Trade Tensions Impact Soybean Flows China Tariffs and Phase One Deal 2025

Robert Gultig

30 December 2025

Trade Tensions Impact Soybean Flows China Tariffs and Phase One Deal 2025

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Written by Robert Gultig

30 December 2025

Trade tensions between the US and China have had a significant impact on soybean flows over the past few years. With China imposing tariffs on US soybeans and the Phase One trade deal set to expire in 2025, the global soybean market is facing uncertainty. In 2020, China imported over 60 million metric tons of soybeans, making it the largest importer in the world. Let’s take a closer look at how these trade tensions are affecting soybean flows and which countries, companies, and brands are most impacted.

1. United States: The US is the world’s largest producer of soybeans, with over 120 million metric tons produced in 2020. The ongoing trade tensions with China have led to a decrease in US soybean exports to the country.

2. China: As the largest importer of soybeans, China’s tariffs on US soybeans have forced the country to seek alternative sources. In 2020, China imported over 60 million metric tons of soybeans, with Brazil being its top supplier.

3. Brazil: Brazil is the second-largest producer of soybeans, with over 130 million metric tons produced in 2020. The country has become a key supplier to China, benefiting from the trade tensions between the US and China.

4. Argentina: Argentina is another major player in the soybean market, with over 50 million metric tons produced in 2020. The country has also seen an increase in soybean exports to China due to the trade tensions.

5. Canada: Canada is a significant soybean producer, with over 7 million metric tons produced in 2020. The country has also seen an increase in soybean exports to China as a result of the trade tensions.

6. Russia: Russia has been increasing its soybean production in recent years, with over 4 million metric tons produced in 2020. The country is looking to expand its exports to China and other markets affected by the trade tensions.

7. Ukraine: Ukraine is another emerging player in the soybean market, with over 3 million metric tons produced in 2020. The country has been increasing its soybean exports to China and other countries affected by the trade tensions.

8. Bunge Limited: Bunge Limited is one of the world’s largest agribusiness companies, with a significant presence in the soybean market. The company has been impacted by the trade tensions between the US and China, affecting its soybean trading business.

9. Archer Daniels Midland Company: Archer Daniels Midland Company is another major player in the soybean market, with operations in both production and trading. The company has been navigating the challenges of the trade tensions to maintain its market share.

10. Cargill, Incorporated: Cargill, Incorporated is a global leader in the agribusiness industry, with a strong presence in the soybean market. The company has been adjusting its operations to adapt to the changing trade dynamics.

11. Louis Dreyfus Company: Louis Dreyfus Company is a key player in the global soybean market, with a focus on trading and processing. The company has been impacted by the trade tensions, affecting its soybean trading activities.

12. Wilmar International Limited: Wilmar International Limited is a leading agribusiness group in Asia, with a significant presence in the soybean market. The company has been exploring new opportunities in response to the trade tensions between the US and China.

13. COFCO Group: COFCO Group is a state-owned Chinese agribusiness company, with a strong focus on soybean imports. The company has been diversifying its soybean sourcing to reduce its reliance on US imports.

14. China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO): COFCO is another major Chinese agribusiness company with a focus on soybean imports. The company has been expanding its sourcing channels to mitigate the impact of the trade tensions.

15. Dreyfus Company: Dreyfus Company is a global commodity trading company with a significant presence in the soybean market. The company has been adjusting its trading strategies to navigate the uncertainties caused by the trade tensions.

16. ADM: ADM is a global agribusiness company with operations in soybean production and trading. The company has been exploring new markets and partnerships to offset the effects of the trade tensions.

17. China Grain Reserves Corporation (Sinograin): Sinograin is a state-owned Chinese company responsible for managing the country’s grain reserves, including soybeans. The company has been working to ensure a stable supply of soybeans amid the trade tensions.

18. Cargill: Cargill is a major player in the global soybean market, with operations in production, trading, and processing. The company has been diversifying its sourcing to mitigate the impact of the trade tensions.

19. LDC: LDC is a leading commodity trading company with a strong presence in the soybean market. The company has been adapting its trading activities to navigate the challenges posed by the trade tensions.

20. Bunge: Bunge is a global agribusiness company with a focus on soybean production and trading. The company has been exploring new markets and partnerships to maintain its market share in the face of the trade tensions.

Insights:

The trade tensions between the US and China have had a significant impact on the global soybean market, affecting countries, companies, and brands worldwide. As the Phase One trade deal is set to expire in 2025, uncertainty looms over the future of soybean flows between the two countries. Countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Canada have benefited from the trade tensions by increasing their soybean exports to China. Major agribusiness companies like Bunge, Archer Daniels Midland, and Cargill have been adjusting their strategies to navigate the changing trade dynamics. Moving forward, it will be crucial for stakeholders in the soybean market to continue monitoring developments and adapting to the evolving trade landscape.

Related Analysis: View Previous Industry Report

Author: Robert Gultig in conjunction with ESS Research Team

Robert Gultig is a veteran Managing Director and International Trade Consultant with over 20 years of experience in global trading and market research. Robert leverages his deep industry knowledge and strategic marketing background (BBA) to provide authoritative market insights in conjunction with the ESS Research Team. If you would like to contribute articles or insights, please join our team by emailing support@essfeed.com.
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