According to USDA, global pork production will increase in 2023, while exports will decline, both of which will be influenced by China.
Production Global production is expected to grow by 1% to 111 million tons in 2023 as production in China increases. China’s pork production is expected to grow by 2% as it continues to recover from the impact of African swine fever (ASF). High feed costs in China are expected to reduce incentives for overfeeding pigs.
The United States, Brazil and Mexico are also expected to increase production, more than making up for declines in other major producers including the EU and the United Kingdom (UK). Rising feed, energy costs and environmental regulations will hold back EU production. US production is expected to grow 1% to 12.4 million tonnes in 2023 as hog yields gradually increase and become heavier. UK producers are facing higher feed costs and lower demand for domestic pork.
Brazil and Mexico are increasing their domestic demand for pork to meet increased domestic demand, partly because consumers are looking for alternatives to the high price of beef, and partly because export demand is rising in several major countries.
Production in Vietnam continues to recover and ASP controls protect the sector from large outbreaks. Imports and Exports Global exports in 2023 are expected to fall by 2% to 10.5 million tonnes as China’s imports fall for his second consecutive year.
Despite ongoing problems with ASF, pork imports from the Philippines are also expected to decline as the import policy ends in 2022. The temporary increase in pork quotas will end in May 2022 and the reduced tariffs have been extended until the end of 2022.
Pork imports from the UK are expected to return to pre-pandemic consumption trends, with a shift in purchasing from retail to catering and a shift in demand from domestic to imported pork.
U.S. exports are forecast lower in 2023 on easing demand by key importers such as Mexico and China.
Forecasts for major global players China, which would account for 47% of world production, is expected to produce 52 million tons (Mt) of pork, representing an increase of 2.0% with respect to 2022 (51 Mt).
The European Union’s production is expected to fall 0.4% to 22.6 Mt, while its exports are expected to be 3.8 Mt, down 3.6% compared to 2022.
The United States is forecast to increase its production by 0.7% to reach 12.4 Mt, although its exports will fall by 1.7%, reaching only 2.8 Mt.
Japan is expected to be the world’s second-largest pork importer with 1.5 Mt, although its imports are expected to decrease 1.6%.
Brazil is forecast to increase its production by 1.6%, reaching 4.4 Mt. Exports are also expected to increase by 2.7% to 1.3 Mt.
Mexico should grow 4.6% in production, with an approximate 1.6 Mt, and maintain its position as the world’s third largest importer, despite the fact that this volume is estimated to decrease by 0.8% and reach 1.24 Mt.
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