According to analysts, the epidemic of classical swine fever in Germany’s major pig farming areas has hit the sector seriously as major markets such as China are expected to maintain import bans for years. Gave. The outbreak on a farm in Emsland, Lower Saxony is the first outbreak in the northwest, where much of the German pig sector is concentrated. Although harmless to humans, ASF is often deadly to pigs and was first discovered in eastern
Germany in September 2020 and is believed to have been spread by Polish wild boars. As a result, China has banned the import of German pork and suspended trade that brought about 1 billion euros ($ 1.04 billion) annually. Following several other major importers, including South Korea and Japan, rival EU producer Spain was one of those who were able to open new businesses in Asia after the ban. “This is very scary news, and if there was hope that ASF was confined to eastern Germany and the disease was controlled, these were completely shattered,” said Justin, Rabobank’s global strategist animal protein.
According to the Federal Bureau of Statistics, Lower Saxony raises about 6.4 million pigs and piglets and is Germany’s largest producer of adjacent pigs. “As the ASF incident continues to occur in Germany, it is expected that the import ban on German pork from China will never end,” said Tim Koch, a meat analyst at the German market consultant AMI. “There is no hope that China will be able to lift the ban in the near future.” Germany, the largest pork producer in the European Union for many years, moved to Spain last year after accessing China, the world’s largest importer of pork. I was overtaken. , I was lost.
Swine fever fear spreads across the rest of Europe
Netherlands, France at risk The world’s largest herd of Chinese pigs has also suffered heavy casualties from ASF but is beginning to recover. “China is reducing the need for pork imports from Europe anyway, and it may take years before the Chinese market resumes German pork exports,” Koch said. The increasing number of wild boars that can travel long distances in Germany means that the disease was expected to spread despite the government’s attempt to lock wild boars in eastern Germany.
In Germany, approximately 4,000 wild boar ASFs occur, primarily in the eastern federal states of Brandenburg and Saxony. The outbreak also raises concerns about the potential for spread to neighboring countries. “There are concerns that if ASF can make a 500-kilometer jump from eastern Germany to northern Germany, it could move to the large pork industry in the Netherlands and France,” Schallard said. Germany’s pig farming industry may continue to shrink as there is no immediate prospect of regaining access to important export markets such as China.
“Germany’s pork sector wants access to China and other markets that have been lost since the arrival of ASF,” Schallard said. “But I think there is a recognition that ASP will stay in Germany for a long time and the German pork industry will have to adapt to a smaller customer base.”