Ukraine is one of the world’s leading producers of cereals, especially wheat, barley and corn. During the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February this year, the port of Ukraine’s Black Sea was closed or damaged, capturing 25 million tonnes of grain that could not be shipped from 2021 crops. This had an immediate impact on global grain prices and inventories. According to Ukrainian agricultural expert Yevhenii Tkachenko, the Ukrainian grain system is centered on transport to and via the Black Sea port. He said the port’s grain elevators and storage facilities are okay, but those 25 million tonnes of grain cannot be easily moved until those ports are reopened. High grain price The point of this crisis is that “there will be no shortage of wheat and it will be more expensive”, at least until the fall harvest of 2023 in the Northern Hemisphere.
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Jim Faisle, a former USDA employee and now a member of the International Food Policy Research Institute. In a Tkachenko meeting with Ukrainian grain producers, these farmers have stated that they will not harvest crops in 2022. The Ukrainian grain production and transportation system targets transportation to and through the Black Sea port, so farmers do not want to bear the cost of harvesting what cannot be transported. Overland grain transport does not work, Tkachenko said. Neighboring countries are encouraging land transportation to transport grain to other European ports where it can be transported. But Tkachenko noted that trucks can carry 40 tons of grain and there`s 25 million tons waiting to be shipped, so it`s not a feasible idea. Until those Black Sea ports are opened, Ukrainian grains aren`t going anywhere, and grain costs for the whole world will remain high, said Jim Wiesemeyer from Pro Farmer.
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Wiesemeyer believes the situation with Black Sea ports will have to be confronted at some point, although the US isn`t involved in that process at this time. There will still be enough grain, especially wheat, to meet worldwide demand, Glauber noted, although costs are high and will remain so for more than another year. However, if Russia`s the war on Ukraine goes on beyond 2023, then the worldwide grain situation will change for the worst, he said. low grain stocks Faith emphasized that, with the exception of China (which always seems to be an unknown factor from a grain production perspective), current global grain inventories are at their lowest levels since 2007-2008. Soaring grain prices have already hit some countries, according to Glauber, because the regions most hit are the Middle East and North Africa, which consume large amounts of wheat.
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Wheat accounts for 35% of the calories burned in the region, and 70% of this wheat comes from the Black Sea region (Ukraine and Russia). When it comes to livestock feed production, livestock and poultry producers are still unaffected, but rising grain prices are catching up and digging into the sector’s rate of return, Glauber concludes. I attached it.