The poultry industry is facing a myriad of challenges and opportunities as outlined in the USDA’s January 2025 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook. This report sheds light on key trends impacting the broiler, egg, and turkey sectors, including production declines, export challenges, and shifting price projections. As the industry navigates through these complexities in 2025, it is crucial for poultry producers to stay informed and adapt to the changing landscape.
Broiler production experienced a significant decline in November 2024, reaching 3.65 billion pounds, a 16.5% drop from October and a 4.4% decrease year-over-year. Factors contributing to this decline included reduced slaughter days and slight weight reductions. The industry also faced challenges from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), which disrupted production at the end of 2024. With revised forecasts for 2025 projecting first-quarter production at 11.7 billion pounds, it is clear that the industry is grappling with continued losses from HPAI and a cautious start to the year.
Egg production also saw declines in late 2024 due to HPAI and lower layer inventories. Despite a modest recovery, 2025 egg production is forecasted at 7.82 billion dozen, reflecting a 1.2% increase from 2024 but still below pre-HPAI levels in 2021. Pricing trends for eggs are also affected, with December 2024 wholesale egg prices averaging 491.95 cents per dozen and the 2025 annual price projected at 294 cents per dozen.
Turkey production faced challenges in 2024, with November production reaching 394 million pounds, down 12.3% year-over-year. HPAI impacts were significant, with December 2024 seeing the loss of 1.48 million turkeys. Despite these challenges, the industry is projected to have a first-quarter turkey production of 1.23 billion pounds in 2025, with annual production estimated at 5.1 billion pounds. Turkey exports are also impacted, with Mexico remaining the primary market for U.S. turkey exports in 2024.
On the bright side, broiler exports continued to show strength in November 2024, with shipments totaling 602.7 million pounds, up 5.7% year-over-year. Despite challenges, exports are projected to reach 6.735 billion pounds in 2025. Pricing trends across poultry products are also noted, with rising price projections for broilers, eggs, and turkeys in 2025 due to supply constraints and HPAI impacts.
In conclusion, the road ahead for poultry producers is complex, with challenges such as HPAI disruptions and production declines. However, there are also opportunities in export demand, stable pricing, and the industry’s resilience. By staying informed and agile, poultry producers can navigate through these challenges and position themselves for recovery in the year ahead.
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