The outlook for the poultry sector in 2023 is optimistic despite various challenges such as animal diseases, rising input costs and labor shortages.
The Rabobank Global Animal Sector team published a first-quarter outlook report with reasons for hope in the poultry industry. The continued prevalence of avian influenza is a longer-term challenge, with outbreaks reported in North America, Europe, and South America.
Despite higher feed costs, the Rabobank report predicts a decrease in prices by up to 15%.
The report states that global trade should be strong in 2023 but may be impacted by avian influenza, government efforts to restrict trade, and high prices.
The US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service predicts that more poultry from the US will be exported in 2023. In the third quarter of 2022, poultry trade set new volume record highs globally, with strong demand for breast meat and other chicken parts.
Tyson Foods attributed its positive fiscal fourth quarter results to the performance of its poultry segment and its commitment to streamlining the business. Tyson raised prices to offset rising costs and is now focusing on optimizing its product mix to maximize profitability.
If pivoting was the theme of the meat and poultry industry during the pandemic, trading-down is the theme of 2023 as high food prices persisted in 2022.
The poultry sector was the low-cost leader in the retail and foodservice sectors, but whether it will continue into 2023 remains to be seen.
Rabobank’s report states that US broiler prices will remain below 2022 levels but above the five-year average in the first half of 2023, and trend higher in the second half.
The sustained growth in global poultry trade over the past year was due to multiple factors, including government intervention.