Modest Growth Forecast in Pork Production for 2025 Amid Global Trade Uncertainty
According to RaboResearch’s latest quarterly pork report, a modest growth in pork production is anticipated for the year 2025, tempered by ongoing political uncertainty that looms over global trade. The report highlights that pork producers are adopting a ‘cautious yet strategic’ approach to expansion, carefully navigating through stabilizing profitability while maintaining a positive demand outlook for the coming year.
Despite expectations of declining production costs, uncertainties related to animal health and global trade continue to present challenges. Consequently, producers are prioritizing productivity and cost efficiency while adapting to the evolving preferences of consumers. Although producers enjoyed positive profit margins in 2024, the pace of herd expansion remains sluggish. The report notes slight production increases in key markets such as China, Brazil, and Mexico, which are counterbalanced by declines in the European Union (EU) and the United States. According to Chenjun Pan, Senior Analyst for Animal Protein at RaboResearch, favorable production conditions are anticipated for 2025, and sustained profitability will be crucial for attracting much-needed investment.
Stable global pork supply is projected, supported by manageable feed grain prices and improved animal health. However, the overall supply growth is forecasted to be less than 1% this year. A notable aspect of the report is the regional variation in supply and demand balances; the U.S., China, and Brazil are expected to maintain sufficient supply levels, while tighter conditions may be seen in the EU, Japan, and the Philippines.
Competitive Pricing Landscape
In 2024, pork prices lagged behind those of other meats, but the outlook appears brighter for 2025. Ms. Pan points out that lower feed costs and increased productivity have enhanced pork’s competitiveness, a trend that is likely to persist. “Pork is well-positioned due to its reasonable pricing and availability, especially as beef prices remain elevated and demand for poultry remains strong,” she stated.
Demand for pork is expected to rise in North America and Brazil, where beef supply is constrained. In Europe, seasonal price fluctuations may occur, while Asia will likely experience mixed price dynamics, with downward pressure in markets like China and South Korea, contrasted with strong prices in Japan and Southeast Asia.
Impacts of Global Trade Uncertainty
Ms. Pan has cautioned that former President Trump’s tariff policies could significantly disrupt trade flows. “High tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada could provoke retaliatory measures that would adversely affect agricultural goods, including pork,” she noted. In addition to these trade tensions, geopolitical factors, such as the potential for a ceasefire in Ukraine, introduce further uncertainty regarding grain prices, which in turn influences pork production costs.
Furthermore, the industry faces challenges from disease outbreaks, including the recent foot-and-mouth disease incident in Germany, which complicates the trade landscape. In this volatile environment, supply chain participants may increasingly focus on risk mitigation strategies.
Compounding these issues are ongoing outbreaks of African swine fever and the porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus (PRRSv), both of which remain significant threats to production and export capabilities. In response, the pork industry, alongside government entities, is investing in various solutions such as vaccination programs, enhanced biosecurity measures, and animal health products. At the same time, sustainability and animal welfare concerns are driving an urgent need for innovation across the sector.
Investments in technology are on the rise, encompassing automation, digitalization, and artificial intelligence. Many large-scale farms have already begun incorporating sensors to aid in disease diagnosis and monitoring, reflecting a proactive approach to addressing the challenges faced by the industry.
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