Despite the return of rains in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro in Brazil in October 2024, the outlook for the 2025-26 season remains uncertain. The industry body Cepea in Brazil reported that while the flowers that opened after the rains were considered satisfactory, the development of the crop still hinges on weather conditions during the season.

The 2024-25 crop is estimated at 223.14 million boxes of 40.8 kg oranges, marking a significant 27.4% drop from the previous season. Adverse weather conditions have plagued production for five consecutive seasons, leading to restricted juice stocks. Cepea estimates suggest that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the 2024-25 crop, potentially ending the season at zero. Therefore, a very positive 2025-26 season would be necessary for even a slight recovery.

Even a decrease in exports in the 2024-25 season may not offset the reduced volume of processed fruit, maintaining high demand in the industry. Additionally, Florida has been experiencing a decline in inventories and may need to import more inputs from Brazil to support domestic market prices. The USDA’s data released on December 10 indicates that Florida’s 2024-25 orange crop may total 12 million 40.8 kg boxes, representing a 20% drop compared to previous estimates. Factors such as greening and Hurricane Milton in early October 2024 have contributed to the decrease in production in Florida.

Looking ahead to 2025, the conditions in Brazilian citriculture may support prices throughout the year. It is crucial for the industry to closely monitor weather patterns and crop development to navigate the uncertainties surrounding the upcoming season.

In conclusion, the citrus industry in Brazil is facing challenges due to adverse weather conditions and reduced production levels. The need for a positive 2025-26 season to facilitate recovery is evident, with industry stakeholders closely monitoring market dynamics and potential impacts on prices. Collaboration between Brazil and Florida in addressing supply chain challenges and ensuring market stability will be key in navigating the uncertainties ahead. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay updated on the latest developments in the citrus industry and receive insights from industry experts.