For a suspicious cartel that President Biden believes is sneaking up on Americans, containership oligopoly does do a poor job of managing its future capabilities. New container ship prices continue to rise, but liner operators and shipping companies place more and more orders at Asian shipyards, ensuring that new ship floods continue to increase between 2023 and 25 doing. According to Alphaliner, the capacity of the ordered is now 27.9% of the capacity in the water. The low cycle ratio in October 2020 was only 8.2%. The total capacity ordered is currently over 7 million 20 foot units. According to Clarksons Platou Securities, capacity will increase significantly over the next two years. By 2023, it will be 2.45 million TEU, or 2.74 million TEU, which is 9.8% and 10.9% of the tonnage at sea. With the increase in orders for , the tonnage shipped in 2025 has also increased to 1.13 million TEU.
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That’s about four times the number expected to ship earlier this year in 2025.
“Last week, 13 more container vessels were ordered, bringing the total for the year to 239,” Stifel’s transport analyst Ben Nolan wrote in a new research note. “This year is already the fifth largest year of containership orders and we are only half this year.” `You know it’s coming, but you can’t look away` “Orders are still growing as shippers are reinvesting their profits in the latest fuel-efficient tonnage,” Alphaliner shipping analyst Stefan Verberckmoes told American Shipper. .. “The size of the purchase order is clearly a concern.” Nolan said of the next wave of new builds: Stupid comment. According to Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy, “The fact that it takes more than two years to build coverage has always been commonplace in the industry. It was a problem. [As a result] we are always booming and bust. I had it. It is not uncommon for airlines to outperform the market.
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This is part of the model.
You overshoot a little and it becomes even over time. And it feels like we’ve crossed the mark. Murphy told American Shipper. ] You’ve learned. I said it many times. “I think I have to eat my own words someday. “The world’s largest shipowners are ordering the most ships Shipping company critics complain that the freight market is no longer competitive enough. But in the new construction market, airlines are actively competing for newer, bigger and more efficient fleets. MSC and Maersk are working together on service capacity through the 2M Alliance. MSC expelled Maersk as the world’s largest shipping company in January. MSC is now running away with a crown as new orders are on the rise. According to Alphaliner, she has the largest order form of 1,482,178 TEU, including charter vessels ordered by intermediaries. The MSC purchase order capacity is currently 33.4% of the surface fleet. The ratio of Evergreen purchase order to fleet is 36.7%, ONE is 30% and Zim (NYSE: ZIM) is 82.3%.
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“Imagine how much money they could have made if the shipping companies had surplus capacity in 2021,” Murphy said.
“The golden solution is to have enough buffer capacity to enjoy the benefits of the market [up]. I’m not saying that another pandemic will occur, but it can and is more seasonal. There is a fundamental problem with this: the rate will be lower if you have surplus capacity, but the overall profit will be higher just because you have moved more cases [during the rise of the market].”So do you adjust your ability to reach the top or bottom of the valley? Neither is optimal. However, the wearer must thread the needle. They are best suited for peaks, but should have capacity that can be reasonably removed in the valley. It’s priced below the peak, but it’s very beneficial to line operators. Figure: Freight Wave SONAR Charter departure, dismantling, deceleration voyage. Aside from empty runs, airlines can phase out charter contracts and increase the fleet-to-lease ratio they own to reduce the impact of the next wave of new builds. “It’s clear that the focus is now on owning [assets],” Murphy said.
For custom vessels owned by the liner itself, future tonnage in your country may replace the current charter tonnage. On custom vessels owned by brokers and leased to liners, new, more fuel efficient charter tonnages may replace older charter tonnages. “There have been many technical improvements,” Murphy said. “New vessels can operate much more efficiently.” With 4,444 new vessels (owned or chartered), airlines will replace old tonnage with facilities that can use new fuels to meet future environmental regulations. can do. According to Nolan, “one of the culprit is arguably those who order more efficient vessels operating on LNG or methanol, or the latest fuel types of the month.” Shipping companies say old tonnage. You can also offset future damage to new vessels by disposing of them. “This is certainly one way carriers are trying to offset this influx of supply,” Murphy said. Yet another possible counterweight for new buildings: Environmental regulations may effectively require ships to “slow down” (navigate more slowly) to reduce emissions. .. The slower the ship, the more ships will be needed to perform the same service. “Assuming that within the next 10 years, some politicians (perhaps the EU, not the IMO [International Maritime Organization]) will push up the forced speed limit. “There is,” Murphy said.
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