Bakeries making bread and switching between different types of loaves will need to switch settings down the line or make other adjustments, depending on the different types of bread they are baking.
Even those with long production runs of the same product are monitoring the doughs and making adjustments if things change. Smart dough and recipe management can add value to increase overall equipment effectiveness (OEE), said Johan Laros, managing director, Royal Kaak North America Inc.
“OEE improvement can be obtained by harmonizing proof and bake times, temperatures and relative humidity settings as much as possible,” he said. “Kaak advises dough technologists to apply variations in the dough recipe to compensate for variations in proof and bake times, temperatures and relative humidity.”
Moving from a standard white or wheat loaf to a denser bread with a lot of inclusions requires adjustments at the mixing, proofing and baking stages, said Dan Alper, product marketing manager, AMF Bakery Systems.
“Adjustments to mixing time, speed and hydration levels, along with ensuring even distribution of inclusions, are crucial for achieving proper gluten development, consistency and preventing overworking or stickiness in denser doughs,” he said. “The baking stage involves adjusting baking temperatures, steam levels and durations to ensure denser and textured breads are thoroughly baked, achieving the desired internal crumb structure and preventing a burnt crust.”
In this same scenario, Jim Fontaine, bakery field sales manager, Reiser, mentioned the importance of adjustments needed at the mixer and divider.
“As far as mixing, you may need to adjust low- and high-speed times and add inclusions within the last minute or two of mix,” he said. “Product should flow from fastest to longest in terms of proof and bake. At the divider, it varies by the machine. With our Vemag dough dividers, it is generally just a change of recipe and possibly a double screw depending on the finished desired grain.”
In the case of rye bread that involves a highly hydrated dough, the dough is dosed into pans rather than being placed like a regular bread dough, said Franck Ellenbogen, sales director, North America, Mecatherm. Radiant and convection oven heat help with a variety of loaves, including this type of bread.
“The use of convection on the bottom of the tins allows it to be heated more quickly and to increase the volume of the product,” he said. “The convection technology provides a homogeneous heat distribution around the products and the heating of the tins, in order to obtain an even crust color and thickness on all sides of the product and to avoid caving.”
Mike Scouten, vice president, sales and customer service, Stewart Systems and Baker Thermal Solutions, both part of Middleby Bakery, said the bakeries he’s worked with adjust their baking times but generally keep the proof times the same for all products. That’s because the proofing times on bread are generally longer than bake times, so it’s easier to adjust at the oven as needed when making a switch.
“They vary their ingredients to have a consistent proof time. What varies is the bake time,” he explained. “If you change varieties, if your proof time is the same, it doesn’t matter if you have a gap in your proofer.”
Nicola Menardo, president, TP Food Group, North America, pointed out that proper production planning is vital when making a shift from one type of bread to another.
“For instance, while proofers have short reaction times when it comes to adjusting processing temperature, things are not necessarily the same with ovens, where reducing the temperature of baking chambers is not immediate,” he said.
Bakers are responding to consumer demands for breads that are artisan quality in a variety of ways, including using tools available to them to set their breads apart from others and producing breads with special toppings.
“Bakers can differentiate their products through the moulding or makeup process by employing creative techniques such as using multiple dough pieces in one pan to create unique shapes and textures, incorporating decorative scoring patterns, adding toppings or fillings during the shaping stage, and experimenting with different dough compositions and lamination methods to produce distinct layers and flavor profiles,” Alper said. “These techniques not only enhance the visual appeal and variety of their offerings but also provide opportunities to create signature products that stand out in the market.”
Some bakers are splitting their breads or topping or enrobing them with seeds, oats or a dusting of flour to create an artisan feel, Scouten said.
“Everything is happening between the proofer and oven,” he pointed out. “They’re spraying a glaze on it, they’re splitting, they’re doing different toppings. That’s how they’re really differentiating their product and making it look different from other products. They’re making it artisan looking without it really being artisan.”
A four-piecing or six-piecing system on the moulder as well as turning the cut dough pieces 90 degrees before panning provides an adapted cell structure in the final bread, Laros said.
Ken Johnson, president, Gemini Bakery Equipment, noted Gemini’s Deco Seeder can enrobe breads in seeds, oat flakes or other toppings to create an artisan loaf.
“Gemini also offers a ‘Twister’ attachment that cuts a moulded loaf into three or four pieces, turns the pieces and deposits them into a bread pan perpendicular to the pan,” he said. “This produces a finer crumb texture.”
Scouten said he has seen bakers reducing moulding on some lines.
“In certain cases with tin bread, people have gone to a simpler moulding process for a lot of products,” he said. “They are skipping the sheeting and rolling step, and now they’re just dropping the rounded bread dough ball under a pressure board. With the ingredients they’re using, it doesn’t make any difference. The product quality is nearly the same.”
This article is an excerpt from the July 2024 issue of Baking & Snack. To read the entire feature on Pan Bread Processing, click here.
Pro Tip: Take this systematic approach to make sure mechanical issues and other pesky problems don’t keep rearing their ugly heads over and over again.
Improvements across a bakery do not just happen. You cannot simply hope for things to get better. You cannot just throw money at a problem to change its course. You must understand the situation, create a plan, execute the plan and then follow up.
When you do this once, you get a result; when you do it twice, you start building habits. When you practice this method three or more times you get into a groove and improvements not only start to flow, but they also start to stick.
Too many times we solve a problem in the moment only to have it resurface later. These temporary improvements do not usually stick because there was not enough thought put into the real issue. It is like putting a Band-Aid on a wound that really needs stitches.
This process helps solve the problem for the moment, but the underlying condition is not getting the right attention. To combat the urge to solve problems quickly, a systematic approach needs to be applied so that the fix sticks and the improvement delivers long-lasting benefits.
Understanding the situation might take a little more time than what you are given or want to spend, but this makes a dramatic difference in the following steps. I call it “staring at a problem.” This does not mean that you waste time. This means that you put in meaningful effort and document all that you see so that it feeds a plan with the right data points.
Planning is critical and required as it allows you to deploy work with surgical precision. The plan must take in all the data gathered in the observations, then thoughtfully lay out what needs to be done. This plan should identify resources, including labor, materials and time.
This plan should have a step one – step two organizational strategy to it. The plan should gather all the materials needed prior to heading out for execution. This plan should state the desired result. This plan MUST have an owner and accountability.
With a solid plan, the execution phase should go off without a hitch. The right people will be available, all the materials will be handy and the appropriate time will be provided.
When all of this happens, there will be zero pressure, minimal risk and the work will deliver the desired result. Many times, when a plan is formed with the right intentions, multiple people can be executing different steps in the work and will not need to discuss anything. If you have a work process that requires a lot of discussion, you did not have a good plan.
The plan and the execution phase should always have a testing phase. If you do the work and then walk away without testing, you have not completed the mission.
Once evaluated and handed back to the operator, you must follow up in an hour, in a day, in a week and regularly after that. This is where you confirm that the fix is sticking, and the problem has been eliminated.
When you follow up, you might find a change is needed, something that is not 100% the way you intended. When you see it, you can attack it before it gets too far away from expectations. Nothing is ever perfect, but when you follow up, you can maintain the resolution.
This method can be used for many problem areas. Mostly it applies to mechanical issues, but the same philosophy can apply to product, people, innovation and customer interactions.
Just remember to practice a regimen in all problem-solving to create long lasting improvements. Get in a groove and stay in the groove.
Jeff Dearduff is owner of JED Manufacturing Services who provides “Bakery Guy Tips” to those everyday people working in production, maintenance and engineering. Connect with him on LinkedIn.
ROTTERDAM, THE NETHERLANDS — Louis Dreyfus Co. is creating a new business unit dedicated to global pulses commercialization. Saurabh Bhartia, who joins LCD as head of trading for pulses, will lead the new global unit.
“Pulses have gained prominence as a primary source of plant-based proteins and are also an ally for sustainable agriculture, as crops with properties that improve soil health and reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions,” said Michael Gelchie, chief executive officer of Rotterdam-based LDC. “The decision to establish this new business unit is therefore fully aligned with our strategy to meet evolving nutritional and sustainability expectations from customers, reflected in both global production and demand growth. Pulses also present geographic and operational synergies with LDC’s existing business activities and, as such, have the potential to contribute significantly to earnings, leveraging our already strong research, trading and risk management capabilities.”
The Pulses business unit initially will focus on yellow peas, chickpeas, red lentils, fava beans and pigeon peas to capitalize on LDC’s established domestic trading presence in key origination and destination markets, including the key producing regions of Australia and Canada and a trading presence in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, said Rubens Marques, head of South and Southeast Asia.
BENTONVILLE, ARK. — Large food manufacturers can expect more pressure from Walmart to bring down pricing as the world’s biggest retailer pursues further price rollbacks.
Price inflation in center-store food categories has lingered despite relaxed inflation in food overall, particularly in fresh foods, said Doug McMillon, president and chief executive officer of Walmart, in a conference call last week on the company’s second-quarter results. As a result, Walmart aims to push food manufacturers to ease pricing and to counteract potential increases, he noted.
“In dry grocery, processed food consumables are where inflation has been more stubborn,” McMillon said. “As we mentioned, we still have slight inflation even in the last quarter in the food categories. So I’m hoping that what we see from our branded suppliers is investment in price, and we’re seeing that from some of them and not others. We have less upward pressure, but there are some (suppliers) that are still talking about cost increases. And we’re fighting back on that aggressively, because we think prices need to come down.”
Walmart US now has more than 7,200 price rollbacks in effect across categories. Though Walmart’s private labels have gained as consumers become more price-sensitive, McMillon said the retailer would like to see name brands sharpen their value offer to shoppers.
“We want to sell brands,” he said. “It’s important to Walmart to sell brands and show a value. So we’re hoping that our branded suppliers do the right things with both quality and price to get to the value that our customers want to see. I would guess that private brand continues to grow, although it’d be OK with us if the percent of total leveled out for the reason that I just mentioned. Our teams are doing a better job with private brand as it relates to both the development of the product, the quality of it and the value. So that’s good and helpful for customers, and we’ll keep doing that.”
At Walmart US, second-quarter net sales rose 4.1% year over year, with comparable sales excluding fuel up a better-than-expected 4.2%. Customer transactions gained 3.6%, up from 2.9% a year ago, and average ticket size edged up just 0.6%, compared with 3.4% a year earlier.
Walmart’s strong quarterly results, however, present a “good news/bad news” scenario for “Big Food” companies, said TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow.
“While it’s usually a good thing when a big customer is performing well, Walmart continues to pressure food vendors to improve their value proposition through price rollbacks,” Moskow said in an Aug. 15 research note. “This may pose a challenge to a company like Hershey, which recently announced a price increase to help offset higher input costs.”
As a group, the “Big 9” food companies — Campbell Soup, Conagra Brands, General Mills, Hershey, Kellanova, Kraft Heinz, McCormick, Mondelez and J.M. Smucker — have seen retail tracking volume decline 1.6% this year through July 27, based on NielsenIQ data, compared with a 0.7% uptick for the total food market and a 2.8% gain for private label, TD Cowen said.
“(Walmart) management said that food inflation has decelerated to 0.6%, but they continue to call on branded suppliers in dry grocery to invest more in price,” Moskow said. “In addition, they said that there are still some vendors ‘talking about’ cost increases (we suspect Hershey) and that they are fighting back aggressively.”
The second-quarter performance led Walmart to raise its fiscal 2025 guidance for net sales, adjusted earnings per share and operating income.
“So far, we aren’t experiencing a weaker consumer overall,” McMillon said in the earnings call.
But that doesn’t necessarily bode good news for packaged food vendors, Moskow said.
“In theory, Walmart’s strong overall trends should flow through to Big Food,” he said. “However, we expect pressure from Walmart for deeper price rollbacks to continue, especially in categories where Walmart can flex its private label merchandising (up 60 bps of share). Companies with muted cost baskets, strong productivity savings or limited private label exposure may have a competitive advantage in this backdrop.”
Walmart is “advocating for our customers,” John David Rainey, chief financial officer, said during the call. “We want to drive everyday low prices, and we’re not intending to achieve any of our margin performance by passing this along to our customers and (Sam’s Club) members in the form of higher prices.”
CHICAGO — “Healthspan” isn’t a new idea, but it’s being approached in new ways as consumers become more engaged in extending their lifespans and being as healthy and active as possible for as long as possible.
“I would define it as the idea that people are trying to live better longer,” said Scott Dicker, senior director of market insights for Chicago-based SPINS, a provider of wellness-focused data and insights for the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry. “It’s different from longevity. Everyone is trying to die young, just as late as possible.”
This trend impacts the CPG industry through the foods, beverages and supplements consumers purchase, he added. Examples include more protein-dense foods, products with added functional ingredients such as mushrooms and ashwagandha and beverages advertised for their stress-management attributes.
Consumers are interested in cellular health and products that preserve muscle mass, maintain healthy bones and help them stay active, according to SPINS. Brain health is another area of focus, so products targeted at staying mentally sharp also are drawing attention.
“Surprisingly, younger people are into this as well,” Dicker said, adding that hormonal health, women’s health and products aimed at perimenopause, menopause and testosterone levels are being purchased more often.
Current trends reach beyond those products, however, and Dicker said non-alcohol beverage brands and so-called “relaxation beverages” or “euphorics” are other options consumers are looking at to bolster well-being and potentially enhance their healthspan.
Specialized diets, whether they take the form of intermittent fasting, plant-based or keto, are additional influences at work, he said. There is also the “Ozempic effect” in which consumers taking weight-loss drugs are impacting CPG companies’ bottom lines.
“Last fall, Walmart said they were seeing consumers were buying less calories,” Dicker said. “It’s going to have a big impact on business, and it’s being studied for longevity as well. You could make the link that if you treat your diabetes and lose weight, it could increase your healthspan.”
Some brands are developing entire product lines to align with the trend, he said. Nestle, for example, introduced its frozen Vital Pursuit line this past spring to respond to consumers taking GLP-1 drugs for type 2 diabetes and obesity.
Nestle’s Vital Pursuit frozen brand is designed to appeal to consumers using GLP-1 weight loss medication and those focused on weight management. Source: Nestle
The message for CPG companies is to take notice of the shift in consumer thinking and buying habits and understand the factors supporting it, Dicker said.
“It doesn’t mean there’s no spot for indulgent products,” he said. “Not everything is going to be a mushroom-based ashwagandha product. Just understand more consumers are going to be top of mind about these products, and that this idea of healthspan is occupying more of consumers’ minds (as they are) purchasing products going forward.”
Besides food and beverages, technology is another focal point for the increasing number of healthspan-focused consumers, Dicker said. More people are using wearable technology to track sleep patterns and heart rate, and they can make changes in their food and beverage consumption and other habits in real time and see the impact of the changes.
“This is not just a doctor saying to avoid sugar before bed and see if it works,” he said. “Now you can actually track it and measure it with real data.”
SPINS is working on a healthspan report and plans to publish it at the end of September or sometime in October, Dicker said. The report will be available for download on the company’s website.
Listen to the episode here or wherever you listen to podcasts:
Clyde’s Donuts, Addison, Ill., was ready to invest in more automation but found itself constrained by its original facility. That’s why the bakery recently opened its second plant in the Chicago metro area.
“We had visited [the International Baking Industry Exposition] and talked to a lot of supplier/vendors over the years and you always see these wonderful automated concepts, and then you come back to a facility where you have space constraints or it’s not the right fit,” said Josh Bickford, president of Clyde’s Donuts. “But we were able to design [the new plant] with this automation in mind or leave enough space for automation in the future.”
In this episode of Since Sliced Bread, Bickford shares how Clyde’s is delivering better donuts thanks to its new facility and its investments in automation.
“We’re able to control our costs better by being more efficient, more accurate and having more consistent product, which provides our customers a much more stable pipeline of delicious donuts,” Bickford said.
Listen to this episode of Since Sliced Bread to learn how Clyde’s Donuts makes the most out of its automation and the lessons other bakeries can take from them.
Since Sliced Bread is available to download on a range of applications, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. It can also be accessed on Bakingbusiness.com.
By now it’s no secret that grocery shoppers are increasingly making food purchase decisions based upon an item’s perceived health benefits. In fact, 55 percent of U.S. consumers are seeking information on the value of foods and almost half are comparing labels to select the most nutritious options. [1]
Chief among the most sought-after nutrients is fiber. Decades of research has shown that fiber leads to numerous positive outcomes including decreased chronic disease, increased longevity and improved gut health. [2] Yet the story remains the same: most people aren’t getting nearly enough. Americans get about 15 grams daily, compared to the 25-35 grams of fiber needed for children and adults. [3]
Bakery and snacks have long been strong categories for fiber-enhanced products. In the baking category in particular, there has been recent movement away from traditional fiber-rich ingredients and toward isolated fibers, such as inulin. [4]
Recognized for its prebiotic benefits, inulin is well-established in the market and is among the fastest-growing prebiotic fiber ingredients. [5] And for good reason. As a functional nutritional ingredient, inulin acts as a growth factor for gut microbiota, improves digestion, improves mineral solubility and absorption, and decreases glucose uptake. [6]
Inulin is derived from agave, chicory root, beets, among other plant-based sources. It is a non-digestible, longer-chain carbohydrate that offers developers various functional properties, including fiber, sugar reduction, fat replacement (up to 50 percent), sweetener texturizer and humectant. Notably, inulin’s sweetness has anywhere from 30-50 percent of the sweetness of table sugar. This means inulin can be increased for higher fiber content without negatively impacting flavor. [7]
“As the market for inulin continues to grow, bakery and snack brands have a unique opportunity to educate consumers about how this bioactive, powerhouse ingredient can help them meet their daily fiber intake and other health goals,” said Tonya Lofgren, product manager for CIRANDA, the premiere North American provider of certified organic, non‐GMO and fair‐trade food ingredients.
To meet growing demand for inulin, CIRANDA offers Organic Agave Inulin, which is non-GMO and kosher.
CIRANDA’S Organic Agave Inulin comes from the Agave tequilana var. weberplant — a plant that naturally contains a high concentration of inulin fructans. It is extracted from the agave pina with water, filtered to purify, and spray-dried. It is an odorless, clean tasting, mildly sweet white powder that is highly soluble in liquid. It can be used in bakery applications such as cereal and granola bars, energy balls, cookies, and baking mixes.
“Our expert technicians work with brands to effectively formulate products with inulin to meet a brand’s quality, nutrition, taste and clean-label goals,” said Lofgren. “Our agave inulin delivers on taste and texture, while also satisfying the health-conscious consumer’s desire for more fiber and reduced-sugar options.”
Agave inulin has natural water-absorption properties. It is an excellent alternative to other commercial inulin sources, such as chicory. Compared to inulin from chicory, agave inulin has more branched chains versus straight chains. These branched chains make it very soluble in cold water and enhance its functional characteristics. It acts as a fat mimetic to improve the texture and mouthfeel in reduced sugar or reduced fat applications.
“CIRANDA has decades of experience in organic agriculture, sustainable food systems and technical applications,” said Lofgren. “We look forward to helping more product developers in the bakery and snack category offer their customers the functional health benefits of inulin.”
For more information about CIRANDA’s ingredient options, please visit www.ciranda.com.
[1] “Ingredient Insider: Now & Next for Fiber & Prebiotic – US,” Innova Market Insights, March 2024
[2] Alice Callahan, ” You Probably Aren’t Getting Enough Fiber,” New York Times, Aug. 14, 2023 (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/14/well/eat/fiber-diet.html?searchResultPosition=2)
[3] “The Nutrition Source,” Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. (https://nutritionsource.hsph.harvard.edu/carbohydrates/fiber/#:~:text=Fiber%20helps%20regulate%20the%20body’s,vegetables%2C%20legumes%2C%20and%20nuts)
[4] “Ingredient Insider: Now & Next for Fiber & Prebiotic – US,” Innova Market Insights, March 2024
[5] “Ingredient Insider: Now & Next for Fiber & Prebiotic – US,” Innova Market Insights, March 2024
[6] Ankan Kheto, Yograj Bist, Anchal Awana, Samandeep Kaur, Yogesh Kumar, Rachna Sehrawat, Utilization of inulin as a functional ingredient in food: Processing, physicochemical characteristics, food applications, and future research directions, Food Chemistry Advances, Volume 3, 2023. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772753X23002642)
[7] Ankan Kheto, Yograj Bist, Anchal Awana, Samandeep Kaur, Yogesh Kumar, Rachna Sehrawat, Utilization of inulin as a functional ingredient in food: Processing, physicochemical characteristics, food applications, and future research directions, Food Chemistry Advances, Volume 3, 2023. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772753X23002642)
KANSAS CITY — There was a bit of something for everyone in the US Department of Agriculture’s Aug. 12 Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports: a record forecast for US soybean production, the third-largest corn crop on record, slightly less wheat than in July but 9% more than in 2023, higher corn and soybean exports, and steady wheat exports, as well as lower cash corn, soybean and wheat prices.
August brought the first survey-based USDA production estimates for corn, sorghum, soybeans and other oilseeds, rice, cotton, sugar beets and cane and several other crops, plus revisions for all classes of wheat. Revisions for planted and harvested acres also were included in the Crop Production report, with many crops adjusted from the USDA’s June Acreage report. Favorable weather during the planting and growing seasons and improved moisture conditions resulted in summer crop condition ratings well above a year ago.
High yields were projected for many crops, including record-high yields nationally for soybeans, corn and spring wheat other than durum, and for certain individual states for those and several other crops. The new production estimates are key for supply and carryover revisions to the major crops included in the WASDE report for the 2024-25 marketing year.
Soybean futures closed at fresh four-year lows after the USDA data were released, while corn futures closed higher after trading near four-year lows during the Aug. 12 session. Wheat futures were mixed, with Kansas City and Chicago contracts lower but Minneapolis spring wheat futures higher.
Hanging over the corn and soybean markets was the adage, “Big crops get bigger,” which some expect will be the case in later USDA estimates. Others contend that since the USDA started at higher levels for corn and soybean yields and production, there may be limited upward potential.
Record soybean forecasts
The USDA on Aug. 12 pegged 2024 US soybean production at a record-high 4,589 million bus, up 154 million bus, or 3.5%, from its July trend-line projection, and up 424 million bus, or 10%, from 2023. The average pre-report trade estimate for soybean production was nearly 3% lower at 4,469 million bus.
The outlook for a record-high average yield also was unexpected with the USDA’s forecast at 53.2 bus per acre, up 5% from 50.6 bus per acre last year and nearly a bushel above the average pre-report trade expectation of 52.5 bus per acre.
“You can’t look at this any other way than a significantly bearish report,” said Brian Harris, executive director and owner of Global Risk Management. Indeed, after the reports were released midday on Aug. 12, soybean futures began tumbling, settling down 17½¢ at $9.71 a bu in the September contract. The following day, the September contract endured a steeper drop of 24¢, settling at $9.47¼ a bu. At midday on Aug. 14, the September contract had fallen about 23% to near-four-year lows since its rally in May.
The USDA forecast the carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2025, at 560 million bus, up 29% from its July outlook of 435 million bus and up 62% from the current year’s carryover of 345 million bus. The USDA left unchanged nearly all 2024-25 US soybean meal and soybean oil projections. Harris said such adjustments may be forthcoming after the new-crop soybean crushing season starts in early October.
US Soybean Production Credit: Sosland Publishing Co.
In addition to high yields, the record-large soybean crop forecast also was the result of a sharp increase in planted and harvested acres. The USDA said 87,100,000 acres had been planted to soybeans this year, up 4.2% from 83,600,000 acres in 2023, and the August acreage data also was 1,000,000 acres higher than the June Acreage report. The trade had expected reduced acres due to severe flooding in June and July across major growing areas in the Upper Midwest. Lost acreage was likely not reflected in the June Acreage report since that data was collected via surveys in early June and damage from the floods began later that month.
“All that flooding in the Midwest should have taken the total down somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000 acres, but instead the planted area was up a million acres,” Harris said.
Acreage was reduced in some Midwest states that experienced excessive summer rainfall. The August report did show soybean-planted area had been reduced from June by 150,000 acres in North Dakota and by 200,000 acres in Minnesota, but other flood-impacted states showed an increase in acres. Since the June report, soybean area in Iowa rose by 150,000 acres, and South Dakota was up by 350,000 acres. Parts of both states received more than 12 inches of rain in late June.
Surplus moisture may prove more beneficial than harmful, since heavy rain helped offset the impact of heat stress. Most row crops were maintaining their above-average condition ratings.
In the Aug. 12 Crop Progress report, the USDA rated soybeans in the 18 major growing states at 68% good-to-excellent, unchanged from the prior week, well above 59% at the same time last year and 8% higher than the five-year average for the date. Iowa, the second-highest producing soybean state, set a new season high with a rating of 77% good-to-excellent.
Also, some analysts said they believed a significant number of soybean acres had yet to be planted during the time of the flooding, and the saturated soils had likely provided ample moisture for the crop to endure the remaining summer months. The USDA showed a deficit of 410,000 soybean acres between its March Prospective Plantings and June Acreage reports, indicating there were areas that had yet to be planted, but the difference between the March and August reports was significantly higher, showing an increase of 610,000 acres.
Erin Nazetta, director of food and agriculture research at Broadview Group Holdings, LLC, said a shift from corn to soybean acres may explain the discrepancy.
“It could have been that farmers were intending to plant corn when they filled out the June Acreage survey but then ended up not planting corn and planted soybeans instead,” Nazetta said. “But I don’t know if there’s a way to necessarily confirm that.”
Regardless of when the acres had been planted and calculated, the latest data prove the US soybean market will likely be saturated with supplies in 2024-25. Despite the back-to-back days of double-digit declines in soybean futures after the Aug. 12 reports, Harris said he believes the soybean futures market has nearly reached its downside potential and pegged new crop soybeans at $9.60 a bu.
“We’re probably not going to have much more room on the downside just simply because we’re getting so close to the cost of production,” Harris said.
Nazetta, however, indicated there still may be some downside potential left.
“I would love to say that markets historically correct to the production cost levels,” she said. “But I think we have quite a bit of time between now and when the next US crop needs to be planted, and markets do have a tendency to overcorrect both to the upside and to the downside. I do think that is going to play a factor, but I would unfortunately be hesitant to say that hitting the US cost of production for the farmer is going to be setting a strong floor to prices.”
With its tumbling prices, the US soybean market has been more competitive on the global stage. Harris said US soybeans were cheaper than the world’s top soybean suppliers from South America. However, amid economic struggles, the world’s top soybean importer, China, has delayed US soybean purchases in favor of abundant and relatively inexpensive South American supplies.
While the bears appear to be firmly in control of the soybean market, there were some bullish factors lurking in the background. Weather was still a swaying component for the crop.
“If we turn on the rain spigot and don’t shut it off during harvest, then there could be some quality damage across certain sections of the soybean belt, and the price could climb back up to around $10.25 a bu,” Harris said.
Record yield; large corn crop
The USDA forecast 2024 US corn production at 15,147 million bus, up 47 million bus from the WASDE’s trend-line projection in July and down 195 million bus, or 1.3%, from record-high production of 15,342 million bus in 2023. If realized, this year’s corn production will be the third highest on record.
The average yield based on conditions as of Aug. 1 was forecast at a record-high 183.1 bus per acre, up 5.8 bus, or 3.3%, from 177.3 bus in 2023. Harvested area was forecast at 82.7 million acres, down 700,000 acres, or 0.8%, from the prior forecast and down 3.8 million acres, or 4.4%, from 2023. Record-high yields were forecast in most Corn Belt states.
The USDA corn production and yield forecasts were above average trade expectation, while the USDA harvested area estimate was below. Although corn futures closed higher on the day of the report, the gains did not hold in trading on Tuesday, Aug. 13.
“It’s a buyers’ market right now,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX.
Because of the favorable weather outlook for the rest of August, Suderman sees the potential for corn production to go still higher.
“It’s difficult to confirm a low from the August report,” he said. “It’s hard to sustain a rally. The market is uncomfortable confirming a (price) bottom until September.”
July weather mostly was favorable during the key yield-making pollination period, and a cooler, wetter August could boost kernel size, which would result in more bushels. The September USDA production estimate adds field sampling to satellite images and farmer surveys used in August that will give a better idea of the crop’s size and the market more confidence in the USDA number.
US Average Corn Yield Credit: Sosland Publishing Co.
The USDA rated the corn crop in the 18 major producing states as of Aug. 11 at 67% good-to-excellent, up from 59% at the same time last year. The good-to-excellent ratings in the two largest producing states of Iowa and Illinois were 77%. Pollination in the 18 states was nearly complete, with 94% in the silking stage as of Aug. 11. Crop development was ahead of the five-year average pace at 18% dented (drying down), compared with 12% as the 2019-23 average for the date, with Iowa at 30% and Illinois at 28%.
The USDA acreage adjustments were “reasonable,” Suderman said. He expected a lower harvested area estimate, a number that also will be fine-tuned in September, but said that “yield is the primary market factor going forward.”
In its WASDE report, the USDA projected the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2025, at 2,073 million bus, down 24 million bus, or 1.1%, from the July forecast but up 11% from 1,867 million bus in 2024 and up 52% from 1,360 million bus in 2023.
For 2023-24, the USDA lowered use of corn to make glucose, dextrose and starch by 15 million bus but raised exports by 25 million bus, resulting in a drop of 10 million bu in carryover from July. For 2024-25, the USDA raised supply 36 million bus as higher production more than offset lower beginning stocks, carried forward the drop of 15 million bus in the use of corn for sweeteners and starch, and raised exports by 75 million bus (up 50 million bus from 2023-24).
“I think the USDA created some new-crop (2024-25) demand to lessen the pain for farmers,” Suderman said. “I’m not sure you can justify some of the demand numbers.”
He suggested the USDA’s increase in corn exports did not jibe with its forecasts for production estimates in some other countries, especially Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine, all important export competitors. He posited that US corn exports may be 20 million to 30 million bus too high for 2023-24 and said that with the 2024-25 export forecast even higher, “I just don’t see it.”
Suderman suggested it will be difficult for corn prices to sustain a rally over the next two quarters. Supportive “black swan” events include a possible rally in futures if managed funds are prompted to cover their large net short position. But the funds are comfortable with a large net short as long as growers hold large on-farm stocks, which they are likely to do amid current low prices. Some farmers were forced to sell stored old crop corn into a weak market to make room for new crop corn with harvest a couple months away in the key Corn Belt states.
“And you have to respect the wheat market,” Suderman said, adding that the USDA may not have accounted for lower wheat production in some key areas around the world that could boost US wheat exports and prices, pulling corn prices higher.
Smaller wheat crop estimate
The USDA’s revised wheat forecasts offered plenty to digest but had fewer fireworks than in corn and soybeans.
Perhaps the biggest surprise was the USDA lowering its 2024 all-wheat production estimate to 1,982 million bus, at the low end of the range of analysts’ expectations. The hard red winter wheat harvest in its final stages in the Dakotas and Montana came in higher at 776 million bus, and white winter wheat was raised to 243 million bus. Those increases were fully offset by the completed soft red winter wheat harvest estimated at 342 million bus, plus other-spring and durum forecasts that came in below analysts’ expectations at 544 million and 77 million bus, respectively.
Spring and durum crops in the Northern Plains are still projected to top 2023 by 8% and 30%, respectively. Spring wheat harvested acres were forecast down 6% from 2023 (to 10,330,000 acres), with reductions in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Montana offsetting an increase in Idaho. Durum harvested acres were projected higher in all states, for a 25% overall increase from 2023 to 2,017,000 acres.
Enduring dryness in Montana compelled the USDA to lower expected yields there for spring wheat and durum. The expected North Dakota durum yield was reduced by 2 bus to 44 bus per acre, which still would be a record high if realized. North Dakota spring wheat production was forecast at 295 million bus, up 10% from 2023, and the state’s durum crop was forecast at 48 million bus, up 49% from last year.
“Together, that’s about 342 million bus, but concurrent with North Dakota corn production at 524 million bus and soybeans at 238 million bus,” said Bill Lapp, founder and chief economist with Advanced Economic Solutions, Omaha, Neb. “Between corn and soybeans, they’ve got a lot of bushels to market, especially in the eastern half of the state, and it might be that they sell those crops and hold onto durum and spring wheat.”
Also on Aug. 12, the USDA slightly raised its forecast 2024-25 domestic use of wheat, left exports unchanged and lowered carryout on June 1, 2025, to 828 million bus, down 28 million bus, or 3.3%, from July but up 18% from 702 million bus this year.
US All Wheat Production Credit: Sosland Publishing Co.
“That’s a modest change on the demand front, slightly better, but not where the market needs to be to absorb all those supplies,” Lapp said. “So we’re still in pretty tall clover on stocks. We’ve got increased corn stocks, increased soybean stocks, and it sure looks right now like we’ll have plenty of wheat stocks.”
The USDA reduced its projection for hard red spring wheat exports by 5 million bus from July to 255 million bus, but that still was an increase of 20 million bus, or 9%, from 2023 and relatively strong compared with spring wheat exports in the past five years. Hard red winter wheat exports were left unchanged from July at 240 million bus (a 79% increase from 2023), and soft red winter wheat exports were left unchanged at 110 million bus (down 30% from 2023).
“Hard wheat export projections are up in comparison to very weak year-ago numbers, but the market is having a more normal start to export demand than we had last year,” Lapp said. “It’s worth keeping an eye on. We’re still uncompetitive in Europe to a large degree, despite their weather problems.”
The USDA lowered its global wheat carryover forecast by 620,000 tonnes from July to 256.62 million tonnes, down 5.74 million tonnes from this year. The lower carryout projections were a product of lower US and EU production estimates and increased world consumption that offset increased production forecasts for Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Australia.
“USDA added a million tonnes production in Australia; Canada at 35 million tonnes production probably has 2 million to 3 million tonnes upside; and more wheat in Ukraine offset a decline in Europe,” Lapp said. “So there still seems to be adequate supplies of wheat for sale out of major origins. Canada’s production prospects look pretty good, and at some point, the market needs Canada to let go of some of their wheat, but at lower prices. Canadian and North Dakotan farmers can be pretty reluctant to do that.
“The market hasn’t reflected the need for US wheat yet, something we’ve been waiting for since 2022. We’re still not competitive, and it’s hard to say what’s going to change that. The market still seems to be one that has difficulty earning the carries.
“I think most end users would say we’re still historically high, not terribly so, but on the high side of where we’ve been in the past, which is a fair assessment. But unless the yield on corn goes up another 4 bus per acre or soybeans get 100 million bus larger, we’re close to finding a floor on prices, even at this early stage in mid-August.”
Wheat futures prices could move in mixed directions nearby, Lapp said.
“I’m biased marginally lower in Kansas City, where it’ll be tough to earn the carries,” he said. “KC December may go to plus-or-minus $5.50 per bu, with some spikes maybe lower. Putting 40¢ on top would get close to where Minneapolis December should be, and perhaps a dime discount to $5.40 a bu in the Chicago December.”
In the durum market, Chicago gateway prices were hovering around $10 per bu, down about $4 from a year ago but still historically strong.
Wheat and flour market watchers would be wise to keep an eye on funds.
“Funds’ actions are so hard to predict, and grouping them into one monolith is wrong, in my view,” Lapp explained. “They have proven over the past 60 days their ability to really press markets. If things go smoothly weather-wise, and we get a steady-to-larger crop, funds could make one more run into lower prices in the market. Earlier this year, funds were buying anything in sight. Those are 30¢- to 50¢-a-bu moves that have no fundamental backing. I won’t predict that, but it remains a possibility that could bite us.”
Corn, soybean and wheat supplies appear ample for 2024-25, which is good news for buyers. The USDA lowered from July its forecast of average prices paid to farmers in 2024-25 by 80¢ a bu for wheat and 10¢ a bu for corn and soybeans, while nearby futures prices for all three commodities have been hovering near four-year lows.
LONDON — Nestle SA has extended its reign as the world’s most valuable food brand, securing the top spot in Brand Finance’s recently published “Food & Drink 2023” report.
Analyzing factors like brand strength, revenue and royalty rates to determine brand value, Brand Finance’s annual report has consistently ranked the Vevey, Switzerland-based company No. 1 since it was first published in 2015.
“As an iconic global brand, Nestle continues to raise the bar, setting new benchmarks for the industry and inspiring trust among consumers worldwide,” said Savio D’Souza, valuation director for Brand Finance. “With a rich heritage and a portfolio of trusted brands, Nestle has built a legacy of success and an unmatched global reputation.”
Nestle’s brand value increased 8% from $20.8 billion to $22.4 billion over the last year. Brand Finance attributed some of the uptick to strong sales growth across Nestle’s brand portfolio and promising plant-based product innovations, such as whole grain cookie dough from Toll House and new non-dairy milks. In September, the company further explored dairy alternatives through the development and testing of a novel product that was formulated with animal-free dairy protein from Perfect Day.
The report also cited the performance of Nestle’s coffee business, which saw high single-digit growth in organic sales during the first six months of fiscal 2023. Nestle expanded the unit, and its global coffee alliance with Starbucks, following the acquisition of Seattle’s Best Coffee in October. Brand Finance said the company’s Nespresso is the fastest growing non-alcoholic drink brand globally with a 208% value increase, now at $2.9 billion.
“Nestle’s ability to meet evolving consumer preferences, stay ahead of trends, and effectively launch new products has been a driving force behind its continued brand value growth,” Brand Finance said.
Some of the company’s success in identifying consumer preferences comes from its Project Tasty stock-keeping unit (SKU) rationalization program. Nestle began the initiative in 2021 to reduce its portfolio complexity and increase the availability of its high-performing SKUs amid pandemic-era supply chain issues. The program helped identify and eliminate underperformers in Nestle’s catalogue of 100,000 SKUs, of which nearly 33% were generating 1% of total sales, and was subsequently expanded from evaluating individual product lines to entire brands and categories. Project Tasty’s broadened focus is expected to result in a positive impact for fiscal 2023, said Ulf Mark Schneider, chief executive officer of Nestle.
“We are seeing the first expected benefits come in as planned, in particular higher service levels for the company overall and for our high rotation items, in particular,” Schneider said in a conference call on April 25.
After Nestle, Brand Finance ranked Yili as the second most valuable food brand. The Chinese dairy producer has continuously held the position since it overtook Danone in 2020.
Yili’s value gains, rising 17% to $12.4 billion, were fueled by solid domestic sales and improved international revenue. The brand’s value also was aided by the opening of its Global Smart Manufacturing Industrial Park, in Hohhot, China. The facility incorporates some of the world’s most advanced and large-scale technology, according to the report.
“Yili has fostered strong customer loyalty in its local market by consistently delivering products of exceptional quality and perceived health benefits,” Brand Finance said. “Yili’s focus on quality, innovation, and environmental responsibility has contributed to its world-leading reputation in the dairy industry.”
The snack category saw some of the largest growth among food brands, with the segment’s top five brands raising their value by an average of 40%. Four brands from Frito-Lay, a unit of Purchase, NY-based PepsiCo, Inc., were ranked in the upper echelon of snacking, including Lays (also the No. 3 most valuable food brand), Doritos, Cheetos and Tostitos. Want Want, a Chinese rice cracker brand, also was featured in the report’s top five most valuable snack brands.
Among non-alcoholic beverage brands, Coca-Cola Co., Atlanta, once again sits at No. 1. The brand’s value decreased 5% to $33.5 billion in 2023, but it retained its advantage over No. 2 ranked PepsiCo, which had an 11% decline.
“With a rich history, iconic brand story, and a steadfast dedication to customer experience and satisfaction, Coca-Cola has remained a global leader,” D’Souza said. “The brand continues to boost its international reputation and capture the loyalty of generations across the globe through ingenious and powerful marketing campaigns, product evolutions and innovative digital strategies.”
SOLON, OHIO — Nestle USA is tapping into the thin crust pizza trend with the launch of DiGiorno Classic Crust pizza.
Available in four varieties — pepperoni, cheese, meat lovers and supreme — DiGiorno Classic Crust pizza is “made with 100% real cheese and loaded with ½ lb of sauce and other toppings piled on a buttery, crispy thin crust,” the company said.
“Thin crust is the fastest-growing crust in the frozen pizza category but there’s a common misconception that less crust means less toppings,” said Kimberly Holowiak, senior brand manager for DiGiorno. “Our chefs worked hard to keep the flavor and crunch loaded in every bite of the new Classic Crust pizza while ensuring it wouldn’t break the bank.”
DiGiorno Classic Crust pizza is available at select retailers nationwide for a suggested retail price of $5.49.
