Global Pork Trading Expectation for the remainder of 2022
Rabobank expects global pork trading to recover in the second half of the year after declining levels in the first half of 2022, but inflation and African swine fever (ASF) remain obstacles, Rabobank said in the third quarter of 2022 Said in the World Pork Quarterly Report.
According to Chenjun Pan, senior analyst at Rabobank’s animal protein, the surge in demand for pork imports from China is expected to help boost global pork trade in the second half of 2022. In the first four months of 2022, China’s imports fell 65% year-on-year. Rabobank describes pork consumption as “resilient” in most regions. “This is because pork is neither the most expensive nor the cheapest protein, so consumption changes slowly,” Pan explained.”
The impact of the economic slowdown on pork consumption is channel-related, and consumers value money comparisons, reducing the performance of the food service industry and improving the performance of the retail industry.” North America shows strong demand for pork, but demand in Europe will increase coalition. However, many Asian countries expect demand to weaken due to disease epidemics and economic concerns, Rabobank said.
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Despite rising inflation, feed and energy costs are falling, and pork producers are taking a break. First introduced in Germany in September 2020, the ASF spread westward, disrupting trade in the affected regions. “Most of the outbreaks in commercial cattle herds occur on small farms in Germany and Italy, with limited direct impact on production,” said Pan. “But ASF-related trade restrictions have disrupted the European market, creating oversupply of certain products and pushing prices down.”
In Asia, ASF has a particular impact on pork production and prices in Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines. US Department of Agriculture estimates that Thai pork supply could decline by 35% this year. Since September 2021, national prices have risen by 60%. Vietnam became the first country to approve a global commercial ASF vaccine in early June. Since then, trade flows have improved, Rabobank said. “ARSP is still a problem in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, but it remains contained,” Pan added. “With the addition of testing capabilities, the industry is focused on reducing spreads. The North American industry is accelerating awareness and prevention efforts to limit the risk of invasion of local cattle herds.”
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Source: Meatpoultry
