Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff provides valuable insights into the global protein market, offering a comprehensive report on the latest developments in the industry. With years of experience and expertise in the field, Wyckoff’s analysis is highly regarded by industry professionals and stakeholders.
In a recent update on March 7, 2025, Wyckoff discussed the weekly USDA export sales for US beef and pork. The report highlighted that net US export sales of beef were down by 27% from the previous week, with notable increases in exports to countries such as South Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan, and Mexico. Similarly, pork exports saw a 32% increase in net sales, with significant exports to Mexico, China, Japan, Colombia, and South Korea. These export trends play a crucial role in shaping the global protein market and impacting prices and demand.
Furthermore, Wyckoff delved into the impact of US beef and pork exports on the corn and soybean markets. In 2024, pork and beef exports contributed significantly to the agriculture industry, with exports totaling $19.1 billion. The Juday Group’s independent study, commissioned by the US Meat Export Federation, highlighted the positive impact of these exports on corn, distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS), and soybeans. The study emphasized the value that red meat exports bring to producers, with beef and pork exports accounting for a significant portion of corn and soybean usage in 2024.
In another development, Brazil’s potential reentry into the Japanese beef market posed a challenge to the US, which currently leads in beef exports to Japan. Negotiations between Brazil and Japan to resume beef exports could disrupt the market dynamics, especially if Brazil can match the quality of US beef. The competition in the Japanese market underscores the complexities of international trade and the need for strategic market positioning.
Additionally, the USDA’s report on the Mexican poultry industry shed light on the country’s economic outlook for 2025. Despite modest GDP growth and inflation rates, Mexico’s poultry industry is expected to see positive growth driven by factors such as population growth, rising disposable incomes, and increased demand from the tourism and restaurant sectors. Chicken meat production is forecasted to increase by 2% in 2025, reaching 4.1 million metric tons, reflecting the growing demand for poultry products in the Mexican market.
Overall, Jim Wyckoff’s analysis provides valuable insights into the dynamic global protein market, highlighting key trends, challenges, and opportunities for industry stakeholders. As the industry continues to evolve and adapt to changing market conditions, staying informed and proactive is essential for success in the competitive livestock and poultry sectors. The poultry industry in Mexico is expected to experience strong demand driven by population growth and sustained consumption from the Hotel, Restaurant, and Institutional (HRI) sector. It is forecasted that poultry consumption will rise by three percent in 2025 to 5.1 million metric tons (MMT), with consumption per capita expected to increase by two percent. Chicken meat is projected to remain the most affordable meat in Mexico, making it a popular choice among consumers, especially as prices of other proteins such as pork and beef are less competitive.
In terms of trade, poultry imports are forecasted to increase by four percent in 2025 to 1.0 MMT. This rise in imports is attributed to the anticipated boost in domestic consumption. However, poultry exports are expected to remain limited due to trading partner sanitary standards and the robust domestic demand for chicken, which reduces the availability of product for export.
The cattle futures market has recently experienced a rebound from a long liquidation plunge driven by trade war concerns. This bounce back in prices suggests that panic selling has subsided for now, despite the April live cattle contract still holding a discount compared to last week’s average cash cattle price. However, US beef packers continue to slow cattle slaughter due to poor margins, which is expected to put cash cattle prices under pressure in the near term.
The USDA has reported on the livestock industry in Mexico, highlighting a temporary halt in Mexican cattle exports to the US due to a New World screwworm detection. This export pause is expected to lead to an increase in the availability of steers and heifers with export-quality characteristics, improving the overall quality of Mexico’s cattle herd. Calf crop production is forecasted to increase by one percent in 2025, supported by favorable conditions from the previous year. Cattle exports are expected to decrease by 17 percent, with more cattle being retained for domestic slaughter or replacements.
In Brazil, the third-largest cattle producing country in the world, the livestock industry is also experiencing changes. Post forecasts a decrease in calf crop and slaughter in 2025, signaling the start of the reversion of the cattle cycle. Brazil has stopped vaccinating against Foot-and-Mouth Disease and is seeking recognition as free from FMD without vaccination. Live cattle exports are expected to be impacted by cattle retention, with the largest destinations being Türkiye, Iraq, and Egypt.
In terms of beef production, Brazil is forecasted to see a minor increase in 2025, reaching 11.9 million metric tons. Consumption is expected to decrease slightly, while exports are forecasted to reach a record high of 3.8 million metric tons. In the swine industry, Brazil is expected to see an increase in the pig crop and pork production, driven by lower production costs and strong domestic and foreign demand.
China has recently suspended beef imports from six South American meat plants, including those in Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay, as part of a safeguard investigation into beef imports. This action is aimed at protecting China’s domestic beef industry amid oversupply and weak demand, which could significantly impact beef exports from the affected countries.
Overall, the outlook for the US protein industry includes a decrease in beef production for 2025, with tighter domestic feeder supplies expected to constrain feedlot placements. Beef exports are forecasted to decline, while imports are expected to rise. These trends suggest a complex and evolving landscape for the global protein industry, with various factors influencing production, consumption, and trade patterns. The agricultural industry is a crucial component of the economy, with various sectors contributing to the overall growth and stability of the market. The forecast for the 5-area steer price to average $291 per cwt indicates a positive outlook for the livestock sector, providing valuable insights for stakeholders and investors.
In the hogs and pork sector, commercial production is expected to reach 28.5 billion pounds in 2025, representing a 3% increase from the previous year. Pork exports are projected to reach 7.30 billion pounds, driven by strong international demand and increased domestic production. Additionally, pork imports are expected to rise to 1.17 billion pounds. The national base 51%-52% lean hog prices are forecasted to be at $65 per cwt, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous year. Despite higher availability of hogs, prices are expected to be supported by strong demand both domestically and internationally, as well as higher beef prices.
In the broilers sector, production is forecasted to reach 47.1 billion pounds, with a 1% increase driven by lower feed costs, higher prices for competing meats, and increasing average live bird weights. However, the rate of growth may be constrained by the smaller layer flock. Broiler meat exports are expected to decrease to 6.61 billion pounds, while the national wholesale broiler price is projected to be at $1.32 per pound.
The dairy sector is also expected to see growth in 2025, with milk cow numbers projected to increase compared to the previous year. With a 0.3% growth in milk per cow production, output is estimated to reach 226.9 billion pounds, representing a 0.5% increase. The decline in the incidence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle in California is a positive development for the industry.
The USDA recently unveiled a $1 billion plan to combat HPAI and stabilize egg prices. The initiative includes funding for Wildlife Biosecurity Assessments, producer indemnification, and farm repopulation efforts, as well as investments in vaccines and other solutions. The USDA will collaborate with the FDA and deploy epidemiologists to address the issue. While vaccination remains under review, trade impact considerations will guide the implementation of the plan.
Furthermore, the USDA confirmed reports of Turkey sending eggs into the U.S., highlighting the potential impact on the domestic market. The agency also urged the rollback of California’s “overly restrictive” Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act, emphasizing the need to address regulatory challenges in the industry.
In the dairy market, CME Group Cash Markets reported fluctuations in prices for butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, and dry whey. Stakeholders across regions noted varying demand for dairy products, with producers adjusting to seasonal demands and market conditions.
As the industry prepares for the spring flush season, concerns about growing milk volumes and market dynamics are being closely monitored. The dry dairy ingredients markets are experiencing price decreases due to steady to heavier supplies and cautious demand, signaling a challenging period for processors and traders.
Overall, the agricultural industry continues to evolve, with various sectors facing unique challenges and opportunities. Stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptable to navigate the changing landscape and ensure long-term sustainability and growth in the market. The latest updates from the international dairy market show that lactose prices experienced a slight decrease, while rennet and acid casein prices remained stable. On the other hand, whey protein concentrate (WPC) 34% markets continued to exhibit a bullish trend, with prices rising once again this week.
In West Europe, milk deliveries in England, Scotland, and Wales totaled 1.048 billion liters in January, marking a 2.2% increase from the same period in 2024. Ireland’s Consumer Price Index for January 2025 rose by 1.9% compared to January 2024, with the national average price of full fat milk per 2 liters increasing by 18 cents. Additionally, a prominent European dairy cooperative announced a guaranteed milk price of 53.75 euros per 100 kg of conventional milk for March.
Moving to East Europe, the European Commission Combined Drought Indicator highlighted warning and watch drought conditions in certain areas due to precipitation deficits. Temperatures in early February were above seasonal averages for the region.
In Australia, Dairy Australia reported a 2.6% decrease in milk production in January 2025 compared to the previous year, with production increasing in New South Wales but declining in other states. The Production Inputs Monitor report from Dairy Australia noted an increase in input costs in Australia during January.
New Zealand’s export data for January 2025 revealed a significant increase in the value of milk powder, butter, and cheese exports compared to January 2024. Additionally, fresh milk and cream export values were 13% higher in January 2025.
In South America, Argentina and Brazil saw overall gains in total output in 2024, while Uruguayan milk output declined. Milk producers are preparing for potential increases in food costs, and dairy commodity trading activity is relatively subdued as the end of the first quarter approaches. Brazilian brokers noted that logistical cost increases continue to pose challenges despite some recent strengthening of the Brazilian real.
Turning to the US National Retail Report, total conventional dairy ads increased by 21% in the week 9 retail ad survey, with organic ads growing by 65% compared to the previous week. Cheese was the most advertised conventional dairy commodity, with shred style cheese being the most promoted product. Yogurt and conventional ice cream also saw an increase in ads in the week 9 survey.
Overall, the international dairy market continues to see fluctuations in prices and production levels across different regions. It is essential for stakeholders in the dairy industry to stay informed about these developments to make informed decisions and navigate the market effectively.
