Poultry supply is expected to experience a “significant” deflation from the first quarter of 2023, while beef prices are expected to rise another 15% and remain high through 2025. Widespread drought has forced many of the livestock industry to sell herds early for slaughter, reducing projected herds for next year. He said it affects numbers.

Falling chicken prices are likely to be welcome news for the poultry-centric concept in food services. Some restaurants in the US have tweaked their menus by promoting dark chicken and thighs, which tend to be less expensive than breasts and tenders.

Restaurants to benefit from lower prices for bone-in chicken wings, which will allow the chain to boost profit margins while avoiding additional price hikes.

Analysts predict restaurants could cut menu prices or offer discounts if the price drop extends to the naturally-raised chicken that fast-casual chains typically buy. However, this category may differ from traditional chicken. Chicken is used in about 60% of the appetizers US restaurants sell and accounts for 20% of his food bill.

The poultry industry has greatly improved production. This trend could lead to normal prices by the spring and a “sharp drop” in the fall of 2023, staving off the spread of bird flu.

Beef products face a radically different future, with steaks likely to see steep price increases and ground beef more slowly. Its likely to be hit hardest as it has lagged two years of inflation.

“We still believe … commodity inflation is cyclical and commodity costs are cyclical, so we’re going through quite a bit of inflation right now, but at some point this cycle will change,”That philosophy hasn’t changed… It just means we’re testing it a bit more, perhaps in this short-term cycle, and hopefully our guests will be loyal and come back to us” According to Food Dive interview.

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Source: Food Dive