Austevoll Seafood posted a Q2 2026 revenue miss due to lower salmon slaughter volumes and weaker trout pricing, with Peru’s repeated anchovy fishing suspensions constraining fishmeal inputs and undercutting feed cost optimization for aquaculture producers.
The Q2 Earnings Shock
Austevoll Seafood reported Q2 2026 revenue of NOK 8.68 billion, significantly below the NOK 9.50 billion average estimate from six sell-side analysts. The shortfall triggered a net loss of NOK 254 million for the quarter, a sharp reversal from Q1 2026’s net profit of NOK 644 million. Adjusted EBITDA declined to NOK 1.16 billion, down from NOK 1.985 billion in Q1, while adjusted EBIT fell to NOK 572 million from NOK 1.045 billion.
The company offered limited commentary but attributed the miss to two specific operational headwinds: lower volumes of slaughtered salmon and weaker price realization for trout. Non-cash fair value adjustments on biological assets drove the net loss, a typical feature of aquaculture earnings volatility. Critically, the company declined to provide forward guidance for Q3, Q4, or the full year—a rare move that signals uncertainty about operating conditions ahead.
The Q2 miss follows a strong Q1 2026 in which Austevoll beat consensus EBITDA expectations by 11% (NOK 1.985B vs. consensus NOK 1.796B), underpinned by better pricing dynamics in whitefish and pelagic segments. That outperformance masked underlying volume pressure: Q1 total raw material intake declined 21% year-over-year to 528,000 tonnes, yet revenue held flat at NOK 9.8 billion due to price support. Q2 appears to have broken that price-support mechanism, with volumes declining further while prices fell.
Peru’s Anchovy Crisis Cascades Through Feed Costs
The proximate cause of Austevoll’s revenue miss is traceable to Peru’s first-season 2026 anchovy fishing suspension. Peru’s Ministry of Production (PRODUCE) authorized the 2026 first season with an historically low quota of 1.9 million tonnes—down 36% from 3.0 million tonnes in 2025. The reduction reflected both depleted biomass from prior-year fishing and Coastal El Niño oceanographic stress.
Within weeks of the season opening in May, PRODUCE suspended fishing entirely due to high juvenile catch and warm water conditions. The suspension, initially set for May 12–May 27, was extended through June 10, then extended indefinitely with no announced reopening date. By early June, landings had reached only 471,000 tonnes (24% of quota), with over 50% of that catch being juvenile anchovy unsuitable for immediate processing.
Peru accounts for approximately 20% of global fishmeal production. The North-Central zone, where the suspension is in effect, is by far the largest fishing area. The supply disruption directly constrains fishmeal availability and pushes prices higher across feed supply chains. For Austevoll’s salmon farming operations in Norway and Chile, fishmeal and fish oil represent the largest feed ingredient costs. When Peru’s anchovy supply tightens, feed costs spike, compressing aquaculture margins unless producers can simultaneously achieve higher salmon prices—precisely the dynamic that broke in Q2.
Salmon Pricing Under Pressure from Oversupply
Farmed salmon prices in Q2 2026 weakened despite Peru’s anchovy shortage, a counterintuitive dynamic that reveals underlying demand softness. Kontali’s 2026 supply forecasts project global salmon production growth of just 2.4% (Norway 2.2%), a sharp deceleration from the 12.1% growth recorded in 2025. However, the market balance remains delicate: Q1 2026 saw supply growth of 12.2% globally and 9.7% in Norway, driven by high-volume production in late 2025 that rolled into early 2026.
That supply overhang compressed Q2 pricing. Trout, which accounts for 39% of Austevoll’s harvest volume via subsidiary Lerøy Sjøtroll, was particularly hard-hit. Trout prices typically run 15–25% below salmon prices, but in Q2 they declined more sharply than salmon, suggesting buyer resistance to higher volumes. Austevoll’s adjusted EBIT per kilogram for salmon farming fell to NOK 5.6 in Q1 (from NOK 12.7 a year earlier); Q2 figures were not disclosed but are likely negative or near-zero given the net loss reported.
The timing is difficult: Austevoll’s full-year 2026 harvest guidance remains unchanged at 73,000 GWT (73,000 gross weight tonnes), of which 34,000 GWT is trout. However, the company signaled in Q1 guidance that “costs are expected to be lower in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026,” a signal that proved optimistic given Peru’s fishing suspension and the resulting feed cost pressure.
Austral Group: Peru Exposure Unwinds
Austevoll’s Peruvian subsidiary Austral Group bore the brunt of the Q2 miss. In Q1 2026, Austral posted EBITDA of NOK 283 million, beating consensus of NOK 102 million, driven by strong pelagic performance before the fishing suspension took effect. Following the anchovy quota revision in Q1 (from 334,000 tonnes own-catch guidance to 289,000 tonnes), Austral’s outlook deteriorated through Q2 as the suspension extended and juvenile-dominated catches became the norm.
Austral’s Chilean operations, FoodCorp, also face margin pressure. FoodCorp maintained own-catch guidance of 135,000 tonnes in Q1 guidance but signaled that “catch volumes weakened in March and remained soft into the second quarter.” A new international quota tax of $95 per tonne (implemented in 2026 on purchases of quota from outside Chilean waters) adds structural cost headwind that cannot be quickly offset by operational improvements.
Austevoll’s 50%-owned joint venture Pelagia (for meal and oil operations) reiterated 2026 raw material intake guidance of 802,000 tonnes for meal and oil and 257,000 tonnes for dried herring concentrate. However, Pelagia’s input sourcing is tightly coupled to Peru’s anchovy availability. If the suspension persists through Q3 and Q4, Pelagia’s guidance will likely be revised downward, further pressuring Austevoll’s consolidated earnings.
Procurement Implications: Sourcing Outlook
For procurement teams sourcing farmed salmon, Q2 represents a pivotal inflection point. Prices weakened despite tight feed ingredient supply, signaling that demand does not support supply-push pricing. This is typically a precursor to a price trough in commodity aquaculture pricing cycles.
Buyers sourcing salmon for Q3 and Q4 2026 should lock supply now. Austevoll and peer producers (Bremanger, Salmar, SalMar) will likely prioritize cash flow generation as feed costs rise and biological fair value adjustments create earnings volatility. Producers may offer volume incentives or fixed-price supply agreements to de-risk revenue. Similarly, trout supply should tighten as weaker pricing encourages production pulls and herd reductions.
For fishmeal and fish oil procurement, Peru’s anchovy suspension creates an acute supply crunch through Q3. Buyers dependent on South American fishmeal should diversify to North Atlantic sources (from Pelagia) or consider strategic reserves if cash allows. Fishmeal prices are likely to remain elevated through mid-2026, then soften if Peru’s fishing season reopens. Forward contracting for H2 2026 fishmeal at current spot levels represents reasonable risk management.
FAQ
Q1: Is Austevoll’s Q2 miss a company-specific issue or sector-wide?
Sector-wide but with company-specific amplification. All Norwegian salmon producers face Peru’s anchovy shortage and the resulting feed cost pressure. However, Austevoll’s 39% trout mix (vs. ~5–10% for peers like SalMar and Bremanger) creates higher exposure to weaker trout pricing in oversupplied markets. The company’s Chilean and Peruvian operations add pelagic and aquaculture risk that pure-play Norwegian salmon producers don’t carry. Expect all producers to miss guidance through Q2–Q3, but Austevoll’s miss will likely be the largest due to geographic and species mix.
Q2: Will salmon prices recover if Peru’s fishing season reopens?
Partially. If Peru’s anchovy suspension ends in June or July 2026, fishmeal supply will normalize by Q3, reducing feed cost pressure on salmon producers. However, salmon prices are unlikely to recover sharply unless global demand accelerates—which current signals suggest is unlikely. More likely scenario: feed costs decline 5–10% from Q2 peaks, compressing margins further and extending the pricing trough into Q4 2026. Buyers should not expect salmon price recovery until 2027, when supply growth is forecast to slow materially.
Q3: Should procurement diversify away from Austevoll’s farmed salmon?
Not necessarily. Austevoll remains a reliable, quality-focused producer with established supply chains and quality certifications. However, procurement should expect supply-chain volatility through mid-2026 as the company works through feed cost shocks and price pressure. Establish alternative suppliers (SalMar, Bremanger, Salmar) for mission-critical sourcing, but maintain Austevoll relationships for volume and specialty products (trout). Use Q2–Q3 weakness to negotiate multi-quarter supply agreements at fixed or index-plus pricing, locking certainty before producers constrain supply to manage cash flow.
Sources
- Investing.com. “Austevoll Seafood Reports Q2 Revenue Miss on Lower Salmon Volumes.” August 19, 2026.
- Salmon Business. “Austevoll Seafood: Q1 2026 EBITDA Beats Consensus by 11%.” July 3, 2026.
- Austevoll Seafood ASA. “Financial Report Q4 and Preliminary Figures 2025.” February 23, 2026.
- MarketScreener. “Austevoll Seafood Earnings Document, Q1 2026.” May 12, 2026.
- SeafoodSource. “Peru Extends Anchovy Fishing Suspension Again, Threatening Global Fishmeal Supply.” June 12, 2026.
- IndexBox. “Peru Extends Anchovy Fishing Suspension to June 10, 2026.” June 1, 2026.
- Undercurrent News. “Peru Sets First-Season Anchovy Quota at 1.91M Metric Tons, Down 36%.” April 1, 2026.
- Aquafeed.com. “Peruvian Anchovy Fishing Ban Extended Again.” June 11, 2026.
- Kontali Analytics. “Global Salmon Supply Growth Estimates 2025–2026.” May 2026.
- We Are Aquaculture. “Warm Sea Conditions Force New Temporary Suspension of Anchovy Fishing in Peru.” June 2, 2026.