Bond G Spread Agency Spreads Over Treasuries 2026
The bond market has experienced significant shifts in 2023, with interest rates and inflation impacting spreads across various sectors. As of mid-2023, the U.S. Treasury yield has been fluctuating around 3.5%, while corporate bond spreads have widened, reflecting increased risk perception among investors. The bond market, valued at approximately $46 trillion globally, is witnessing a growing interest in agency spreads, particularly as agencies seek to navigate economic uncertainties. This report highlights the top 20 agency spreads over Treasuries for 2026, offering insights into their respective performances and market implications.
1. Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae is a leading government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) in the U.S. mortgage market, holding over $3 trillion in outstanding debt. The agency’s spreads over Treasuries have been around 50 basis points, influenced by mortgage rates and housing market dynamics.
2. Freddie Mac
Freddie Mac, another GSE, holds approximately $2 trillion in outstanding securities. Its bond spreads have been similarly aligned with Fannie Mae, typically ranging between 40-60 basis points over Treasuries as it supports the housing finance system.
3. Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB)
With a combined outstanding debt of about $1 trillion, FHLBs have consistently offered spreads of 20-30 basis points over Treasuries. Their performance is closely tied to the stability of the housing finance sector and regional bank health.
4. GNMA (Ginnie Mae)
Ginnie Mae guarantees a significant amount of mortgage-backed securities, totaling around $2 trillion. Its spreads over Treasuries tend to be lower, reflecting its government backing, averaging 30-40 basis points.
5. Export-Import Bank of the United States
The Export-Import Bank facilitates U.S. exports and has approximately $100 billion in outstanding bonds. Its spreads have been around 80-100 basis points over Treasuries, driven by economic conditions influencing international trade.
6. Federal Farm Credit Banks
The Farm Credit System, with about $300 billion in debt, provides funding for agriculture. Its spreads have fluctuated between 30-50 basis points over Treasuries, reflecting agricultural commodity prices and rural economic conditions.
7. Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)
TVA has about $30 billion in debt and typically experiences spreads of 70-90 basis points over Treasuries. Its performance is affected by energy demand and regulatory changes in the power sector.
8. National Rural Utilities Cooperative Finance Corporation (CFC)
CFC supports rural electric cooperatives with around $30 billion in bonds. Spreads are generally 80-100 basis points over Treasuries, influenced by energy prices and rural infrastructure investments.
9. California Infrastructure and Economic Development Bank
With about $5 billion in bonds, this agency focuses on infrastructure projects. Its spreads can reach up to 100 basis points over Treasuries, driven by local economic development needs.
10. New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority
This authority has approximately $10 billion in outstanding bonds. Spreads over Treasuries average around 90-110 basis points, influenced by New York’s economic climate and water infrastructure needs.
11. Massachusetts Development Finance Agency
With about $4 billion in bonds, this agency supports various development projects. Spreads have typically been around 100 basis points over Treasuries, reflecting the demand for local funding.
12. Michigan Finance Authority
The Michigan Finance Authority holds approximately $3 billion in debt. Its spreads over Treasuries are generally around 90-110 basis points, influenced by state economic performance and infrastructure projects.
13. Washington State Housing Finance Commission
This commission has about $2 billion in bonds, with spreads of 70-90 basis points over Treasuries. Its performance is closely related to housing market trends and interest rates.
14. Ohio Housing Finance Agency
With approximately $1.5 billion in outstanding bonds, Ohio’s agency has spreads averaging 80-100 basis points over Treasuries, influenced by local housing initiatives and economic conditions.
15. Pennsylvania Housing Finance Agency
The agency has around $1 billion in bonds, with spreads typically between 70-90 basis points over Treasuries. It plays a crucial role in the state’s housing finance and affordable housing programs.
16. Colorado Housing and Finance Authority
With about $1 billion in outstanding bonds, Colorado’s agency experiences spreads of 60-80 basis points over Treasuries, driven by local housing demand and economic growth.
17. Illinois Finance Authority
This authority has approximately $2 billion in debt, with spreads around 90-110 basis points over Treasuries, reflecting the state’s budgetary pressures and infrastructure needs.
18. New Jersey Economic Development Authority
With about $1 billion in outstanding bonds, New Jersey’s authority experiences spreads of 100-120 basis points over Treasuries, influenced by state economic recovery efforts.
19. Virginia Housing Development Authority
The agency holds approximately $1 billion in debt, with spreads of 70-90 basis points over Treasuries, driven by housing market conditions and economic factors in Virginia.
20. Florida Housing Finance Corporation
With about $1 billion in bonds, Florida’s agency has spreads averaging 80-100 basis points over Treasuries, reflecting the state’s booming population and housing market.
### Insights
As we move toward 2026, the bond market is expected to remain sensitive to interest rate changes and inflationary pressures. The current average spread for agency bonds ranges from 20 to 120 basis points over Treasuries, reflecting varying levels of risk and investor sentiment. According to recent forecasts, the total volume of agency debt is projected to increase by 5% annually, driven by ongoing housing and infrastructure financing needs. Investors should closely monitor these trends as they navigate an evolving economic landscape, particularly as the Federal Reserve continues to adjust monetary policy in response to inflation and economic growth.
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