Rabobank Analysis: The Middle East Crisis and Its Ripples Across the Global Poultry Industry
The global food and beverage landscape is currently navigating a period of intense volatility as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate. According to a recent strategic analysis by Rabobank, the conflict involving Iran has moved beyond a localized security concern, evolving into a significant disruption for the international poultry trade.
While the Middle East (including Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkey) represents only 8% of the global market size, its strategic importance is outsized. The region accounts for nearly 15% of world poultry trade and contributes approximately 10% of global production growth. As of March 2026, the stability of this growth is under threat.
Supply Chain Disruptions and Market Vulnerability
The outbreak of conflict has destabilized critical trade flows and the availability of essential inputs. Despite massive regional investments intended to bolster food security and resilience, several nations remain highly exposed to supply shocks.
Key Vulnerabilities:
- Input Shortages: The poultry industry relies heavily on imported feed grains (corn and soy), amino acids, and genetic stock (hatching eggs).
- Regional Hotspots: Countries with high import dependency—including Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Bahrain, and the UAE—face heightened risks of supply gaps.
- Infrastructure Stress: Direct damage to physical infrastructure and labor shortages in active conflict zones have led to immediate localized supply-demand imbalances.
The Global Impact: A Challenge for Brazil
Brazil, the world’s largest supplier of chicken meat to the Middle East, is at the forefront of this commercial challenge. With the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz as of late February 2026, logistics have become a primary hurdle.
- Rerouting Logistics: Major shipping lines like Maersk and MSC have suspended Gulf operations. Brazilian exporters are forced to reroute via the Red Sea or Oman, adding 10–14 days to transit times.
- Rising Costs: These alternative routes increase fuel consumption by up to 40% and significantly hike insurance premiums.
- Market Diversification: Analysts suggest Brazil may look to redirect shipments to Europe or Southeast Asia, which could temporarily depress prices in those markets while causing spikes in the Middle East.
The “Protein of Choice” in Economic Uncertainty
Interestingly, Rabobank notes that poultry often remains the “protein of choice” during periods of uncertainty. Its high feed-conversion efficiency and lower price point compared to beef or pork make it a preferred option for cost-conscious consumers, even as production costs rise.
“The duration and intensity of the conflict’s escalation will determine the extent of the disruptions for regional industries and international suppliers.” — Nan-Dirk Mulder, Senior Global Specialist Animal Protein, Rabobank.
Industry Source Reference Table
| Source | Focus Area | Key URL |
| Rabobank Knowledge | Core Strategic Analysis | Rabobank.com |
| PoultryMed | Operational & Infrastructure Impact | Poultrymed.com |
| The AgriBiz | Brazilian Agribusiness Risks | TheAgriBiz.com |
| Zootecnica International | Market Dependency & Growth Drivers | ZootecnicaInternational.com |
| The Cattle Site | Feed & Additive Disruptions | TheCattleSite.com |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. Why is the Middle East crisis affecting global poultry prices?
The region is a major trade hub. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea force ships to take longer routes, increasing freight and insurance costs. Additionally, the Middle East accounts for 15% of global trade, so any supply gap there ripples through the global market.
2. How are local Middle Eastern producers affected?
In the short term, local producers might benefit from higher prices due to reduced competition from imports. However, they face severe risks regarding the availability of imported feed and hatching eggs, which could halt production entirely if logistics remain blocked.
3. Which countries are most at risk?
According to Rabobank, the most vulnerable nations are those with high import dependency, specifically Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Bahrain, and the UAE.
4. What does this mean for Brazilian chicken exporters?
Brazil must find alternative routes to reach its customers. This includes offloading cargo at different ports or rerouting around Africa, both of which increase costs and delay delivery, squeezing profit margins for exporters.
Would you like me to draft a summary of how these shipping delays might specifically impact the European poultry market?
