Limited grower selling has caused wheat and barley prices to trade sideways in recent weeks, with occasional spikes in the market due to consumer demand. In the northern regions of Australia, growers are transitioning from chickpeas to sorghum as their off-the-header cash crop, while consumers are securing new-crop cottonseed ahead of the upcoming ginning season in April. Conversely, the southern regions are experiencing dry conditions typical of summer, prompting growers to hold onto cereals until the autumn break arrives for the 2025-26 crop.
In the northern markets, consumers in Queensland and northern New South Wales are purchasing small quantities of wheat and barley, but the majority of trade is focused on sorghum as harvest ramps up in hot and dry weather conditions. Subsoil moisture levels are generally favorable in the north, with consumers securing loads as far out as January 2026. Additionally, after the sorghum harvest, some growers will transition to cotton production, with cottonseed prices trading at around $420 per tonne for delivery between May 2025 and March 2026.
On the other hand, in the southern regions, wheat and barley export programs are ongoing, with pulses and canola also in demand. Export demand is supplementing domestic feedlot requirements, with growers selling warehoused grain for export and on-farm grain to local markets. Barley values are around $290 per tonne delivered Riverina, while wheat is approximately $315 per tonne, slightly higher in areas with shortages. Harvest results vary in different districts, with some areas experiencing better-than-expected outcomes, while others were impacted by frost or rain.
Overall, growers in the southern regions have sold most of their canola, pulses, and better grades of cereals between harvest and now, positioning them well financially. However, the dry conditions have led to limited grower engagement, with many growers choosing to hold onto their crops until a general break in the season, ideally in April. Despite this, consumers in Victoria and southern NSW are making progress on their current quarter requirements and are expected to face shortages if growers continue to hold onto their crops.
In conclusion, the Australian grain market is experiencing varied conditions in different regions, with limited grower selling impacting price movements. Consumers are actively securing supplies for their needs, with a focus on sorghum in the north and export programs in the south. The upcoming ginning season and cottonseed prices indicate a shift towards cotton production in some areas, while dry conditions and limited engagement from growers are influencing market dynamics. Overall, the market is poised for potential changes as the season progresses, with growers and consumers adjusting their strategies accordingly.
