The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates predict that cargo volumes at U.S. ports will remain high in the next three months despite ongoing tariff pressures. The Global Port Tracker reported a 13.4% year-over-year increase in loaded import volumes at the nation’s top ports in January, with a projected 6.1% increase in February and a 10.8% increase in March. This surge in imports is driven by retailers trying to get ahead of rising tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, particularly on goods from China.
President Trump’s actions, including a 20% increase in import taxes on Chinese goods and the threat of reciprocal tariffs, have led to shippers frontloading their shipments to avoid higher costs. While there has been uncertainty surrounding tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, the impact on port volumes is expected to be minimal as most of these goods are transported by truck or rail.
In addition to tariffs, the United States Trade Representative has proposed implementing fees for ships built in China docking at U.S. ports. This could result in additional costs being passed on to cargo owners and consumers, potentially leading to a shift towards larger vessels and shipment consolidation to avoid multiple port calls in the U.S. This change could negatively impact smaller ports in the country.
Despite the current increase in import volumes, a decline is expected in June and July, partially due to frontloading ahead of a port strike last fall. This temporary decrease in volumes may put additional pressure on the supply chain and smaller ports in the U.S.
Overall, the outlook for U.S. port activity remains uncertain due to ongoing tariff disputes and proposed fee increases. While imports are expected to remain high in the short term, the long-term impact of these trade policies on port operations and supply chain efficiency is yet to be fully realized. It will be important for stakeholders in the industry to closely monitor developments and adapt their strategies accordingly to navigate the changing landscape of international trade.
