The widespread outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) that disrupted U.S. poultry production earlier this year and sent egg and turkey prices soaring, has subsided.
As temperatures warmed and the bird migration season ended, HPAI cases declined significantly. However, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, the risk of another outbreak this fall remains high, and the risk for poultry producers cannot be any higher.
Poultry product prices had risen significantly prior to his HPAI outbreak this year due to supply shortages and strong consumer demand for animal protein products. The added burden of the HPAI-related supply shock exacerbated tight market conditions and boosted values. Table egg prices have tripled in some markets, and turkey breasts hit an all-time high.
Similarly, U.S. poultry exports were up 19% year-over-year through June. In 2021, total U.S. poultry exports will reach her $5.9 billion, and the current pace of exports indicates he could hit a record high in 2022. Increased reliance on export markets for certain poultry commodities, such as chicken legs and thighs, makes the exporter even more vulnerable to trade restrictions that may result from future outbreaks of his HPAI. increase.
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“Luckily for U.S. poultry exporters, the current worldview on HPAI trade restrictions has eased since 2014 and his last outbreak in 2015,” said Brian Ernest a senior animal protein economist at CoBank. “Instead of blanket bans, trading partners have imposed new county, state or local level restrictions as outbreaks have become more common worldwide and political It’s no coincidence, as the family was concerned about the rapid rise in food prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
Current trade restrictions are limited but subject to change. When her HPAI broke out in 2014, China immediately closed its borders to U.S. poultry, and export-dependent quarterly prices fell 50% from her mid-2014 to mid-2015. The price of chicken feet fell further. The Chinese market will not reopen to U.S. poultry until 2019, which was made as part of the U.S.-China phase one trade deal.
Her HPAI outbreak in 2014-15 was devastating to U.S. producers, and the direct costs associated with euthanising and depopulating 43.2 million egg-laying hens and 7.3 million turkeys cost him 16 million. Estimated at 100 million US dollars. Including related restoration costs, the total exceeded $3.3 billion.
Since that outbreak, U.S. poultry production has increased by an average of 2% annually from 2016 to 2020. Dependence on exports continues to grow, and access to foreign markets remains important to the U.S. poultry industry. With more at stake, protecting production streams from the threat of animal diseases is even more important for producers, consumers, and other businesses across the value chain.
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His HPAI shock to the domestic market was more severe than the 2014-15 outbreak, considered to be the largest outbreak in history. The hardest-hit sectors this year are egg and turkey producers, similar to the 2014-15 epidemic. And while the industry has implemented best practices over the last seven years, production methods haven’t changed much.
In 2015, following a mass population decline, the U.S. egg industry experienced a rapid increase in productivity before leveling off for several years. With today’s feed, labor and other production costs much higher, Earnest expects producers to rebuild their herds slowly. “Smaller egg-laying flocks across the country mean less egg supply, higher egg prices, and fewer eggs to be consumed in the coming months,” he said.
This year, at the same time that HPAI broke out in U.S. turkey flocks, the spot market price for fresh wholesale tom breasts has climbed above $6.50 a pound in recent weeks, a previously unattainable level. At the same time, breast meat fell to just 43 million pounds in April and safety stocks rose slightly again in May.
This HPAI impact on broiler production appears to be minimal in both 2015 and 2022. However, the impact on exports and prices this time is clearly different. In 2015, U.S. poultry exports fell by nearly $1 billion, and dark meat prices plummeted. However, the US poultry export market looks more favorable for him in 2022. The current 12-month total volume is within 1% of what was reported a year ago, and 2022 volumes are expected to match 2015 volumes by more than $1bn.
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Source: Wattagnet
