The Latest Food Security Report
In its latest Food Security Update, the World Bank highlights that domestic food price inflation remains high around the world.
Inflation remains high in nearly all low- and middle-income countries, and the share of high-inflation high-income countries is rising sharply.
The most affected countries are Africa, North America, Latin America, South Asia, Europe and Central Asia. In 81% of the 153 countries where both food CPI and headline CPI indices were available, real food price inflation exceeded headline inflation (measured as annual change in headline CPI).
In a recent blog, World Bank Vice President for Sustainable Development Jürgen Vogele said fertilizer prices have soared and remain volatile behind the worst global food crisis in a decade, he points out. As the sowing season begins, it poses a threat to global food security.
“So far, the war in Ukraine has mainly affected countries importing wheat and corn. Long-term drought in Cape Verde leads to food crisis We must act now to make fertilizer more accessible and affordable to avoid a prolonged food crisis,” said Voegele.
I will explain three policy proposals to make the price reasonable. Fertilizer use should be made more efficient. For example, providing farmers with appropriate incentives that do not encourage overfishing. When we invest in innovation to develop best practices and new technologies that help improve performance per kilogram of fertilizer used.
In West and Central Africa
High food prices and widespread conflict continue to fuel food insecurity, with more than 38 million people expected to be affected by June 2022 to August.
Staple prices in West Africa are at or near record levels due to below-average production in 2021/2 and disrupted trade flows. “The ongoing war in Ukraine has increased the prices of world food, energy and agricultural products, exacerbating abnormal price trends for domestic and imported food.
In addition to limited economic access to food, conflict is one of the key reasons for food insecurity, especially in the Liptakoguruma region and northwestern Nigeria. “Conflict and death tolls are expected to reach a record high in 2022, increasing food insecurity in the region. We have already surpassed the numbers recorded in the first half of 2021,” said the update.
The World Bank notes that despite good crop conditions, fertilizer shortages are likely to limit food production in many parts of the Sahel.
West Africa, in particular, depends on fertilizer imports from Russia and Ukraine, and the ongoing war has led to significant fertilizer shortages and rising prices.
A deficit of 1.2 to 1.4 million tons of fertilizer is projected in the region. These shortfalls could result in a loss of about 20 million tonnes of cereal production, more than a quarter of production in 2021. Coupled with data from East Africa, food security appears to be underwhelming.
In the very short term, fertilizer shortages will hit Burkina Faso, Ghana and Mali hardest, with supply gaps ranging from 69% in Ghana to 88% in Mali (as of April 2022). “Recent data confirms this, although an overall favorable rainy season in Burkina Faso and Mali has enabled an increase in seeding activity, although conflict and fertilizer shortages limit seeding.”
If the crisis persists, fertilizer shortages will critically limit next year’s crop season even in other countries in regions with smaller supply gaps, contributing to high levels of food insecurity in the medium term.
The agency calls it the worst hunger crisis in the Greater Horn of Africa in 70 years and notes that open trade and continued movement of goods are key to food security.
In East Africa, maize and wheat are the most traded commodities. Other staples are traded and essential in household grocery baskets (rice, sorghum, sugar, etc.).
Trade between countries in the above commodities region has increased to above-average levels of: B.
Exports from Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda to food-deficient countries such as Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia and South Sudan. Reduced rainfall and drought will affect trade in other protein-rich food sources such as livestock.
Other parts of the world are feeling the effects of the crisis Against the backdrop of high global food and fuel prices and general inflationary pressures, countries in the Middle East and North Africa are experiencing high food prices, with the majority of food consumption coming from imports.
It’s getting worse
South Africa’s rate of change in food inflation was 6.8% in August 2021, but increased to 9.2% in July 2022. The World Food Program predicts that by June 2022, the number of people in the world who are severely food insecure will rise to 345 million in 82 countries, and short-term access to food will be severe.
Additionally, the World Food Program and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization have warned that severe food insecurity could worsen in 20 countries or territories between June and September 2022. For more information, see the World Bank Food Security Update online.
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Source: ESI Africa