Offshore wheat firmed less than one percent. ASX December eastern Australia wheat eased 2pc. All other markets settled unchanged to lower.
International
According to Russia’s Ag Minister Russia maintains its 2024 forecast of 132Mt, including wheat at 86Mt. The grain export forecast remains 60Mt.
Black Sea market analyst SovEcon increased its Russia wheat crop forecast to 83.3Mt from 82.9Mt reflecting yields close to record levels in Siberia and the Urals. Wet weather in those areas may complicating harvest and lowering quality. Unharvested crops should be near average yield. Its corn crop estimate was cut to 11.9Mt from 13.4Mt, the lowest level since 2018, due to adverse weather with southern regions such as Krasnodar seeing close to record low yields. The barley forecast was cut to 18.2Mt from 19.3Mt due to lower area and yields.
China’s soybean imports from the US jumped threefold in July from a year earlier but Brazilian supplies still took the bulk of the market share. China imported 475,392t from the US, compared with 142,129t a year earlier. Imports from Brazil eased slightly to to 9.12Mt. For January-July, China’s imports from Brazil totalled 43.55Mt, a 12pc increase from the same period last year. Total arrivals from the US are at 12.63Mt, down 25pc year on year.
Michael Cordonnier left his US corn forecast unchanged at 183.5 bushels/acre with production of 15.17 billion bushels. Dr Cordonnier noted weather continues to be beneficial for grain filling though the next few weeks are likely to see soil moisture decline. He left his bean yield estimate at 53.5 bushels/acre with production of 4.61 billion bushels. He has a neutral bias for both crops.
Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. are facing a potential nationwide shutdown on Thursday if they cannot reach an agreement with their unionised workers, affecting over 9,000 employees. The impending strike threatens to disrupt the movement of essential goods like wheat, chemicals, and fertilisers, with industries bracing for billions in losses.
Tunisia’s state grains office is looking to purchase 75kt of soft wheat, for Sept-Oct shipment.
Japan’s MAFF is seeking 81,442t milling wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.
Australia
Yesterday’s bids in the west were largely unchanged with new crop canola bid around A$755/t FIS in most PZs, wheat $358 and barley $315.
In the east new crop bids were down a couple of dollars, with canola bid around $685, wheat $328 and barley $313.
Victorian old crop barley is being bid around +$10 over new crop highlighting low supply and a feeding demand still present, with new crop wheat being bid +$10 over old crop pricing full carry.