Liner shipping could capture only 5% of the huge profits in 2022, with up to 25% of large container orders deliberately delayed.

Drewry World Container Index and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) have halted their declines in the new year, but experts say shipping companies will face a very difficult situation in the coming months.

John McCown (Blue Liner Capital) anticipates that the carriers will be profitable in 2023 with a net income to revenue margin in double digits but with aggregate quarterly profit levels below the Q4 level recorded in 2022.

More aggressive capacity management will be a central factor as lines doggedly avoid red ink this year, McCown suggested.

Drewry estimates that shipping lines made a combined operating profit of £290 billion last year.

Peter Sand, chief analyst at freight platform Xeneta, 2023 will indeed be the second year in a row that container volumes will decline. This includes both hot and cold layups, in addition to blank sails.

Xeneta, who is sure to make headlines this year, expects 25% of his planned orders to be deferred, while he expects less than 10% to be canceled.

HSBC said there were downside risks to demand in 2023 as inflation eroded household savings, along with worrying lower tonnage volumes set to hit container markers this year and next year.

Drastic measures will be taken to avoid losses this year.