Chicken demand collapsed in late 2022, prices followed and there is more to come, soon!

This casts a dark shadow on producer profitability at the end of 2022. Breasts averaged about $3.50 per pound earlier in the year, the highest ever.

In the third quarter of 2022, US production increased by approximately 3% compared to the same quarter last year. This was the largest annual production increase since the first quarter of 2020.

September to October 2022, broiler placements increased by 5% compared to the same period last year.

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Boneless / skinless breast meat, typically sees lower prices after the summer. However, the observed changes go far beyond this typical change. This is a broader cyclical decline. Demand index values​​ were at record levels for spring 2021 and spring 2022. This was predictably unsustainable.

In early 2022, profit margins were at their highest in at least 40 years. Now producer will suffer a net loss of over $0.25 per pound on an RTC basis. An unacceptable situation that can lead to painful decisions. A return to vigilance on the supply front should provide bullish support for the broiler market to deepen into 2023.

However, willing buyer/willing seller and the demand will ultimately determine the price.

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