WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its Sept. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) estimated the 2023-24 US sugar ending stocks-to-use ratio at 18%, the highest since 2004, on higher production from early 2024 crop harvest and higher imports (mainly high-tier). The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2024-25 was projected at 14.2%, down from 15.9% in August as lower domestic production and imports from Mexico more than offset higher beginning stocks.
The data for both years indicates ample sugar supplies, which have been reflected in cash sugar price weakness mainly for 2025. Spot Midwest beet sugar prices at around 55¢ a lb are down about 10% from a year ago, while 2025 prices as low as 45¢ a lb are down even more sharply.
For the current marketing year, the USDA estimated beet sugar production at 9,265,000 short tons, raw value, up 94,000 tons from August based on a 41,049-ton increase in beet sugar, at 5,159,000 tons, “mostly on higher-than-expected production occurring in August and September from the early season 2024 sugar beet crop,” and a 53,024-ton increase in cane sugar, at 4,106,000 tons, “on higher expected production in September from the early season 2024 sugar cane crop (in Louisiana).”
Imports in 2023-24 were forecast at 3,834,000 tons, up 145,000 tons, or 3.9%, from August based on an 82,400-ton increase in high-tier imports, at a record 1,170,000 tons, a 25,060-ton increase in tariff-rate quota imports, based on early-entry of fourth-quarter free trade agreement imports, a 32,000-ton increase in re-export imports, putting “other program” imports at 320,000 tons, and a 5,000-ton increase in imports from Mexico, at 520,000 tons. High-tier imports of raw sugar were estimated at 824,380 tons and of refined sugar at 289,574 tons, with the remainder accounted for by molasses imports.
Total sugar supply in 2023-24 was estimated at 14,941,000 tons, up 239,152 tons from August and up 256,000 tons from 2022-23.
Minimal changes were made in 2023-24 sugar use, with exports forecast at 225,000 tons, down 16,000 tons from August, and “other” at 138,000 tons, up 20,000 tons based on increased re-export product deliveries.
Ending stocks were forecast at 2,278,000 tons, up 235,000 tons, or 11.5%, from August and up 435,000 tons from 1,843,000 tons in 2022-23, when the ending stocks-to-use ratio was 14.3%.
The USDA forecast 2024-25 US sugar production at 9,474,000 tons, down 40,000 tons from August, with beet sugar at 5,311,000 tons, down 52,000 tons, “due to a lower NASS forecast of national sugar beet area,” and cane sugar at 4,163,000 tons, up 12,000 tons “on higher expected sugar cane yield forecast by NASS (for Louisiana),” partially offset by processors’ expectations of modestly lower yields in Florida. If realized, beet, cane and total sugar production in 2024-25 would be record high.
Imports for 2024-25 were adjusted significantly, mainly due to a sharply lower projection for Mexico based on the required adjustment to Mexico’s export limit spelled out in the US-Mexico suspension agreements. Imports from Mexico were projected at 395,000 tons, down 395,000 tons, or 50%, from August and the minimum allowed under the suspension agreements. High-tier imports were raised 18,000 tons, to 317,000 tons. TRQ imports were forecast at 1,618,000 tons, down 25,060 tons to account for the early-arrival of FTA imports rolled into 2023-24 as noted above. Total imports were forecast at 1,618,000 tons, down 403,000 tons, or 14%, from August.
In explaining the adjustment of imports from Mexico in 2024-25, the USDA said, “The US Department of Commerce uses the September WASDE to set the Mexico export limit for the period beginning Oct. 1. The export limit will be the higher of exports needed to result in a US ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5% multiplied by 0.7, or the export limit from the July WASDE. Because the target quantity of US needs from this WASDE calculated at 262,035 tons is lower than the export limit of 394,963 tons established by the DOC on July 15, the latter amount is used for projecting exports to the United States in the WASDE.” Because the higher value had to be used, the USDA was able to lower the 2024-25 ending stock-to-use ratio to only 14.2% rather than the target 13.5%.
Total sugar supply in 2024-25 was projected at 14,282,000 tons, down 208,000 tons from August as lower imports and production more than offset higher beginning stocks.
There were no changes from August made to 2024-25 sugar use projections, with deliveries for food at 12,300,000 tons, exports at 100,000 tons, and “other” at 105,000 tons, with total use at 12,505,000 tons.
Ending stocks in 2024-25 were projected at 1,777,000 tons, down 208,000 tons, or 10.5%, from August and down 501,000 tons, or 22%, from 2023-24.
Mostly minor changes from August were made for both 2023-24 and 2024-25 projections for Mexico. For the current year, production was unchanged at 4,704,000 tonnes, actual weight, imports for consumption were raised 19,000 tonnes, to 816,000 tonnes, exports were raised 4,000 tonnes, to 445,000 tonnes, and domestic use was lowered 8,000 tonnes, to 4,532,000 tonnes. Ending stocks were estimated at 1,377,000 tonnes, up 22,344 tonnes from August, with an ending stocks-to-total use ratio of 27.7%.
For 2024-25, higher beginning stocks were offset by higher exports, leaving the projected ending stocks unchanged at 977,000 tonnes, with an ending stocks-to-total use ratio at 17.7%. Production in 2024-25 was forecast at 5,094,000 tonnes, unchanged from August but up 390,000 tonnes, or 8%, from 2023-24.
