In 2024, Brazilian orange prices reached record-breaking levels, with the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics of Brazil (Cepea) reporting that the value of a 40.8 kg box exceeded BRL 100 (US$16) in the fresh market. This surge in prices was driven by strong industry demand, low orange juice stocks, and a limited supply of fresh oranges due to reduced production.
The weather conditions in the Brazilian citrus belt played a significant role in the price increase, with predominantly dry conditions and high temperatures affecting crop development. While the higher prices allowed citrus growers to profit, low productivity led to increased costs, compounded by the ongoing challenge of citrus greening.
During the off-season period, Tahiti lime prices remained relatively low in the first half of 2024 but saw a significant increase in the second half due to tighter supply and rising demand. Real-term values reached record highs, fueled by constrained orange supply and strong industry demand.
By October 2024, the average price paid by the industry exceeded BRL 90 per 40.8 kg box, a significant increase from the prices at the beginning of the season. With limited industry stocks and rising spot market demand, prices soared to over BRL 100 per box by November.
Projections for the 2024/25 campaign suggest that the state of São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro will harvest approximately 223.14 million 40.8 kg boxes of oranges. While this represents an increase compared to earlier estimates, it is still lower than the initial forecast in May and significantly lower than the previous season’s harvest.
The current limited orange juice stocks in Brazil highlight the need for increased production in both Brazil and Florida to ensure a stable global supply in the upcoming seasons. The Mercosur-European Union trade agreement presents opportunities for increased shipments of lime, lemon, and orange juice, as well as opening up channels for fruit imports from Spain, promising positive prospects for the medium and long term.
In conclusion, the record-breaking Brazilian orange prices in 2024 were driven by a combination of factors including strong industry demand, low stocks, limited supply, and challenging weather conditions. The industry faces both challenges and opportunities in the coming seasons, with the need for increased production to meet global demand and the potential benefits of trade agreements for expanding market opportunities. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay updated on the latest developments in the citrus industry.
