The impact of a sharp decline in U.S. beef stocks due to the effects of this year’s devastating drought is likely to have a severe impact on global beef supplies next year, after US beef exports soared this year. This is because culling rates soared as desperate growers closed stocks due to food and water shortages.

According to USMEF, US beef exports totaled 133,832 tonnes in August, nearly double Australia’s exports and a record US monthly export. The value once again was over $1 billion and this year and reached that milestone in 7 out of 8 months.

In the first eight months of 2022, U.S. beef exports rose 5% year-over-year to reach $8.23 billion, just over 1 million tons, 24% above 2021’s record pace. Much of this performance has been fueled by relentless sales of US beef herds this year as drought sweeps through much of the United States, especially in key beef-producing regions.

However, it will have to stop at some point, in which case Australian market observers speculate that it will likely stop soon. March-April next year has been cited as a key trigger point for the disappearance of the huge US beef surplus currently heading for export.

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