exports totaled 14,900 MT, with South Korea, Japan, China, Mexico, and Canada being the primary destinations.
In the pork category, net sales for 2025 amounted to 24,900 MT. Key markets included Japan (6,200 MT), Mexico (5,000 MT), South Korea (3,600 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,300 MT), and Colombia (2,200 MT). The total pork exports for the month reached 31,000 MT, with Mexico leading as the top importer, followed by South Korea, Japan, China, and Colombia.
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Record-Breaking US Egg Prices
The consumer price index has revealed that the average price of a dozen Grade A eggs in the United States soared to $4.95 in January 2025. This figure surpasses the previous record of $4.82 set two years ago and is more than double the low of $2.04 recorded in August 2023. The ongoing threat of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) impacting layer flocks, coupled with the upcoming peak demand period around Easter, suggests that relief in egg prices may not be forthcoming in the near future.
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USDA Monthly Report on Livestock and Dairy
The USDA’s latest monthly report has made several adjustments to the estimates of supply and utilization for livestock, poultry, and dairy products for 2024 and 2025. Notably, the forecast for beef production in 2025 has been raised following the resumption of cattle imports from Mexico, which was announced on February 1, 2025, under newly established protocols designed to prevent the spread of New World Screwworm.
The January Cattle report suggested a larger-than-expected calf crop for 2024, alongside a smaller decline in cattle outside feedlots. This development is anticipated to result in increased cattle placements and slaughter rates later in 2025. Conversely, pork production is projected to rise, primarily due to higher weights that are expected to offset a slower rate of slaughter, particularly in the first quarter.
Broiler production estimates remain unchanged, although a slower slaughter rate is anticipated in the first quarter due to HPAI-related culling, which may be counterbalanced by increased production in the third quarter. Turkey production forecasts have been lowered due to HPAI-related impacts and hatchery data, while egg production is expected to decline in each quarter of 2025, reflecting ongoing culling due to HPAI.
The report also highlights that beef exports in 2025 are projected to increase in response to rising production levels and sustained global demand. Conversely, pork exports are expected to decline in the latter half of the year due to slower growth in key markets. Additionally, the broiler export forecast has been adjusted downward, influenced by recent trade data and heightened global competition.
Cattle prices are expected to rise across all quarters of 2025, reflecting strong demand. Hog prices are forecasted to increase in the first quarter, while broiler prices remain stable, with predictions of higher prices in the latter half of the year. Turkey prices, however, are expected to decrease due to weak demand. Egg prices are anticipated to rise as the hen population gradually recovers from HPAI impacts.
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Global Food Price Index Trends
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization reported a 1.6% decline in the global food price index for January 2025. This decrease was primarily driven by falling prices in sugar, vegetable oils, and meat, which offset increases in dairy product and cereal grain prices. Year-over-year, meat prices have risen by 8.1%, dairy by 20.4%, and vegetable oils by 24.9%, while cereal grains and sugar prices have seen declines of 6.8% and 18.5%, respectively.
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US Pork Exports End 2024 Strongly
In December 2024, the U.S. exported 645.8 million pounds of pork, marking the second-highest monthly total for that month since 2019 and the peak monthly total since April 2024. Total pork shipments for the year reached 7.115 billion pounds, a 4.3% increase from the previous year, driven by significant demand from Mexico and South Korea. Conversely, beef exports for December totaled 258.9 million pounds, with the overall annual beef shipments declining slightly due to reduced exports to several key markets.
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Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Germany
On January 10, 2025, Germany confirmed its first outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) since 1988. The outbreak occurred at a water buffalo farm in Brandenburg, resulting in Germany losing its status as “free from foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination” by the World Organization for Animal Health. This situation has prompted several countries, including Canada, Mexico, South Korea, the U.S., and the UK, to impose import restrictions, which could lead to significant economic implications.
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Detection of New HPAI Strain in Nevada Dairy Cattle
The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has confirmed the first instance of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in dairy cattle in Nevada. This unprecedented discovery has led to quarantine measures and further investigations. APHIS is expected to release a detailed technical brief regarding the findings in the near future.
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Weekly USDA Dairy Report Highlights
Recent market data indicates various trends in dairy products. As of February 7, 2025, Grade AA butter closed at $2.3800 per pound, while cheese prices reflected mixed production schedules across regions. Fluid milk production has cooled due to winter weather, although demand for Class I remains strong. The organic dairy market shows promising growth, with a substantial increase in organic milk exports year-over-year.
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In summary, the global protein market is currently navigating a complex landscape characterized by fluctuating prices, disease outbreaks, and shifting consumer demand. Stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptable to these ongoing challenges and opportunities.
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