Global Dairy Market Forecast for 2026
The dairy industry is a crucial component of the global food and beverage sector, with various countries playing significant roles in production and export. In 2026, the global milk supply is projected to experience modest growth, driven by key players such as Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, the European Union, New Zealand, and the United States. Each of these countries has its unique factors influencing production and export, which will impact the overall dairy market dynamics.
Industry Insights
- Global milk supply set to grow modestly in 2026, with notable gains in Argentina, Australia, and Brazil.
- Cheese emerges as a strong export performer, with major increases expected from the US, New Zealand, and Argentina.
- China and Brazil remain key dairy importers, driving demand for whey, cheese, and milk powders.
Argentina: Milk Growth Drives Export Increases
Argentina is expected to see a 4% increase in milk production in 2026, reaching 12.0 million metric tons (MMT). Favorable weather conditions, strong feed reserves, increased cow inventories, stable exchange rates, and herd expansion are the key factors contributing to this growth. The additional milk volumes are likely to support exports, particularly in powders and cheese. Export categories such as whole milk powder (WMP), skimmed milk powder (SMP), butter, anhydrous milk fat (AMF), cheese, and fluid milk are all set to increase in 2026.
Australia: Focus on Cheese Export Growth
Australia’s milk production is forecasted to rebound by 1.8% in 2026, reaching 8.65 million MT. Cheese will be the country’s strongest export performer, with exports expected to reach 175,000 MT, the highest since 2008. However, skimmed milk powder (SMP) exports are likely to remain unchanged at 155,000 MT, while whole milk powder (WMP) exports are forecasted to decline by 13% due to production shifts.
Brazil: Import Dependence Continues
Brazil’s milk production is expected to increase by 2.6% in 2026, reaching 26.16 million MT. Despite expanded production, exports are unlikely to grow significantly, with only slight increases forecasted in cheese, butter, and WMP exports. Brazil remains heavily import-dependent, with significant imports of processed dairy products such as WMP, SMP, cheese, and butter.
China: Whey Demand Surges
China’s milk production is forecasted to remain steady in 2026, with a focus on dairy imports. Whey demand is expected to surge due to feed and formula applications. Cheese imports are projected to increase modestly, while powder imports will remain stable. China’s role in the global dairy market will continue to be import-focused, especially for whey and cheese.
EU: Declines in Dairy Exports
The European Union is forecasted to experience a 0.5% decline in milk production in 2026, leading to decreases in major dairy exports. Cheese, butter, fluid milk, whole milk powder (WMP), and skimmed milk powder (SMP) exports are all facing declines due to herd contraction, disease outbreaks, and regulatory hurdles.
New Zealand: Record Cheese Exports Expected
New Zealand is set to produce 21.9 million MT of fluid milk in 2026, supporting export volumes. The country’s focus remains on high-value exports such as cheese, butter, anhydrous milk fat (AMF), and specialty ingredients. Record cheese exports of around 430,000 MT are projected, along with steady exports of WMP, SMP, and butter + AMF.
USA: Cheese Exports to Reach New Highs
The US is forecasted to produce 106.19 million MT of fluid milk in 2026, with cheese production expected to drive higher consumption and exports. Cheese exports are predicted to exceed 620,000 MT, setting new records. The US is positioned as a top global dairy exporter, with strong shipments of cheese, SMP, dried whey products, lactose, butter, and fluid dairy products.
Conclusion: Cheese as a Key Export Commodity
Cheese emerges as a key export commodity in the global dairy market for 2026, with increasing or stable exports in major regions. The US, New Zealand, and Argentina are expected to lead in cheese exports, reflecting strong global demand. This trend signifies opportunities for market absorption and further growth in the dairy industry.
FAQ
- What are the key factors driving milk production growth in Argentina?
- Which country is forecasted to have the highest cheese exports in 2026?
- Why does Brazil remain import-dependent despite increased milk production?
- What is the projected trend for cheese exports in the US?
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