In May 2025, Brazil confirmed its first-ever outbreak of avian influenza (bird flu) on a commercial poultry farm in Montenegro, Rio Grande do Sul, marking a historic and alarming shift for the world’s largest chicken exporter. While Brazil has previously battled cases of bird flu in wild birds, the leap to a commercial setting in one of its most critical poultry-producing states sends ripple effects across domestic supply chains and international trade corridors.
This article explores the implications of this outbreak—locally for Rio Grande do Sul’s economy, nationally for Brazil’s poultry reputation, and globally for importers relying on Brazilian chicken. We also examine how industry leaders and government agencies are responding and what this event could signal for the future of biosecurity in Latin America.
Why Rio Grande do Sul Matters
Rio Grande do Sul contributes over 16% of Brazil’s total poultry exports, with major producers like BRF, JBS Seara, Vibra, and Nicolini operating expansive farming and processing operations. The state’s proximity to the Port of Rio Grande—a key logistics hub—makes it a vital conduit for shipping poultry products to China, the EU, Saudi Arabia, and over 150 other countries.
A health crisis in this region has consequences far beyond its borders. Brazil shipped 5.294 million metric tons of chicken in 2024. If a sizable portion of that supply chain is disrupted, price volatility and supply shortages can cascade across global markets.
The Outbreak: What We Know
On May 16, 2025, Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture confirmed that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was detected at a commercial broiler farm in Montenegro, Rio Grande do Sul.
Prior to this, Brazil’s avian influenza cases had been limited to wild birds. The jump to a commercial flock activates international trade protocols that trigger automatic restrictions or temporary bans from importers.
🦠 Immediate Impact:
- The farm was quarantined and depopulated.
- A 10-kilometer surveillance zone was set up around the site.
- All movement of birds and eggs in the area was restricted.
- Surveillance was expanded to other poultry facilities nearby.
International Reactions
The outbreak immediately triggered alarm in global markets. Many importing countries, including South Korea, China, Japan, and members of the EU, have pre-agreed protocols to pause imports from affected zones or regions.
✈️ Market Responses:
- China, Brazil’s largest poultry buyer, initiated an audit of facilities across other states like Paraná and Santa Catarina.
- The European Union halted shipments from Rio Grande do Sul pending risk evaluation.
- Middle Eastern countries requested transparency on the spread and containment.
While Brazil has a compartmentalization system (allowing unaffected zones to keep exporting), the stigma of bird flu can delay port approvals and push importers to temporarily switch suppliers—even if just symbolically.
Domestic Consequences in Rio Grande do Sul
The poultry sector is deeply integrated into the rural economy of Rio Grande do Sul. An outbreak of this magnitude has serious short-term consequences:
🏭 Industry Impact:
- Exports were halted from some of the state’s largest facilities.
- Producers faced stock overflow, leading to price drops in domestic markets.
- Slaughterhouse throughput slowed, affecting both supply chain workers and producers with full grow-outs.
- The Port of Rio Grande, typically handling over 335,000 metric tons of poultry annually, saw a significant slowdown in container movement.
👨🌾 Impact on Producers:
- Integrated farmers, who rely on contracts with companies like JBS and Vibra, experienced delivery delays and revenue shortfalls.
- Smaller producers with limited biosecurity faced pressure to meet new standards rapidly or risk being excluded from the supply chain.
Longer-Term Implications
This is a watershed moment for Brazilian poultry. The illusion that Brazil was “untouchable” by bird flu has been broken. Even with the outbreak under control, the psychological and policy shifts will be long-lasting.
🔮 Key Changes Likely:
- Enhanced Biosecurity Protocols: Companies are now forced to invest in stronger barriers, staff training, and disease detection tech.
- Accelerated Certification Systems: Brazil will likely push harder for international recognition of its compartmentalization model, akin to the U.S. and EU.
- Market Diversification: To hedge against bans, exporters may target less risk-averse markets in Africa and Latin America.
- More Domestic Processing: Expect a surge in further-processed, cooked, or shelf-stable poultry products that bypass certain import restrictions tied to fresh raw meat.
Government & Industry Response
The Ministry of Agriculture has been praised for quickly identifying and isolating the outbreak. The Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA) issued a statement reinforcing confidence in Brazil’s poultry system and emphasized that exports from non-affected states continue as normal.
BRF, JBS, and Vibra are also issuing updates to their international clients, reassuring them of compartmentalized production and unaffected operations in other regions.
What It Means for Global Markets
In the short term, poultry prices may increase globally, especially in countries that rely heavily on Brazil for low-cost protein. Countries like China and Saudi Arabia may temporarily shift to Thai or U.S. suppliers, but logistical constraints make Brazil difficult to replace fully.
In the medium term, the outbreak could accelerate Brazil’s dominance in the value-added poultry category. Many importers prefer suppliers that can bounce back from health challenges with professionalism and transparency. If Brazil manages this well, it could come out even stronger.
FAQs
❓ Is it safe to eat Brazilian chicken?
Yes. The outbreak is limited to live bird production. No poultry products exported from Brazil have tested positive, and proper cooking kills the virus.
❓ Will this cause chicken prices to rise globally?
Possibly. Short-term disruptions in Brazil can raise international prices, especially in Asia and the Middle East, which rely heavily on Brazilian imports.
❓ Can Brazil still export from other states?
Yes. Brazil has a “compartmentalized” system that allows certified clean zones like Paraná and Santa Catarina to continue exports.
❓ What does this mean for small farmers in Rio Grande do Sul?
Small farmers may face higher biosecurity costs or be temporarily excluded from export chains until they comply with new health standards.
❓ Has this ever happened in Brazil before?
This is the first time bird flu has affected a commercial poultry farm in Brazil. All previous cases were found in wild birds.
