Brazilian pork and poultry forecast
The ABPA (Brazilian Animal Protein Association) has released forecasts for the country’s pig and poultry sector beyond 2022. Brazil’s poultry and pork production will rise, but broiler exports will rise by only 5%, while pork shipments may fall by 3% in 2022. According to the association, both sectors will develop actively in production and export in 2023.
Pork production
As for pork, ABPA reports that in 2022 production will reach 4.95 million tonnes, an increase of 5%. By 2023 he is expected to reach 5.1 million tonnes, an increase of 3%. The domestic market can accept 9% more pork in 2022, equivalent to about 3.9 million tons. The forecast for 2023 is 3.95 million tonnes, an increase of 2%. “Pork is now more competitive than other proteins, with domestic consumption increasing significantly and expected to reach 18kg per capita for the first time,” said Luis Rua, director of ABPA’s Markets.
Chinese pork imports are expected to rise in the second half, which should boost exports in the sector
ABPA ‘s market director Luís Rua expects the market to fall 3% this year and rise in 2023 In this sense, export forecasts by the sector this year should reach 1.1 million tonnes, 3% less than in 2021, but still the second best result in the history of pig farming in Brazil. % new increase is expected, the volume could reach 1.2 million tonnes. “As already mentioned, China’s pork imports are expected to increase in the second half of the year, which should support the sector’s exports,” adds Rua. He said other factors, such as the Canadian market, lower tariffs in South Korea and Vietnam, and increased sales to new markets such as Thailand, could push Brazilian pig exports to 100,000 per month starting this year.
Poultry Production
Increased poultry production Brazil’s chicken production could reach 14.5 million tonnes, up 1% in 2022 compared to 2021. The availability of chicken meat in the domestic market has also reached a higher level, and in 2022 he is expected to increase by 0.5% to reach 9.78 million tonnes, according to ABPA. ABPA expects poultry exports to reach 4.9 million tonnes this year, up 6% from last year. Chicken production is expected to increase by 5% next year, with 9.8 million tonnes available in the country in 2023. In 2023, exports are expected to grow again by 6% to a maximum of 5.2 million tonnes.
Sector competitiveness
ABPA also detailed factors of competitiveness of Brazilian poultry and pig farming. One of these points addressed was products and services costs.
For instance, Polyethylene used in the production of packaging increased by 61% between 2018 and 2021, according to the study.
Electricity increased by 32% in the same period – keeping Brazil among the countries with less competitive energy costs, compared to other major world exporters of proteins.
Costs have also become higher in export logistics. The average international freight per container jumped from US$ 3,890 in 2018 to more than US$ 7,000 in 2021.
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Source: Pig Progress
