Freight Shipping Costs 2026

rgultig

June 29, 2026

Freight Shipping Costs 2026: Why Rates Are Surging Again and What It Means for F&B

If you manage a supply chain, run procurement for a food manufacturer, or import ingredients from Asia or Europe, the last few weeks will have been an uncomfortable déjà vu. Freight shipping costs in 2026 are spiking sharply — and the trigger looks familiar: a US tariff deadline, a scramble to frontload inventory, and a market that had been sitting on compressed rates suddenly finding itself overwhelmed with demand.

This is not a repeat of the pandemic. But the mechanics are disturbingly similar. Here is what is happening, why, and what it means for the food and beverage supply chain.

The Rate Picture: How Bad Is It?

The numbers are stark. According to the Financial Times, the price of a 40ft container from China to the US east coast reached $7,880 last week — up 62% from a month earlier. Rates between China and the Mediterranean jumped 47% to $6,431 in the same period. The Platts Container Index climbed 80% in the 30 days to late June, reaching its highest level since April 2022.

Transpacific rates have climbed 19% to the US west coast to more than $5,700 per FEU, with daily prices past the $6,000 mark, while east coast rates have increased 13% to $7,400 per FEU with daily rates now past $8,000. Freightos

These spikes represent the sharpest one-week increases since sudden tariff changes spurred a demand surge in mid-2025, though rates climbed even more sharply on that occasion. Freightos

To put the current levels in context: during the 2024 Red Sea crisis, when Houthi missile strikes forced vessels to divert around the Cape of Good Hope and added up to two weeks to journey times, rates peaked at around $9,800 per FEU. The market is not there yet. But the direction of travel is upward — and multiple drivers are converging simultaneously.

What Is Driving the Surge

The immediate trigger is a US tariff deadline. The Trump administration has announced plans to impose tariffs of at least 10% on dozens of countries from late July, following an investigation by the Office of the US Trade Representative into forced labour practices. China, the EU, India, Japan, and the UK are among the major economies targeted.

A global 10% tariff — currently in place as a baseline — expires on July 24. The administration has signalled it intends to replace it with new country-specific levies of between 10% and 12.5%. Separate Section 301 tariff investigations could result in additional levies on Brazil and 16 other trading partners.

The response from importers has been textbook frontloading. Inbound imports to the US are running approximately 8–10% above the prior month as shippers continue to pull freight forward ahead of another tariff increase expected at the end of July. Transportationinsight

But the tariff deadline is not the only factor. The early start to peak season has been driven by multiple factors: frontloading ahead of Bunker Adjustment Factor increases, approaching tariff expirations and new Section 301 introductions for transpacific shippers, and anticipated manufacturer price hikes in July. Freightos

Many contracted shippers face an 80% jump in fuel surcharges starting in July when the quarterly BAF is updated, and may be pulling forward peak season shipments to get ahead of that cost increase as well. Indications that manufacturers in the Far East are set to raise prices due to higher input costs may also be driving some of the observed early demand. Freightos

Then there is the Middle East dimension. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following the Iran conflict that began earlier this year, has kept upward pressure on bunker fuel costs. Approaching 100 days since the start of the Iran war, despite periodic reports that an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz is near, the sides continue to exchange fire and the waterway remains closed, creating upward pressure on freight rates via elevated fuel costs. Freightos

Peak Season Is Arriving Early — and Compressed

One of the most significant near-term implications for supply chain planning is that peak season shipping demand has been pulled forward by several weeks. The National Retail Federation’s latest US ocean import volume report confirms the peak season pull-forward and moves this year’s peak month up to June from its estimate of a July high a month ago. Projections indicate June volumes will climb 5% compared to May arrivals before imports ease 3% in July and continue to cool through September — suggesting the early start is driven by frontloading that will come at the expense of volume strength later in the summer. Freightos

The practical implication: the surge is real but likely to be self-limiting. Companies that front-loaded in May and June will not need to re-order in July and August. That means the rate spike may ease before the traditional late-summer holiday peak — but the short-term pain is real and the booking window is tight.

Tuesday, June 30 is shaping up to be one of the most challenging single shipping days in recent memory — falling at end of month, end of quarter, and in the final week before the July 4 holiday weekend that will take most of the freight industry offline. Transportationinsight

The “Double Squeeze” Warning

While the immediate rate picture is dominated by frontloading and tariff-related demand, there is a more structural concern building beneath the surface.

According to Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, the freight sector faces what some maritime experts are calling a “double squeeze” — tariffs still high but consumer demand softening and unable to absorb the costs. Murphy describes the situation as an economic “mirage” in relation to actual cargo volumes, which he expects will be down in 2026 overall, noting: “This is the payback period of suppressed volumes following 2025’s frontloading, combined with the reality that trade policy shifts where the higher US tariff cost base is approximately 18.5%.” CNBC

In other words: the current rate spike is a symptom of companies pulling demand forward, not evidence of underlying volume strength. Once the frontloading cycle exhausts itself, the structural oversupply of vessels — and weaker underlying import demand — could push rates back down sharply.

With no surge of freight on the longer horizon and more ocean carriers starting to return to the Red Sea after years of Houthi rebel attacks made the waterway too risky to transit, fewer vessels will be needed, and overcapacity was cited as one of the reasons behind Maersk’s recent announcement of 1,000 job cuts. CNBC

What This Means for Food and Beverage Supply Chains

The freight shipping costs 2026 surge has direct and specific implications for food and beverage companies importing ingredients, packaging materials, and finished goods from Asia or shipping into the US market from Europe.

Ingredient and input cost exposure is real. For F&B manufacturers relying on Asian-sourced ingredients — spices, botanicals, functional additives, packaging components, seafood — the 40–60% spike in container rates from China is a direct input cost pressure. Companies without long-term freight contracts are most exposed right now.

The tariff layer compounds the rate issue. Higher freight costs and higher tariff duties are arriving together. For importers who had modelled only one variable, the combined impact on landed cost can be significant. Any cost-benefit analysis that treated tariff exposure and freight rate risk as separate line items needs to be revisited.

Warehouse and drayage capacity near major ports is tightening. Warehouse space near major East and Gulf Coast gateways — Savannah, Houston, Charleston, Mobile, Jacksonville, and Norfolk — will become increasingly competitive as import volumes surge ahead of peak season, and shippers who do not have storage secured in advance may find themselves competing for limited space at elevated rates or holding containers at port and absorbing demurrage costs. Averitt

The rate spike is probably temporary — but the tariff cost base is not. Freight rates tend to normalise after frontloading cycles exhaust themselves. The tariff structure being locked in through late July, however, is a structural change to the cost of importing into the US that does not disappear when the rate spike fades.

European exporters face a compounded headache. F&B companies shipping into the US from Europe face both the new tariff levies and the competitive disadvantage relative to US and Latin American domestic supply. European exporters to China — including major pork, dairy, and wine producers — simultaneously face the Chinese antidumping environment. The combination of pressures on European supply chains is unlikely to ease quickly.

What Procurement and Logistics Teams Should Do Now

The window for action is narrow but not closed. For shippers, the most important near-term move is to pull freight forward before the end of June where possible, and review carrier coverage, pricing, and import timing ahead of the late July tariff increase. Transportationinsight

More broadly, the playbook for navigating the current environment involves several elements that are not new but are newly urgent. Securing contracted capacity before spot rates escalate further is critical for any company still operating largely on spot rates. With tariff uncertainty continuing, the world of trade and the supply chain will be navigating a difficult period — meaning the companies best positioned will be those that have locked in terms rather than those relying on the spot market in July. CNBC

Diversification of sourcing geography — reducing reliance on single-origin lanes most exposed to the tariff structure — is a longer-term response but one that the current environment makes more urgent to begin planning.

For companies shipping to the US from Asia, the choice between absorbing higher Q3 costs and accepting a compressed margin versus front-loading further inventory now involves a real trade-off between carrying cost, warehousing availability, and tariff exposure. That calculation will be different for every business depending on product shelf life, storage capacity, and demand certainty.

The Bigger Picture

The freight shipping costs 2026 surge is ultimately a symptom of a deeper realignment in global trade policy. The US tariff architecture is being reset — not just for China, but for a far wider range of trading partners. The market is responding to each new announcement with the same short-term behaviour it always has: pull inventory forward, absorb the higher short-term rate, and worry about the structural consequences later.

But the structural consequences are accumulating. As Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, noted after the USTR’s latest announcement targeting 60 countries: the tariff wall around the US continues to rise, and while this may appear as old news, the net effect will be to speed up global supply chain shifts. IndexBox

For food and beverage supply chains that have spent the last decade optimising around low freight costs and predictable trade access, the current environment is a reminder that neither can be taken for granted. The companies that emerge in the strongest position will be those that treat the current spike not just as a short-term logistics problem to manage around, but as a signal to rethink the architecture of their supply chains over the medium term.

Related

Container Shipping Rates Update: Carriers Stack New Surcharges on Africa and North America Trades for July 2026
Global Food And Beverage Logistics Industry Report 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are freight shipping costs rising in 2026?

The primary driver is frontloading by importers racing to bring goods into the US before new tariffs take effect around July 24. This has been compounded by a simultaneous jump in fuel surcharges (with a quarterly Bunker Adjustment Factor update due in July), anticipated manufacturer price increases in Asia, and ongoing Middle East tensions keeping energy costs elevated.

How high are container shipping rates right now?

According to Freightos Baltic Index data, Asia-US east coast rates recently reached $7,400–$8,000+ per FEU, while Asia-US west coast rates have passed $5,700–$6,000 per FEU. Asia-Mediterranean rates have also surged significantly. These represent the highest levels since the Red Sea crisis in 2024.

How long will the freight rate spike last?

Most analysts expect the current spike to be self-limiting. Frontloading demand is compressing Q3 peak season volumes into May and June. Once the July tariff deadline passes and front-loaded inventory is absorbed, demand — and rates — are likely to ease through August and September. However, the structural tariff cost increase is not temporary.

What should food and beverage companies do right now?

Prioritise securing contracted freight capacity before spot rates climb further. Assess landed cost models to account for both higher tariffs and higher freight simultaneously. Review warehousing availability near key port gateways ahead of the July surge. For longer-term planning, begin mapping sourcing diversification options that reduce dependency on trade lanes most exposed to US tariff escalation.

Is the Middle East situation making freight shipping costs worse?

Yes. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran conflict began has kept bunker fuel prices elevated, and that cost is being passed through to shippers via surcharges. The Bunker Adjustment Factor is due to reset in July, which is one reason contracted shippers are accelerating shipments to get ahead of an estimated 80% fuel surcharge increase.

Sources

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Author: rgultig in conjunction with ESS Research Team

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