Mars’ $29b Kellanova takeover leads bakery and snack M&A surge


Kellanova and Mars

Expected to be the biggest transaction of 2024 is the acquisition of Kellanova by candy giant Mars Inc, a deal that values the Pop-Tarts and RXBar maker at nearly $30bn. Mars is reportedly paying $83.50 per share for Kellanova, representing a substantial premium over the company’s recent stock price. The all-cash deal by the privately held company also takes on $6bn in net debt, according to people close to the deal. Mars boasts annual sales that exceed $50bn.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Kellogg Co. spinoff has a market value of around $22bn, but shares skyrocketed once the news broke. At the time of writing, the share price of Kellanova is up 8%, at $80.54. On August 7, the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter results and raised its 2024 outlook.

The takeover comes less than a year after the split of Kellogg Co into two business entities.

WK Kellogg Co is Kellogg’s North American cereal business, which includes brands like Frosted Flakes, Froot Loops, Special K, Rice Krispies and Corn Flakes.

The second entity – Kellanova – stewards a suit of iconic brands – including Pringles, Cheez-It, Pop-Tarts, Nutri-Grain, RXBAR and others – along with plant-based labels like MorningStar Farms. The unit also oversees Kellogg’s international cereal brands such as  Frosties, Zucaritas, Krave and Miel Pops; its noodle operations; and North American breakfast items like Eggo waffles.

The Kellogg’s name, however, remains on brand packaging for both companies in all territories around the world. The Mars takeover will create a powerhouse in the global snacks market, consolidating the candy maker’s iconic brands – including M&M’s and Snickers, among others – with Kellanova’s extensive portfolio. Analysts believe the deal is likely to pass regulatory muster as the two have very few overlapping products.

The deal is also one of the largest packaged-foods transaction since the merger between Kraft Foods Group and HJ Hein – now known as Kraft Heinz Co. This move is seen as part of a broader trend in the food sector, where companies are consolidating to achieve scale amid changing consumer preferences and economic pressures.

A notable trend is the continued consolidation within the bakery ingredients sector, ​which has seen intense M&A activity over the past decade. Companies like Orkla​ and Puratos​ have been particularly active,​ acquiring numerous businesses to expand their product portfolios and geographic reach. This consolidation is expected to lead to reduced costs for customers as synergies are realized, although it may also result in less choice over time.

WK Kellogg

Meanwhile, the North American cereal business of Kellogg Co is implementing an ambitious strategy to streamline its manufacturing network to offset flagging sales​ as consumers switch to private labels to cope with sticky inflation.

Under the plan, the Froot Loops maker will shut down its Omaha, Nebraska, plant by the end of 2026 and scale back production at its Memphis, Tennessee facility, in late 2025. It also intends to increase production at its Battle Creek, Michigan; Belleville, Ontario; and Lancaster, Pennsylvania plants, with planned spending of around $450m-$500m on its supply chain efforts.

The reorganization is expected to result in cumulative restructuring pretax charges of between $230m and $270m. The North American cereal business posted net sales of $672m for its second quarter. Shares fell more than 2% after the company projected 2024 adjusted net sales to come in at the lower end of its prior forecast range of 1% growth to 1% decline.

The Nebraska shutdown will reduce the Special K maker’s headcount by around 550 people; however, opportunities will open at the plants where production would increase.

WK Kellogg employed around 3,150 workers at the end of last year.

Corbion and Novotech

Pic: GettyImages/mstwin

The sustainable ingredient specialist has acquired the Delhi-based bread improver business from Novotech Food Ingredients to further its ongoing strategy to expand geographically and in this instance, to fortify its presence in the Asia Pacific region.

“By enlarging our footprint, augmenting our portfolio with products tailored to local market needs and enhancing our collaboration with India-based global customers, we’re showing our commitment to sustained growth in India and broadening our reach into Asia,” said Andy Muller, president of Corbion’s Functional Ingredients and Solutions division.

“Leveraging local manufacturing strengths will help reinforce our position as a global solutions provider that is regionally relevant.”

The authentic, locally developed offerings from the bread improver business is a natural fit with Corbion’s existing portfolio.

“We want our customers to make the most of the advantages that come with a leading global supplier,” added Muller.

“Our worldwide network offers them the flexibility and confidence of consistent sourcing. Yet, we also know that local expertise adds significant value. This acquisition strengthens Corbion’s capacity to deliver both a global approach and regional insights, ultimately providing our customers with greater value.”

AB Mauri UK&I and Romix Foods

Pic: GettyImages/Yagi Studio

The global supplier of yeast and bakery ingredients has completed the acquisition of Romix Foods, a specialist food blending business based in Leigh, northwest England, which is specifically known for its allergen ingredients.

“This strategic acquisition enables AB Mauri to expand its footprint in this growing segment and provides additional flexibility to our wider UK manufacturing footprint,” said David Cooper, MD of AB Mauri UK&I.

“This ensures that we can continue to meet the demands of increasing variety and complexity from the markets we serve.”

Romix MD Mick McGowan and the existing management team will continue to lead the company.

“We are committed to leveraging the strengths of our combined organisations to foster growth, innovation, and overall customer satisfaction,” said McGowan.



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How an ultra-processed food tax will affect manufacturers


A recent survey of UK consumers claimed most Brits want a tax on junk and ultra-processed food manufacturers, believing it would help tackle the obesity crisis.

Consumers in the UK have an apparently growing vendetta against UPF​, with near two-thirds (62%) of them telling a Health Foundation survey unhealthy food advertisements​ should be banned from TV and online before 9pm, as well as 53% of them demanding a tax on UPF makers.

But it’s not only Brits. EU consumers also villainise UPFs, with 67% believing they contribute to rising obesity levels and other health issues, according to a recent EIT Food Consumer Observatory survey.

EU citizens are also less trusting of UPFs in general, with 40% saying the industry isn’t regulated enough and 67% not liking it when their foods contain unrecognisable ingredients.

So, if one was implemented, how would a tax impact manufacturers? And would it help slim down consumers’ waistlines?

Who would police a UPF tax?

Launching a UPF tax would be difficult to manage and unlikely to settle consumer concerns, according to Danny Butt, director of consultancy Food Innovation Solutions. “If you’re talking at a macro level, as a tax, it could be similar to the sugar tax [in the UK], so if it’s built in line with that then you have a situation where some brands have to cost reduce or absorb [the tax].”

However, the increased cost of living has already led to product price hikes, while retailers are also reluctant to pass on additional costs to customers. “But the impact would be specific to the brands, so a company like Coke could put prices up because they are a market leader, but private label and smaller businesses wouldn’t be able to stomach it,” he continues.

And then there’s the continuing debate around what a UPF is. Consumers often consider UPFs to be high fat, salt and sugar junk foods, “but when you tell them it’s also their charcuterie in the fridge, their views change”, says Butt, “they don’t want foods like those to be taxed”.  

How would a UPF tax affect consumer health? Source: Getty

A world first UPF tax

A UPF tax has been enforced in Columbia for some months now. Considered to be the world’s first, in 2023 Colombia enforced a tax of 10% on certain UPF foods​, increasing to 15% this year with the expectation it will rise to 20% by 2025. 

The tax has reportedly already had a mild effect on UPF consumption, with sales down 5% by the end of 2023, Kantar data showed. 

Colombia has not used the Nova system to define which foods are subject to the UPF tax. Instead, it has implemented a threshold system covering salt, sugar and saturated fats. 

Milk products with added sugar, sausages, cold cut meats, confectionery, snack, bakery and several other food types have all been included in the tax. However, traditional Colombian cuisines are exempt, including dulce leche and salchichon. 

“There are a range of issues with a UPF tax,” says Klaus Grunert, EIT Food Consumer Observatory director and professor at Denmark’s Aarhus University. “There is no clear definition of what a UPF is. There needs to be a definition of what it is, but that is for regulators who would draw on expertise from nutritionists.”

If a tax were to be implemented, Grunert suggests it could be based on the level of excessive negative nutrients a product contains, rather than the level of processing used to produce it. “But in Denmark, for a short period [in 2011], we had a tax on saturated fat that didn’t survive [and was repealed in 2012] due to all sorts of practical issues,” he concedes. Butt, however, suggests using a traffic light system.

Professional bodies and food industry stakeholders already utilise rough definitions for the levels of food processing using the Nova classification system. It places foods into categories by degree of processing, such as unprocessed, processed ingredients, processed foods or ultra-processed foods. But it has been criticised for not specifying what UPF is ‘healthy’ or ‘unhealthy’ and for relying on the levels of processing and not nutrition levels.

Do consumers know what UPF is?

There is currently no official agreement on what a UPF of concern might be or how it would be categorised in terms of ‘good’ and ‘bad’.

How can consumers be educated on UPF? Source: Getty

And with that, there is a need for consumer education around UPF as a whole, but as both Butt and Grunert highlight, it’s not a linear story. “People have to make their own call and that all starts with education,” Butt explains. “Yet sometimes even a little information is often more dangerous than no information,” he adds, pointing out that national and international news coverage often lumps only junk food into the UPF category, when it’s a much bigger picture than that.

A lack of consumer education around UPF is a big issue, a point surfaced by multiple data sets in recent months​. In the EIT Food Consumer Observatory study, consumers found it difficult to place foods into the Nova classifications, showing a lack of knowledge.

“Unless something [robust] is put in place, then the debate [of what UPF is] continues to go round in circles,” says Butt. “When you’re dealing with consumers, they can’t differentiate between an additive or a ‘nasty’.

“Unless someone weighs in with a sensible decision, then there will be no unbiased, useful rule to work with. But, the industry needs to do a better job of communicating what processes are used.”

When it comes to UPF policing, both Butt and Grunert agree it’s the job of governments. And while there may be a reluctance from governments to take account of it now, as the debate and demonising of certain foods grows, they may want to soon to ensure manufacturers can work to clear frameworks.  



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Unpacking the $35.9bn acquisition of Kellanova by Mars


Poised to become one of the biggest M&A headlines of the year,​ Mars – one of the world’s largest family-owned businesses – has inked an agreement to acquire Kellanova for $83.50 per share in cash, for a total consideration of $35.9bn.

The purchase of Kellanova is a cornerstone of Mars’ overarching ambition to double its snacking portfolio over the next decade: by expanding into more occasions and more categories. It unites two iconic 100-plus-year-old businesses with complementary footprints and brand portfolios.

“Both businesses are performing well, have outstanding brands, people-focused cultures, complementary portfolios, a commitment to sustainability, a true sense of purpose and a deep history of success over decades,” said Mars in a statement.

“This combination allows both businesses to achieve their full potential and together, we will have an exciting and unique opportunity to meet the needs of billions of consumers with trusted, loved and innovative products and create further opportunity for both businesses to achieve their full potential.”

Revamping the future of snacking

A major player in the confectionery space, Mars has been increasingly focused on diversifying into healthier snack options. The addition of Kellanova’s snack bar business – which includes megabrands like RXBar and NutriGain – will strengthen its presence in the growing market for better-for-you snacks. It reduces the candy maker’s reliance on its traditional confectionery products, which are typically high in sugar and chocolate-heavy, especially important as cocoa prices remain elevated, having reached historical highs in March of nearly $10,000 per metric ton.

Poul Weihrauch

It also gives Mars a stronger foothold in the competitive snack bar space, dominated by major snack players like PepsiCo (Quaker bars) and Mondelez (Clif Bar).

Mars will become a strong contender in the salty snacks sector, able to capitalize on the strong brand equity of Kellanova’s billion-dollar brands – Pringles​ and Cheez-It​ – that have established loyal customer bases and outperform category competitors, particularly with Gen Z and Millennial consumers. However, Mars believes there is still ‘untapped potential’ with many of Kellanova’s brands and as such, has ‘no plans at this time to sunset any’ of them.

The diversification will help the Chicago-headquartered company tap into new revenue streams, especially in fast-growing geographies like Latin America. Mars CEO Poul Weihrauch also told the media there is opportunity in places like China and Africa for the two companies to grow together. Mars has a larger footprint in China, while Kellanova is stronger in Africa.

This is reinforced by complementary routes-to-market, supply chains and local operations. The deal also brings together a global workforce with solid R&D capabilities and brand-building experience. By acquiring the well-established snack business, Mars will benefit from economies of scale and potential cost synergies. This could involve integrating supply chains, manufacturing processes and marketing strategies, ultimately leading to improved efficiency and profitability.

Andrew Clarke

The agreement also plays into the CSR commitments of both companies. Kellanova has a long history of social and environmental leadership, and its Better Days Promise initiative complements the Mars Sustainable in a Generation Plan, which is delivering tangible progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. According to Mars, once the deal is finalized, Kellanova will become part of the Mars Net Zero commitment and align with the Mars Responsible Marketing code.

“We will honor the heritage and innovation behind Kellanova’s incredible snacking and food brands while combining our respective strengths to deliver more choice and innovation to consumers and customers,” said Weihrauch.

“We have tremendous respect for the storied legacy that Kellanova has built and look forward to welcoming the Kellanova team.”

Transaction details

The $35.9bn price tag includes all of Kellanova’s brands – its portfolio of snacks, international cereal and noodles, North American plant-based foods and frozen breakfast – along with its assets and operations.

The transaction price represents a premium of approximately 44% to Kellanova’s unaffected 30-trading day volume weighted average price and a premium of approximately 33% to Kellanova’s unaffected 52-week high, as of August 2, 2024. The total consideration represents an acquisition multiple of 16.4x LTM adjusted EBITDA, as of June 29, 2024.

Mars intends to finance the purchase through a cash and a debt financing commitment of $29bn from JPMorgan Chase and Citi.

The agreement was unanimously approved by both Mars’ and Kellanova’s Board of Directors. The WK Kellogg Foundation Trust and the Gund Family have also committed to vote in favor of the transaction (shares representing 20.7% of Kellanova’s common stock, as of August 9, 2024).

Steve Cahillane

However, the transaction – which is expected to close in the first half of 2025 – is subject to regulatory approvals. There have been reports of proposed antitrust hurdles, with the US Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission under the Biden administration aggressively challenging big mergers and acquisitions. Others believe the deal is likely to pass regulatory muster as the two have very few overlapping product lines.

In the case of failure to obtain regulatory approval, Mars will have to pay a termination fee of $1.25bn. Kellanova will have to pay $800m to Mars if there is a change in board recommendation.

The agreement permits Kellanova to declare and pay quarterly dividends consistent with historical practice prior to the closing of the transaction.

Citi and law firm Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom advised Mars. Goldman Sachs and Kirkland & Ellis advised Kellanova, while investment bank Lazard advised Kellanova’s Board of Directors.

What lies ahead

Upon completion of the deal, Kellanova will become part of Mars Snacking, led by global president Andrew Clarke. The combined company will be based in Chicago, although Kellanova’s Battle Creek-headquarters will remain a core location.

“This is an exciting opportunity to create a broader, global snacking business, allowing Kellanova and Mars Snacking to both achieve their full potential,” said Clarke.

“The Kellanova brands significantly expand our Snacking platform, allowing us to even more effectively meet consumer needs and drive profitable business growth. Our complementary portfolios, routes-to-market and R&D capabilities will unleash enhanced consumer-centric innovation to shape the future of responsible snacking.”

Steve Cahillane, Kellanova’s current chairman, president and CEO, said he would leave when the deal closes. Previously chair and CEO of Kellogg Company since 2017, Cahillane steered the conglomerate through a major restructuring that saw it split into two new entities.​ Kellanova was spun off from cereal-focused WK Kellogg Co. in October 2023, subsequently posting strong earnings and raising its guidance for FY24. Net sales in 2023 topped $13bn.

Kellanova has a presence in 180 markets and approximately 23,000 employees across the globe.

For its part, Mars brings in more than $50bn in annual sales for its household brands like Kind, Snickers, M7M, Dove, Pedigree and Whiskas, among others, and more than 150,000 associates across its Petcare, Snacking and Food businesses.

“Kellanova has been on a transformation journey to become the world’s best snacking company and this opportunity to join Mars enables us to accelerate the realization of our full potential and our vision,” said Cahillane.

“The transaction maximizes shareholder value through an all-cash transaction at an attractive purchase price and creates new and exciting opportunities for our employees, customers and suppliers.

“We are excited for Kellanova’s next chapter as part of Mars, which will bring together both companies’ world-class talent and capabilities and our shared commitment to helping our communities thrive. With a proven track record of successfully and sustainably nurturing and growing acquired businesses, we are confident Mars is a natural home for the Kellanova brands and employees.”

Mars has set up a dedicated website to provide ongoing information about the transaction.



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Flavors, authenticity, consumer connection to drive food & beverage


One of the most significant trends is the growing consumer interest in global flavors, which saw an uptick during the COVID-19 pandemic. The demand for global flavor persisted, with consumers now seeking extraordinary flavors that offer both comfort and adventure, according to Innova Market Insights​.

Source: Feel Good Foods

Similarly, plant-based puffed snacks maker Snacklins global influences, comfort foods and a commitment to free-from ingredients. Its product lineup, including flavors Barbecue, Chesapeake Bay and Teriyaki, features yuca mushroom as the first ingredient and is Non-GMO certified, vegan and kosher.

Consumers also are drawn to earthy, nostalgic flavors made with high-quality ingredients. For example, Point Reyes Farmstead Cheese Co. tapped into this trend with its Fennel Blue cheese, which infuses mild blue cheese with fennel to create a sweet and umami flavor blend. Point Reyes Farmstead Cheese Co. ‘s Truffle Brie uses Italian black summer truffles to create a buttery and earthy flavor profile.

Feel Good Foods, known for its frozen gluten-free comfort foods, also taps into consumers’ preferences for nostalgic and familiar flavors. Its offerings, such as Fried Pickles, Chicken Potstickers and Jalapeño Bites, provide better-for-you versions of classic comfort foods. According to the company, the two pound bag of gluten-free Jalapeño Bites, made with cream cheese, will be available in Costco stores in the Bay Area this month.

Authenticity matters to older consumers, follower-count matters more for Gen Z

Sprouts Social’s Influencer Marketing report​ highlighted consumers’ expectations for brands to align with personal values through authentic messaging, giving brands and retailers an opportunity to shape their strategy towards social and emotional value.

According to the report, 53% of Millennial, Gen X and Baby Boomers look for a brand to align with personal values and 47% for authenticity, even for sponsored content. However, only 35% of Gen Z reported they value authenticity but 47% focus on a brand’s followers, underscoring brands’ emphasis on establishing quantifiable trustworthiness.

Dr. Bronner’s Magic All-One — including its Oat Milk Chocolate and Dark Chocolate bars — are wrapped in packaging that features messages of social unity and regenerative agriculture from the brand’s founder, Emanuel Bronner. The bars also are USDA-organic, Fair for Life and Certified B Corp certified, emphasizing the brand’s commitment to environmental stewardship and sourcing transparency.

Non-alcoholic beer leader Athletic Brewing Co. also leverages authentic messaging to connect with its audience. On its website and social media channels, the brand promotes self-care, active lifestyles and social connection without the need for alcohol by partnering with influencers like hairstylist Jay Wendt and triathlete Stuart Tier.

This messaging is reinforced by the brand’s diverse flavor offerings like its Run Wild IPA, Free Wave Hazy IPA, Upside Dawn Golden Ale, and offering a 25% discount on exclusive flavors for members of its Athletic Club for $29 a year, highlighting a community-oriented value system for its consumers.



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Fonterra partners with Superbrewed Food and Nourish Ingredients to develop animal-free proteins and fats



Dairy co-operative Fonterra has forged a partnership with biomass fermentation company Superbrewed Food and precision fermentation firm Nourish Ingredients to develop animal-free protein, fats and lipids.

This makes Fonterra the latest major dairy company to explore fermentation-derived protein production following similar commitments made by Danone​ and Leprino Foods​, respectively.

Superbrewed Food manufactures a biomass fermentation-derived protein ingredient that has been approved for use in the food industry by the US Food and Drug Administration. (The company has also filed market authorization applications with EU, British and Canadian regulators.) More recently, Superbrewed struck a manufacturing partnership with ingredients producer Döhler GmbH​ to increase production capacity for the fermentation-derived protein ahead of launching its first retail products.

The US firm’s ingredient contains more than 85% protein content – with 60% being the minimum requirement for use as a food ingredient – and also boasts ‘a high content’ of essential and branched chain amino acids as well as minerals and vitamins such as iron, zinc, phosphorous and B12, making it a whole food ingredient rather than an isolated protein source. Applications include dairy and sports nutrition, meat, confectionery, and bakery and snacks products.

Besides Fonterra, the Bel Group entered a strategic collaboration with Superbrewed back in 2021 with the view to develop a new line of dairy-free cheese.

With Nourish Ingredients, Fonterra will work on animal-free fats, which can provide enhancements to non-dairy categories such as bakery that traditionally rely on dairy lipids. According to the New Zealand co-op, Nourish’ precision fermentation-derived lipids boast the ‘authentic creamy taste, aroma and mouthfeel of dairy foods’ and is suitable for applications including cheese, cream, and butter.

Jeremy Hill, Chief Science & Technology Officer at Fonterra, said the company first tasted Nourish’s proprietary product in January 2024. “Nourish Ingredients is taking a unique approach that aligns perfectly with Fonterra’s focus on leadership in dairy innovation science and being at the forefront of such innovative new food ingredients,” he said. “By partnering together, we can explore new ways to help meet the growing global demand for great-tasting, texturally appealing products, that deliver exceptional experiences to customers.”

“Dairy will always be at the core of our business, now and in the future,” he added. “At the same time, ingredients produced through emerging technologies can work seamlessly in and alongside our dairy products, expanding the range of products and choices we can offer to customers and consumers.”

From R&D to climate targets

What is biomass fermentation?

According to The Good Food Institute’s 2023 State of the Industry Report, biomass fermentation leverages microorganisms that can grow fast and harbor high levels of protein to produce protein at scale. Microorganisms that can be used in the process include yeast, fungi or microalgae. Companies that leverage biomass fermentation include Quorn and Meati.

Biomass fermentation is not to be mistaken with precision fermentation, where microbes are programmed to produce specific functional ingredients, such as enzymes, proteins, vitamins and fats.

The two partnerships will help Fonterra meet both demand for increasingly sought-after sustainable ingredients while also allowing the organization to hit its climate goals.

The co-op has committed to reducing its emissions from dairy by 30% per ton of fat and protein-corrected milk by FY2030, a target that was recently validated by the Science Based Target Initiative. As Fonterra’s Gillian Munnik, global sales & marketing director for global markets, told DairyReporter in March, the co-op’s clients are demanding transparency about the impact of products sourced from the dairy major.

“We know that for many of our customers, we are a large part of their scope 3 emissions,” Munnik said. “They quite rightly need to understand the emissions profile of the dairy products they purchase from us and the plans and actions we have in place to reduce our emissions, therefore what impact this may have on their own targets.”

And in addition to producing climate-friendly ingredients that do not compromise on taste and functionality, Fonterra stands to gain additional value-added benefits through the Superbrewed partnership in particular. Besides tapping into the fermentation sector – which has in H1 2024 surpassed plant-based in investment terms after experiencing a 32% deceleration in YoY investment in 2023​ – Fonterra would be able to use Superbrewed’s platform to ferment multi-feedstocks and develop animal-free protein solutions, such as lactose permeate. 

Chris Ireland, GM, Innovation Partnerships, at Fonterra commented: “Partnering with Superbrewed Foods is a fantastic opportunity. Their cutting-edge technology aligns with our mission to provide sustainable nutritional solutions to the world and respond to the global demand for protein solutions thereby creating more value from milk for our farmers.”

Superbrewed Food CEO: ‘Our protein is different’

Bryan Tracy, CEO of Superbrewed Food, told us the partnership with the New Zealand co-operative is about developing ‘a second version’ of the company’s postbiotic cultured protein.

“Superbrewed’s already commercial, Postbiotic Cultured Protein is the first ever FDA-notified, bacteria-derived biomass ingredient that offers healthy, sustainable, and non-GMO nutrition that does not compromise on flavor, texture, or affordability,” he explained. “It works well as a complement to animal and plant proteins in numerous food and beverage formulations. Our partnership with Fonterra aims to bring forth a future version that is manufactured off the fermentation of dairy, lactose permeate.”

“We are at the very early stage of the collaboration,” he added. “A successful collaboration will result in a high-quality, sustainable protein which could potentially be sold in the US and then globally in time. Our current version is currently being introduced into the US market.”

On what sets the Superbrewed product apart from the rest, Tracy said that many of the other fermentation-produced proteins ‘are replicas of dairy proteins that are produced in genetically-engineered yeasts and isolated and extracted from complex fermentation broth’.  

“The most notable example is GMO-derived beta-lactoglobulin,” he explained. “Our Postbiotic Cultured Protein and what we are also developing with Fonterra is very different. Postbiotic Cultured Protein is a whole, inactivated microbial biomass (i.e., postbiotic) that is over 85% protein, with a high content of essential and branched-chain amino acids. It is a whole food ingredient, as opposed to a protein isolate; thereby it also contains beneficial minerals and vitamins, such as iron, zinc, phosphorous and B12, which deliver nutrition and health benefits beyond protein.”

So how can your platform be adapted to ferment other inputs, such as lactose permeate? Tracy explained the company is working with Fonterra ‘to determine the right microbe and to identify any adjustments and opportunities’. “Superbrewed has a library of incredible microbes that play a central role in human and animal nutrition,” the CEO explained. “This library also has broad diversity in ability to ferment different inputs, namely carbohydrates. Thus, we are searching deeply into our library of microbes to discover those that can efficiently ferment lactose permeate into next generations of nutrient-rich, highly functional Postbiotic Cultured Protein.”



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Global study reveals ancient wheat hybridization that shaped agriculture and civilization


Bread has provided delicious doughy calories that have energized populations from some of the first ancient cities. Ten thousand years later, bread wheat helps to sustain a global population of 8.2 billion people.

But what’s considered the ‘rapid’ spread of this iconic crop has long remained a biological mystery.

“Our findings shed new light on an iconic event in our civilisation that created a new kind of agriculture and allowed humans to settle down and form societies,” said Prof Brande Wulff, a wheat researcher at KAUST (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology).

Prof Wulff is one of the 71 researchers from The Open Wild Wheat Consortium – a collaborative aimed at leveraging the genetic diversity of wild wheat species to improve cultivated wheat varieties – to unlock the secret behind bread wheat.

The birth of bread wheat

The researchers worked back to a chance hybridization that took place in the Fertile Crescent near the southern Capsian Sea between 8,000 and 11,000 years ago, which it claims sparked an agricultural revolution.

Bread wheat (Triticum aestivum)​ is a hybrid of three wild grasses​ – made up of three genomes (A, B and D) within a single complex plant. It was a wild grass called Tausch’s goatgrass (Aegilops tauschii) ​– an otherwise unremarkable weed – that provided the D-genome when it crossed with early cultivated pasta wheat.

The OWWC believes its cultivation subsequently dispersed across the globe ‘within a few hundred or maybe a few thousand years’, with farmers quick to adopt the dynamic new crop. (The new species also spawned a new era for bakers: being high in gluten, which creates a more elastic and airy dough for breadmaking.)

Pic: GettyImages/Grafissimo

But it’s that ‘rapid’ geographical advance that has puzzled wheat researchers.

Bread wheat doesn’t exist in the wild, and the hybridization event that introduced the D genome into the plant’s existing A and B genomes would have caused ‘a genetic bottleneck’. This refers to the significant reduction in genetic diversity of the new species compared to surrounding wild grasses.

Furthermore, wheat is an inbreeding species – meaning it self-pollinates – which suggests that bread wheat might struggle to thrive outside its original environment. So how did it become so widely cultivated?

Tracking the spread

Pic: GettyImages

To solve this conundrum, the OWWC researchers studied 493 unique accessions that spanned the entire geographical range of Ae. Tauschii – ​from northwestern Turkey to eastern China.

They then selected 46 accessions that reflected the species’ traits and genetic diversity to create a highly detailed genetic map (called a Pangenome) of Ae. tauschii.

Using this Pangenome, the group scanned 80,000 bread wheat landraces (locally adapted varieties) held by International Mazie and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and also collected from around the world.

From this, the scientists figured out that around 75% of the bread wheat D-genome is derived from the lineage (L2) of Ae. tauschii​ that originates from the southern Caspian Sea. The remaining 25% is made up of lineages from other regions.

And it’s this 25% influx of genetic material that has defined the success of bread wheat.

“Without the genetic viability that this diversity brings, we would most likely not eat bread on the scale we do today,” said Prof Simon Krattinger, associate professor of Plant Science at KAUST.

“Otherwise, bread wheat today would be a regional crop – important to the Middle East – but I doubt that it would have become globally dominant without this plasticity that enabled bread wheat to adapt.”

An earlier study by the OWWC revealed the existence of a distinct lineage of Ae. Tauschii​ (known as L3 – the best-known gene for dough quality) from present day Georgia, about 500km from the Fertile Crescent.

Using the L3 Ae. Tauschii​ accessions, the researchers were able to track the hybridizations of bread wheat.

“The data beautifully supports a picture where bread wheat emerges in the southern Caspian, then with migration and agricultural expansion it reached Georgia, where gene flow and hybridizations with the peculiar, genetically distinct and geographically restricted L3 accessions resulted in the influx of new genetic material,” said Prof Krattinger.

“This is one of the novel aspects of our study and it confirms that using our new resources, we can trace the dynamics of these introgressions in bread wheat.”

Bread wheat of the future

Pic: GettyImages

In addition to solving this age-old biological mystery, the Ae. tauschii​ open source Pangenome and germplasm made available by the OWWC are already being used by researchers to discover new disease resistance genes that will protect wheat crops against threats like wheat rust. Breeders are also mining this wild grass species for climate-resilient genes that can be bred into elite wheat cultivars.

“This has been a wonderful collaborative effort by the OWWC, an international cross institute enterprise that has produced the best sequenced resource of a wild wheat relative in the world,” said Prof Wulff.

“Wild relatives such as Aegilops tauschii​ offer amazing genetic diversity that breeders can exploit with the tools we have now created and which have not been exploited in landraces, there is so much more potential that is untapped.”

Study:

Origin and evolution of the bread wheat D genome.

Authors: Cavalet-Giorsa E, González-Muñoz A, Athiyannan N, et al.

Nature (2024). doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07808-z



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Sustainable ancient grains move from standalone products to inspiring CPG ingredients, SPINS reports



“Rice and grains continue to be a crucial component of a healthy diet, particularly whole grains, they contribute to healthier outcomes in people through chronic disease prevention. They are highly economical in terms of calories and nutrients per serving, and they are inherently sustainable in comparison to other food sources, like beef, and even more sustainable than fruits and vegetables,” said Zoe Colon, senior insights analyst at SPINS, during the webinar.

Sustainable ancient grains decline as a standalone product

In the webinar, SPINS highlighted seven major sustainable ancient grains that are growing in popularity in the US — quinoa, farro, buckwheat, millet, amaranth, teff and sorghum — which account for $41.4 million in standalone sales, according to MULO data for the 52 weeks, ending May 19, 2024.

Sustainable ancient grains “can grow in harsh conditions with minimal water and fertilizer inputs” through regenerative agriculture practices, which promotes soil health, Gina Roberts, client insights senior analyst at SPINS, explained during the webinar. Additionally, these grains can deliver high-nutrient content, with quinoa being “a great source of complete protein and amino acids,” Colon noted.

In a fall 2023 survey of 1,000 US consumers, specification management platform Specright found​ that 80% of consumers are more likely to trust a company with sustainability claims, and 74% said they are more likely to purchase from companies that are transparent about their sustainability practices.

Sustainable grains expect to see ‘significant future growth as a supporting ingredient’

However, as a standalone product, these seven grains declined in dollars over recent years, with sales hitting $44.7 million two years ago.

Quinoa accounts for approximately 73% of the sustainable grains market, followed by farro at 16%, buckwheat at 8%, millet at 1%, and the rest comprising 1%. Despite its prominence, quinoa sales declined by $2.4 million, while farro and buckwheat increased by $0.5 million and $0.2 million, respectively, for the same 52-week period.

Though sales are declining as a standalone product, sustainable ancient grains are gaining ground in CPG products, noted Gina Roberts, client insights senior analyst at SPINS during the webinar.

“It does not mean that they are on the decline, [or] they are leaving the shelf. It really is showing as we dive deeper into the data that these sustainable grains have a significant future growth as a supporting ingredient, so they [came] into the market as a single product, and now have this new future,” she said.

She added, “Concerns over climate change and protecting the planet have truly propelled sustainable grains to the forefront of product formulations, and it is taking that sustainable component plus nutrition in driving that force of expansion for sustainable grains into new spaces.”

Buckwheat gains ground as an ingredient for better-for-you snacks and beverages

Buckwheat — a gluten-free grain primarily grown in East Asia — has started to expand in breakfast with cereals and granolas as well in snacking and beverage category. Soba tea is a buckwheat-based beverage known for its anti-inflammatory in Asia, and buckwheat can also be used as a base for kombucha, she added.

“When we look into snacking, we are seeing buckwheat flour swapping out enriched and processed flowers and coming into more better-for-you snacking items, specifically in cookies as well as in crackers, crisps [and] breads,” she said.

Similarly, the “gluten-free trio” — millet, teff and sorghum — are finding their way in a range of allergen-friendly flour, Roberts noted. Additionally, sorghum syrups have emerged as a sustainable substitute for maple syrup and cooking ingredients, she noted.

“Millet, teff and sorghum, these are all gluten-free sustainable grains, and they are commonly used as flour alternatives and flour mixes and allergen-friendly products, … but each of these sustainable grains can be used as a nutritious thickening agent as well,” she said.  



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Six snack industry collabs revolutionizing new product development


By partnering with other brands, companies can leverage each other’s strengths, whether it’s expertise in product development, distribution networks or brand loyalty. Moreover, collaborations enable snack producers to tap into new customer segments, share resources and reduce costs, fostering a more resilient and competitive industry landscape.

Here are a few that are currently shaking up the snack sector.

Pop-Tarts and Nothing Bundt Cakes

The pair have joined forces to release a ‘crazy good’ flavor – Frosted Strawberry Pop-Tarts – only available until September 1 at the Northing Bundt Cakes’ 600-plus bakeries across the US.

The dinky Bundtlet is a strawberry cake infused with Frosted Strawberry Pop-Tarts pieces, crowned with signature cream cheese frosting and then topped with confetti sprinkles and a Frosted Strawberry Pop-Tarts Pastry Bite.

“Our collaboration with Pop-Tarts brings a classic, nostalgic taste to our Bundtlets to create a one-of-a-kind snack,” said Claire Jessen, Nothing Bundt Cakes VP of Culinary.

“Our crazy good Frosted Strawberry Pop-Tarts flavor is reminiscent of coming home from school hungry and grabbing a satisfying, sweet little treat from the pantry to keep you happy ‘til dinner.”

Nothing Bundt Cakes is becoming increasingly recognized for its growing rotation of limited-time pop-up flavors, designed to capitalize on the ‘little treat culture’ among Gen Zs. The brand has released more new or re-imagined flavors in 2024 than ever before in its 27-year history – with more to follow.

“We are excited to partner with Nothing Bundt Cakes to showcase how Pop-Tarts doesn’t just belong in the toaster – it can be used to transform menus and provide inspiration for unique concepts,” said Michelle Barnes, director of commercial strategy, Kellanova Away From Home.

“This unexpected, limited-time offering from Nothing Bundt Cakes is sure to delight fans of both brands while still delivering the great taste consumers know and love.”

Dallas-headquartered Nothing Bundt Cakes also offers handcrafted Bundt Cakes for pickup or delivery in a variety of flavors, such as bite-sized Bundtinis, cupcake-sized Bundt Cakes, personal-sized Bundtlets and 8- and 10-inch Bundt Cakes, in additional to a growing gluten-free range.

Klimon and Universal

As ‘Despicable Me 4’ dominates the box office, fast-growing dairy-free brand Klimon has entered into a multi-year licensing agreement with Universal that includes the right to develop Minion-branded nondairy products.

Klimon (‘no milk’ backwards) offers 100% plant-based, dairy- and gluten-free frozen desserts, which are sold across the US in grocers like Harris Teeter, Stop & Shop and Stater Brothers. The creamy texture comes from a proprietary process that blends pea protein, coconut oil and tapioca. A recent packaging redesign placed emphasis on the play on words with a new logo that  features a backwards N and a crossed out ‘O’ and specific color gradients to designate  each of its seven flavors.

The US company is riding high, with YOY revenue growth of 126%.

“The plant-based food revolution is here to stay and new iconic brands will emerge,” said Klimon founder and CEO Alex Cotraviwat.

“By delivering superior taste and experience, understanding and meeting consumer desires and integrating with cultural touchstones, we believe Klimon can be the market leader in dairy free products.”

Driven by consumer dietary restrictions, concerns about the environment and animal welfare and a general desire for more plant-based options, the North American dairy alternatives market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 12.25% through 2030, according to Mintel data. In fact, The Good Food Institute reported that one in 10 US households purchased plant-based ice cream and frozen novelties in 2023.

Oreo and Coca-Cola

Besties often become a combination of their best traits, making each other even better together. In this spirit, for the first time ever, Oreo and Coca-Cola have teamed up to create two limited-edition products inspired by each other.

“We strive to identify fresh ways to excite consumers and with this collaboration, we have truly upped the ante,” said Eugenia Zalis, global head of Marketing and Brand for Oreo, Mondelez International.

“The bestie bond forged between Oreo and Coca‑Cola is a playful way to unite our fanbases and celebrate the power of connection and togetherness. We cannot wait to see the reaction to the campaign and hope fans are excited to experience the latest twists on two classics.”

  • The Oreo Coca-Cola Sandwich Cookie boasts a distinctive red and black color-blocked design featuring two unique basecakes, a classic chocolate (that contains Coca-Cola syrup) and a red-colored golden embossed with Coca-Cola designs, stuffed with a smooth white-colored crème. The basecakes also feature popping candies that bring a ‘fizz’ sensation to every bite.
  • The Coca-Cola Oreo Zero Sugar Limited Edition features a captivating design with its sleek packaging, adorned with the signature Oreo cookie embossment and stacked Coca-Cola bottles. Each sip imparts the refreshing Coca-Cola taste with hints of Oreo cookies.

Marking the occasion is also the ‘Bestie Mode Digital Experience’, an exclusive platform and musical experience designed by Spotify, along with a ‘Bestie Mode’ merchandise line with fashion retailer Forever21. Fans can activate ‘Bestie Mode’ by scanning on-pack QR codes to merge their music tastes and create custom Spotify playlists to commemorate their friendship The collection includes an apparel top, jacket, socks, tote bags, cosmetics bag, drinkware and notebooks, and will be available from mid-September online and at select stores.

“We took careful steps to ensure we delivered the Oreo experience in a Coca‑Cola and vice versa,” said Oana Vlad, Global VP, Brand Strategy at The Coca‑Cola Company.

“Both products went through several iterations and we look forward to following the public conversation of what each tastes like. At the end of day, our mutual commitment to product quality and technical excellence – and our willingness to have fun and work together as one team – made this possible.”

The Limited-Edition treats will begin rolling out at retailers in the US, Canada, China, Mexico and Brazil from September 9 for a limited time. Both products are also available for pre-order in early September from Oreo and Walmart online.

Rice Krispies Treats and Red Jacket Beach Resort

Inspired by the magic of sleepovers, Rice Krispies Treats has conspired with the newly renovated Cape Cod-based Beach Resort to make fans feel like a kid again.

The brand is challenging families to ditch the fall dread and get away for one more sweet summer vacation at this one-of-a-kind destination: the Re-Treat Suite by Rice Krispies Treats.

Guests will experience their favorite snack like never before and wake up to ocean views from a giant Rice Krispies Treats bed. They can ride down the slide from the top bunk of the double-stacked Treat bunkbeds; build a massive marshmallow-y pillow fort; and host a throwback movie marathon on a giant projector and marshmallow beanbags. That’s not all as the Treat Yourself bar is super-stocked with fan-favorites treats: Original, Chocolate, Strawberry, Chocolatey Chip Cookie Dough, Rainbow and Chocolatey Peanut Butter.

The best part? This dream-like stay can be reserved for no cost!

“At a time when families are packing their bags for back-to-school and early bedtime, we’re packing our bags for the Re-Treat Suite and this family-loved beach destination,” said Danielle Rappoport, brand director for Rice Krispies Treats.

“We know that our iconic snack has the power to give our fans that wonderful sense of carefree fun. We hope the Re-Treat Suite gives guests an excuse to enjoy one more magical vacation with their loved ones before the sun sets on summer.”

Part of a multi-property resort group set upon a nearly one-mile stretch of beach along the Atlantic, the recently reimagined Red Jacket Beach Resort features multiple pools, tennis and pickleball courts, kid-centric activities, bike rentals and more. Families and fans can request to book a two-night stay – August 30-September 1) at the Re-Treat Suite by Rice Krispies Treats for up to six guests.

Booking is awarded on a first-come, first-served basis, and guests will be responsible for their own travel to and from the Resort.

Cheetos and J Balvin

The iconic snack has partnered with the international superstar and entrepreneur for this year’s Deja tu Huella campaign.

Deja tu Huella – which translates as ‘Leave your mark’ – was created by Cheetos in 2020 to celebrate those who are leaving a mark on their communities through art, education, music, technology, fashion and more. For years, the brand has supported these individuals with funding and resources to continue pursuing their passions.

Now the brand is welcoming J Balvin into the Deja tu Huella family in a way only it can: by sponsoring his iconic, orange-dusted fingertips. J Balvin has undoubtedly left a long-lasting impact by uniting people across the world through his music and helping the community through his Vibra en Alta Foundation. By giving back and uplifting the community, he aims to support the next generation by creating opportunities, fostering growth and ensuring a brighter future.

“Cheetos is committed to uplifting the Latino community to provide them with the tangible support needed to unleash their full potential and continue impacting their communities in big ways,” said Tina Mahal, senior VP of Marketing at PepsiCo Foods North America.

“The impact J Balvin’s made through his music and work with his Vibra en Alta foundation will help shine light on a community that truly embodies Deja tu Huella’s spirit.”

The raggaeton superstar – one of the best-selling Latin music artists with sales of more than 35 million records worldwide – is also helping the brand to find the next Deja tu Huella Ambassador.

The Deja tu Huella Ambassador network includes 20 inspiring individuals who have leveraged their talents to make a positive impact in the Latino community.

The new ambassador will hit the road with Cheetos in October on a three-stop community college tour to bring more visibility to their platform and help provide valuable resources to support career growth. The Cheetos Community College Tour will feature events and opportunities – including Culinary Creator competitions and workshops, along with networking and mentorship sessions. The PepsiCo Foundation will award scholarships along the way. Throughout the tour, Cheetos will reach and support thousands of students at Hispanic-Serving Institutions (HSI) in Miami, Dallas and Los Angeles.

To apply, fans can head to the Cheetos website or scan the on-pack QR code found on limited-time Cheetos Salsa con Queso bags, now available nationwide. Applications remain open until August 26.

“As a longtime fan of the Deja tu Huella campaign, it means a lot to me to team up with Cheetos to give back to the community that has given me so much throughout my career,” said J Balvin.

“There are so many incredible people out here inspiring change and showcasing the beauty of our Latino culture. It’s about breaking barriers and pushing boundaries for the next generation.”

To spread the news, Cheetos has created a TV commercial that features J Balvin showing off his Cheetle-covered fingertips everywhere he goes – from the red carpet to going out for dinner.

Bear and Urban Fruit

The partnership combines the best of both brands and is set to continue disrupting the snacking category by offering healthier fruit snacks made from real fruit.

The Urban Fruit line up, comprising gently baked dried fruit such as mango, strawberries and pineapple, will join the Bear brand, known for its popular Yoyos and Fruit Splits, made with real fruit and no added nasties.

The combined portfolio – owned by Urban Fresh Foods, under Lotus Bakeries – will benefit from the high penetration, strong visual identity and category-leading customer share of Bear to upscale exposure, drive brand growth and fuel incrementality.

“Bear’s mission is to make healthier fruit snacking easier and tastier for all, and that’s exactly what this move accelerates, embracing the crossover in the category and amplifying Bear as a brand for all ages, from little cubs to their adults, and shoppers seeking healthier snacks,” said Derren Plows, MD of Urban Fresh Foods.

“We know that four in five children are missing out on their full 5-a-day – along with around 70% of adults – so there’s a job to do to encourage more fruit and veg occasions, across all ages. As kids and adults fruit snacking is often merchandized together, there’s a huge opportunity to bridge the gap and encourage shoppers to cross shop fruit snacks for themselves at the same time as their little ones.”

Added Jo Agnew, Urban Fresh Foods’ marketing director, “The new Bear Fruit products haven’t changed at all – they still don’t contain preservatives; they still contain one of your 5-a-day and they still have the same great taste our shoppers know and love.

“As a brand, Bear continues to add value into the category, for both retailers and our shoppers, whether that’s through our innovation and flavor development, such as our new Tropical Yoyos; our recent on-pack partnerships with the Natural History Museum and Water Babies; or our collectable cards, which little ones just love to collect.”



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Consumers prefer sweet over salty snacks, as healthy options ripe for innovation, IFIC finds



“While most Americans do not consume the daily dietary guidance recommendations for fruits, vegetables, dairy and whole grains, nearly everyone snacks. Given snacking’s widespread popularity and its role in our daily enjoyment, it is important to reconsider, reframe and redefine healthy snacking behaviors to improve the health of all Americans,” IFIC President and CEO Wendy Reinhardt Kapsak shared in a press release​.  

Spicy is no match for sweet, salty

In its “American Consumer Perceptions of Snacking” report, IFIC surveyed more than 1,000 shoppers older than 18 years about their snacking habits, including why they snack and what they eat.

Most consumers (59%) said sweet snacks are part of their snacking habit, slightly above salty at 58%. Additionally, 48%, 36% and 24% of consumers said their snacks consist of crunchy, fresh or spicy foods, respectively.

More than half (58%) of consumers seek fruit in their snacks, while 43% seek protein and grains, 35% dairy and 28% vegetables.                 

Consumers turn to snacks for spontaneous indulgent moments

Two-thirds (66%) of consumers said they spontaneously snack while 11% said they plan snacks, with the remaining 22% doing a mix between the two. Similarly, nearly half (49%) of consumer do not count their typical snack’s calories.

Nearly half (45%) of consumers said their typical snack is used to satisfy their hunger in between meals, while 32% say they snack for an energy boost. Additionally, 41% said their typical snack is for an indulgent moment or as an added treat.  

Similarly, 56% of consumers choose a snack based on how well it satisfies their hunger, while 45% said they choose a snack to satisfy a specific taste. Additionally, consumers said they purchase a snack because it is convenient, provides energy-boosting benefits, and out of habit, with 34%, 23% and 22%, respectively saying so. Only 15% of consumers choose a snack because it is healthy.

Despite fewer consumers picking snacks for health reasons, IFIC found that consumers were open to the idea of healthier snack options. 

Of those who said they ate less healthy snacks, 38% said healthy portable snack options would improve their snacking habits, while 26% said tips for planning or preparing snacks in advance would be helpful. However, 33% said they were not interested in improving the healthfulness of their snacks.



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Harris aims to ban food price gouging, while industry points to supply chain pressures



As part of broader plans to lower the cost of living for Americans during her economic speech​ in Raleigh, NC, last week, Harris said she intends to address food price gouging during her first 100 days in office.

Harris plans “to make it a top priority to bring down costs and bring economic security for Americans,” and “take on high costs,” such as for food, she said during her speech via Washington Post.

She argued that even though the supply chain has improved since the COVID-19 pandemic, “prices are still too high. A loaf of bread cost 50% more today than it did before the pandemic. Ground beef is up almost 50%.”

She pointed out that while some grocery chains are passing on savings to Americans, “many are not,” highlighting record high profits from food companies.

Contrary to the higher cost of consumer foods, food prices ‘represented a bright spot’

In a prepared response​ to Harris’ plans, FMI – The Food Industry Association’s President and CEO, Leslie Sarasin explained that while inflation has increased prices of consumer goods, food prices “represented a bright spot,” according to data from the 2024 Consumer Price Index​ (CPI).

Sarasin highlights “July’s CPI placed year-over-year food-at-home inflation at 1.1%, which remains below the 2.9% increase in overall inflation,” Sarasin said.

However, Harris compares current food prices to pre-pandemic levels, emphasizing that while inflation may be slowing, the cost of groceries remains higher than before the pandemic.

Sarasin added, “Food retailers’ profit margins are, and always have been, extremely tight – just 1.6% last year,” according to FMI data​.

Sarasin cited the food industry’s ongoing efforts “amidst fierce competition” to tackle inflation and reduce costs for consumers. She emphasized higher labor costs, turbulent energy prices, unpredictable environmental events, supply chain disruptions and “an unprecedented level of regulatory burden” have attributed to an increase in food production costs.

In response to “deceptive practices like price gouging,” Sarasin emphasized its illegality and that “is has no place in our stores.”

“It is both inaccurate and irresponsible to conflate an illegal activity like price gouging—a defined legal term in which specific violations of trade practices law occur—with inflation, which is a broad macroeconomic measure of increases in consumer prices over time due to supply chain cost pressures. In the context of food, inflation impacts how far the dollar goes when buying groceries,” she said.

Sarasin highlighted that for Americans and the food industry, “when discussing food prices, it is imperative that our conversations remain grounded in reality and data, rather than rhetoric.”

Supply chain pressures did raise costs, but mostly for manufacturers and retailers

Ricky Volpe, associate professor of agribusiness at California Polytechnic State University echoed these sentiments, adding that “recent media coverage surrounding inflation’s impact on food prices often does not reflect the economic subtleties and nuances that influence the real cost of food in America,” during an interview​ with FMI.

Volpe explained that while the average American income increased by 28% between March 2020 and June 2024, food prices increased 24.6% in the same period, according to data​ from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Disposable Income, which measures the average amount of after-tax income. Volpe emphasized that although food prices appeared to have increased, the actual cost of groceries, relative to wages, decreased by nearly two percentage points in the same period.

“This has allowed consumer demand to remain high and families to meet their grocery needs even as prices have increased,” he said.

While it remains true that food prices increased relative to wages, Volpe explained that increased supply chain costs were mostly absorbed by grocers and producers.

“The truth is that when producer costs go up, consumer prices go up too — this is standard market dynamics,” he added.

Volpe detailed supply chain pressures such as rising transportation costs caused by a shortage of truck drivers​ and limited refrigerated truck capacity, higher labor costs due to labor challenges, higher turnover rates and severe weather events that have contributed to driving up prices for manufacturers and retailers.

Based on food manufacturing data​ from the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures the prices businesses pay for goods and services necessary to make their products and data about food at home in the Consumer Price Index between March 2020 and June 20204, consumer prices grew slightly less than producer input costs, while groceries’ costs grew 25.3% and producer costs grew 28%, Volpe explained.

“This suggests that not only are grocers absorbing a portion of the supply chain cost increases, but also that the prices consumers pay are not the result of runaway profits. Rather, they are due to inflationary pressures throughout the entire supply chain that increase costs for businesses producing and selling food,” he said.

For example, fruits and vegetables producer costs increased by 37.1% over the four-year time period, whereas consumer prices went up 16.2%, resulting in a difference of 20.9 percentage points, according to PPI data.

This indicates the supply chain is absorbing a large portion of the input costs to avoid passing significant price hikes on to consumers,” Volpe added.

 

                                                                                                                                             



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