U.S. logistics managers expect delays in deliveries of goods from China in early January due to cancellations of container ship departures and export rollovers by shipping companies.
Shipping lines are implementing aggressive capacity management strategies, announcing more cancellations and suspending services to balance supply and demand.
According to the latest CNBC Supply Chain Heatmap data, US manufacturing orders in China are down his 40%.
As a result, factories in China will be closing two weeks earlier than usual due to the Chinese New Year.
Asia-based global shipping company HLS has warned its customers about the business environment for ocean shipping in a recent statement.
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HLS analysts forecast a further 2.5% increase in container volume in 2023, with a nearly 5-6% increase in capacity. This will also have a negative impact on fares in 2023.
There are early signs of inventory adjustments. Overall business volumes and order flows from Asia remain subdued as carriers cancel more ships and there is little upward momentum heading into the Chinese New Year.
HLS cited trade data showing US imports from Asia fell to a 20-month low in October. Spot rates for containers from Asia to the US West Coast and have little room for further price reductions.
The major West Coast ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have seen shippers divert some cargo to the East Coast to avoid risk. Trade shows the biggest decline. Massive union strikes in West Coast ports.
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The recent surge in COVID-19 lockdowns in China continues to affect manufacturing operations and delay freight spending. Interstate and intercity transportation also have local access barriers, primarily related to truck driver testing requirements, severely impacting truck capacity.
Declining manufacturing orders from the US and EU are also impacting Vietnam, which is a booming manufacturing hub as trade moves away from China.
The General Statistics Office of Vietnam reports that 12,500 businesses have closed every month since the beginning of this year, up 24.8% year-on-year
According to HLS, a shortage of manufacturing orders and a rise in borrowing rates to 13.2% from 6.5% in Vietnam has led many companies to close factories rather than sign new contracts. Cancellations of sea routes to Vietnam in December he increased by 50%.
Unlike the decrease in orders out of China, trade data indicates that the Europe-to-U.S. route is one of the possibly most surprising and certainly most significant developments. This sharp rise and strategic shift from over-dependency on trade with China and geopolitical tensions over Russia are the main drivers of the EU-U.S. trade boom.
The global trading map is being rapidly redrawn, with EU-U.S. trade and investment in U.S. rising sharply as economic ties between the West and China are subjected to critical scrutiny. This year, the U.S. has imported more goods from Europe than China – a big shift from the 2010s.
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