Total meat and poultry production in 2023 is expected to decline by 1% year-on-year. This is extremely rare and, given the growing world population, means competition for less meat. There is no doubt that African Swine Fever is spreading and causing serious production problems in Europe, Russia and most of Asia, including China.

The dramatic “demand shock” as COVID spread rapidly, has sent pig prices sharply lower over the last 30 days with prices now below breakeven. Total U.S. pork production, the December Hogs and Pigs report indicated a total pig population of 73.1 million, down 2% from last year. Market hog numbers down nearly 6% from the recent highs in 2020

Listed below are the current assumptions starting out the new year.

  1. Total pork production is projected up 1% from 2022.
  2. Pork exports are projected to decline 1% versus 2022.
  3. Beef production is projected to fall hard, declining by 7.6% or more.
  4. Beef exports are projected to fall 13%.
  5. Broiler production is projected to increase by just under 2%.

Read: What’s in store for the food industry this year?

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