The global alcohol industry is not navigating a rough patch. It is in structural retreat — and the data leaves little room for ambiguity.
The World Health Organization places global alcohol consumption down 12% between 2010 and 2022. IWSR data shows spirits volume down 1.3%, wine down 2.4%, and beer down 0.2% in the most recent reporting period. The headline financials at the world’s largest producers tell the same story: Diageo’s operating profit dropped 27.8% in the fiscal year to June 2025. Core beer fell below half of Carlsberg’s revenue for the first time. Pernod Ricard completed the disposal of its international wine portfolio — including Jacob’s Creek, Brancott Estate, and Campo Viejo — in April 2025, brands collectively generating over 10 million cases annually.
These are not the numbers of a temporary correction. They are the numbers of an industry that is being structurally reshaped by shifting consumer behaviour — and the world’s largest producers are responding accordingly.
Table of Contents
The No- and Low-Alcohol Market: Size, Growth, and Commercial Reality
The strategic pivot to no- and low-alcohol is no longer speculative. The category has moved decisively from novelty to commercial scale, and the market data in 2026 reflects that transition.
IWSR estimates global no-alcohol volumes grew approximately 9% in 2025 across the ten leading markets, while traditional beverage alcohol grew at low single digits. The no-alcohol category is forecast to expand roughly 36% by volume between 2024 and 2029, reaching more than 18 billion servings per year. Between 2022 and 2024 alone, the no-alcohol segment recruited an estimated 61 million new drinkers worldwide. Foodtradenews
The global non-alcoholic beverages market was valued at approximately $1.39 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach $2.55 trillion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 8.0%. Consumer Edge
In beer specifically, the no-alcohol shift is already moving at meaningful commercial velocity in the U.S. Non-alcoholic beer sales reached nearly $583.4 million for the 52 weeks ending December 28, 2025 — a 22.1% increase in dollar sales and a 23.9% increase in case sales year-over-year, according to Circana data. The global non-alcoholic beer market is valued at $23.4 billion in 2025, forecast to reach $25.2 billion in 2026, with a projected CAGR of 7.70% through to 2036. Economic Research ServicePR Newswire
For Diageo, the non-alcoholic portfolio — led by Seedlip, Gordon’s 0.0, and Tanqueray 0.0 — grew approximately 40% organically in fiscal 2025, making Diageo the world’s largest non-alcoholic spirits brand owner at four times the size of its nearest competitor. In September 2024, it acquired Ritual Zero Proof, the top-selling non-alcoholic spirits brand in the U.S.
Carlsberg’s No-Alcohol Strategy: Science, Acquisition, and Behaviour Change
Carlsberg has gone furthest in treating the no-alcohol beverage strategy as a long-term structural growth opportunity rather than a defensive concession — and its results are backing the thesis.
Alcohol-free brews grew 4% organically and now represent 7% of total beer volumes in Western Europe, with five markets approaching the 10% threshold. The company launched 50 new alcohol-free brews in 2025 alone, making it the fastest-growing category in the Carlsberg portfolio outside Ukraine.
The Carlsberg Research Laboratory — the facility that invented the pH scale and produced a Nobel Prize winner in 2022 — now has over 100 scientists working specifically on alcohol-free flavour parity. The 2025 acquisition of British soft drinks company Britvic has added a functional beverages and vitamin-fortification dimension. Synergy targets have been upgraded to £110 million ($139 million), with 30% already delivered.
On the consumer behaviour side, Carlsberg is commercialising what it calls “Zebra Striping” — the pattern of alternating between alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks within a single occasion. Scan data shows consumers purchasing alcohol-free products also buy regular beer, a behaviour the company has turned into product architecture: mixed six-packs at European festivals and dual-format product launches under the same brand. Alcohol-free beer penetration is roughly equal across consumers above and below 35 years old — a finding that challenges the assumption that the sober curious trend is purely a generational story.
Pernod Ricard and the Spirits Sector’s Zero-Proof Pivot
In spirits, the formulation challenge is different but the strategic direction is consistent with the broader industry shift. Producers are redirecting existing expertise in flavour extraction, botanicals, and blending toward high-quality zero-proof alternatives that can compete on sensory experience.
Pernod Ricard has launched Beefeater 0.0% and Seagram’s 0.0%, and took a stake in Almave — the Lewis Hamilton-backed non-alcoholic blue agave spirit distilled in Jalisco. The company’s decision to shed its entire international wine portfolio signals where it sees future growth: premium spirits and no- and low-alcohol beverages rather than volume wine brands facing structural category decline.
Distillers are leveraging botanical expertise in ingredients such as mugwort, ginger, and palo santo to amplify low- and no-alcohol experiences, while combinations of botanicals with adaptogens and nootropics are increasingly being explored for functional RTD formats targeting health-conscious drinkers. McKinsey & Company
Why Wine Faces the Hardest Road in the No-Alcohol Transition
Wine faces the steepest volume decline of any major alcohol category — and Pernod Ricard’s decision to exit the segment is a clear signal of the trajectory.
Per capita wine consumption in France has roughly halved since the 1970s. UK consumption is down 14% since 2000. No- and low-alcohol wine is currently the fastest-growing segment within the category, and an EU wine policy package passed in December 2025 — validated by the European Parliament in February — introduces support for oenotourism, stronger promotion programmes, and harmonised QR code labelling.
But the European wine trade body CEEV is direct about the limits: no- and low-alcohol wine will not offset structural decline in the short term. The objective is not to reverse long-term volume trends overnight, but to ensure wine remains present in modern lifestyles and continues to hold cultural relevance — particularly through occasions where alcohol consumption is reduced or avoided entirely.
Three Forces Driving the Global Moderation Trend
Understanding the no-alcohol beverage market growth story requires understanding the demand-side forces behind it. Three structural drivers are converging — and none are temporary.
1. Health Consciousness and the Cancer Warning Debate
Approximately 30% of U.S. consumers are actively reducing their alcohol intake, motivated by a desire to avoid negative health impacts and a growing understanding of the holistic benefits of alcohol-free living — including better sleep, improved focus, and mental health outcomes. FDA
Regulatory pressure is intensifying alongside consumer awareness. The U.S. Surgeon General’s January 2025 advisory described alcohol as the third leading preventable cause of cancer in the U.S., linked to an estimated 100,000 cases and 20,000 deaths annually, and called for updated warning labels. Ireland is pressing ahead with on-pack cancer warnings effective September 2028, a measure currently facing open complaints at the European Commission from both the spirits and wine trade bodies.
Both Spirits Europe and CEEV advocate for harmonised QR-code-based labelling over on-pack warnings — but the regulatory direction of travel is clearly toward greater health transparency across alcohol products.
2. The Generational Shift in Drinking Behaviour
A generational shift is underway that producers describe as structural rather than cyclical. Younger consumers are not replicating the daily consumption patterns of older generations — the habits of daily wine at lunch and dinner that defined previous European consumption are not being reproduced. Millennials and Gen Z are not necessarily rejecting alcohol outright — they are drinking less frequently, choosing lower-ABV options, and alternating alcohol with non-alcoholic alternatives. Dry January, sober-curious behaviour, and mindful drinking have moved from fringe trends to mainstream cultural behaviours, particularly among younger demographics. Foodtradenews
3. GLP-1 Medications and Reduced Alcohol Cravings
The most watched emerging variable in the alcohol industry is the potential demand impact of GLP-1 weight-loss medications. The expansion of GLP-1 drugs such as Wegovy and Ozempic is reducing appetite, impulse consumption, and alcohol cravings for millions of users. With pill-based GLP-1 treatments entering the market in 2026, adoption is expected to accelerate. Alcohol sits squarely in the high-calorie, discretionary consumption category most exposed to this pressure. Foodtradenews
Carlsberg notes that initial data does not yet show a significant measurable impact on alcohol purchase volumes, but the company is monitoring GLP-1 rollout closely across new markets. Spirits Europe declined to comment on the topic, describing it as a medical issue outside its expertise. The question of how broadly GLP-1 adoption will affect alcohol volumes remains open — but the direction of the risk is clear.
What the Alcohol Industry Reinvention Means for F&B Manufacturers, Retailers, and Buyers
The structural shift in drinking behaviour is not a threat contained within the alcohol sector. Its implications ripple across the entire F&B value chain.
Ingredient and flavour suppliers serving the botanical, functional, and zero-proof beverages space are facing growing and sustained demand for the complex, sophisticated taste profiles that make no-alcohol products credible alternatives. Adaptogens, nootropics, and premium botanical extracts are increasingly core inputs rather than niche additions.
Retailers need to rethink ranging architecture. As non-alcoholic beer market volumes grow and consumer occasions shift toward mixed or moderation-led formats, shelf space allocation, placement adjacency, and promotional mechanics need to reflect a new category reality — not a legacy alcohol layout.
Foodservice operators are increasingly expected to offer curated, well-considered no-alcohol options across every daypart and service occasion. The consumer who chooses Carlsberg’s alcohol-free lager at a festival on Saturday is also the consumer dining in a restaurant on Wednesday.
CPG brands and manufacturers operating in adjacent beverage categories — soft drinks, functional waters, RTD formats — will find the moderation trend driving consumer traffic toward their products. Understanding where and how those occasions intersect with the no-alcohol pivot will be a source of competitive advantage.
The producers defining the next decade of this category are those treating no-alcohol not as damage control but as a growth architecture — with the science, supply chain, and commercial infrastructure to compete for a generation of drinkers who are choosing intentionality over volume.
Related
FAQ
Why is global alcohol consumption declining in 2026?
A structural combination of generational shifts, rising health consciousness, economic pressure on discretionary spending, and the growing influence of GLP-1 weight-loss medications is driving sustained moderation. The WHO records a 12% decline in global alcohol consumption between 2010 and 2022, with the trend continuing across major markets.
Which alcohol companies are leading the no- and low-alcohol strategy?
Diageo, Carlsberg, and Pernod Ricard are the most advanced in portfolio restructuring and R&D investment. Diageo is the world’s largest non-alcoholic spirits brand owner, Carlsberg has over 100 scientists working on alcohol-free flavour parity, and Pernod Ricard sold its entire international wine portfolio to concentrate on premium spirits and no-low alternatives.
How big is the no-alcohol beverage market in 2026?
The global non-alcoholic beer market alone is forecast at $25.2 billion in 2026, growing at a CAGR of 7.70% through 2036. The broader non-alcoholic beverages market is projected to grow from $1.49 trillion in 2026 to $2.55 trillion by 2033 at a CAGR of 8.0%.
What is the sober curious trend and how is it affecting the beverage industry?
The sober curious movement reflects a consumer shift toward intentional, moderation-led drinking behaviour — particularly among Millennials and Gen Z. Consumers are not abstaining entirely but are choosing when, how often, and how much they drink with greater deliberateness. This has driven double-digit growth in no-alcohol beer and spirits categories across retail and foodservice globally.
How do GLP-1 drugs affect alcohol demand?
Clinical research links GLP-1 medications such as Ozempic and Wegovy to reduced alcohol cravings and impulse consumption. With pill-based GLP-1 treatments entering the market in 2026, broader adoption is expected to accelerate. The long-term volume impact on alcohol categories remains closely watched by producers but is not yet fully quantified.
What does the alcohol industry’s reinvention mean for food manufacturers?
Ingredient suppliers in botanicals, adaptogens, and functional beverage inputs are seeing growing demand. Retailers and foodservice operators need to adapt ranging and service strategies. CPG brands in adjacent non-alcoholic beverage categories stand to benefit as consumers shift occasion spend toward moderation-led formats.
SOURCES
Food Ingredients First — How the alcohol industry is rethinking R&D amid falling global consumption, February 25, 2026: https://www.foodingredientsfirst.com/news/how-the-alcohol-industry-is-rethinking-r-d-amid-falling-global-consumption.html
IWSR Drinks Market Analysis — No- and Low-Alcohol Strategic Study 2025: https://www.theiwsr.com/no-and-low-alcohol-2025/
Beverage Industry — 2026 Beer Market Report: Moderation trends keep non-alcohol growing: https://www.bevindustry.com/articles/98202-2026-beer-market-report-moderation-trends-keep-non-alcohol-growing
Future Market Insights — Non-Alcoholic Beer Market Insights 2026 to 2036: https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/non-alcoholic-beer-market
Grand View Research — Non-Alcoholic Beverages Market Size Report, 2026–2033: https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/nonalcoholic-beverage-market
LearnBrands — Low/No Alcohol, RTDs, and Premiumization: Top Alcohol Industry Trends for 2026: https://www.learnbrands.com/post/2026-alcohol-industry-outlook-market-trends-reshaping-the-future-of-drinking
Mintel — Non-Alcoholic Drink Trends in the US: https://www.mintel.com/insights/food-and-drink/non-alcoholic-beverage-trends-in-the-us/
