The alternative meat market, once worth $1.3 billion, is now valued at $1.1 billion. This article explores the decline of refrigerated plant-based chicken nuggets and the factors influencing the slump.
Why the Alternative Meat Market Is Struggling: Analyzing the Decline of Refrigerated Plant-Based Chicken Nuggets
The alternative meat industry, which saw significant growth in the early 2020s, has faced a notable downturn in recent years. Once valued at $1.3 billion in 2020, the market has since shrunk to $1.1 billion, despite 2024 profits outperforming pre-pandemic figures. While the overall trend for meat substitutes is concerning, one category has taken a significant hit: refrigerated plant-based chicken nuggets. With a staggering 56.2% drop in sales in 2024, the decline of this once-promising product segment raises questions about the future of the plant-based industry.
In this article, we explore the challenges facing refrigerated plant-based chicken nuggets, the fresh versus frozen debate, and how the rise of concerns over ultra-processed foods may be contributing to the decline.
Fresh vs. Frozen Meat Alternatives: The Divide
Although total alternative meat sales were down 11.5% in 2024, the fresh and frozen categories experienced different levels of decline. Sales of frozen plant-based products decreased by 8%, while fresh, refrigerated items plummeted by 17.3%. This disparity indicates a growing preference for frozen products among consumers.
According to Circana’s Current State of Meat Alternatives report, frozen plant-based products now account for 70% of the U.S. alternative meat market share. The frozen segment seems to be the safer bet, with 63% of fresh meat alternative buyers also purchasing frozen items. On the other hand, only 36% of frozen shoppers buy fresh products, suggesting that consumers heavily favor frozen alternatives.
Furthermore, the heaviest buyers of plant-based products tend to prefer frozen items over fresh ones. This trend may be a key factor in the declining sales of refrigerated meatless chicken nuggets. The convenience, longer shelf life, and often better taste retention of frozen products may be contributing to the shift.
Fresh vs. Frozen Nuggets: A Lack of Options
One possible explanation for the dramatic decline in fresh plant-based chicken nuggets is the limited availability of these products. A simple online search for “refrigerated plant-based chicken nuggets” or “fresh plant-based chicken nuggets” yields minimal results, with most items available only in frozen form.
For example, Daring’s Plant Chicken Pieces are technically fresh, but they’re grilled rather than fried, which makes it difficult to classify them as true “nuggets.” Similarly, The Vegetarian Butcher’s What the Cluck vegan chicken-style chunks can be transformed into nuggets, but they aren’t marketed as such.
While Like Meat’s refrigerated Like Nuggets fit the description of true breaded nuggets, their availability is limited to Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, making them inaccessible to many potential buyers.
The lack of a diverse range of fresh plant-based nugget options in the U.S. market is likely contributing to the poor performance of this product category.
Plant-Based vs. Traditional Chicken Nuggets: A Consumer Mindset Issue
Another factor affecting sales of fresh plant-based chicken nuggets is consumer behavior. Whether the nuggets are made from plant-based ingredients or real poultry, most buyers expect to find them in the frozen section. This is where the majority of traditional chicken nuggets are sold, and consumers have become accustomed to seeking them out in this area.
As Circana Executive VP Chris DuBois points out, it’s crucial to consider where shoppers expect to find their meat alternatives. With most chicken nuggets — both traditional and plant-based — being sold in the frozen section, consumers may overlook the refrigerated aisle entirely when searching for these products.
In fact, only a few traditional meat manufacturers even offer refrigerated chicken nuggets. For instance, Perdue claims to sell “the only breaded, ready-to-eat chicken in the refrigerated aisle raised with no antibiotics ever,” and some grocery store delis carry fresh chicken nuggets. However, the overwhelming majority of breaded items, whether plant-based or not, are sold frozen. This preference stems from the fact that frozen items tend to maintain their quality better over time.
That said, there could be hope for a refrigerated nugget resurgence. As more consumers prioritize convenience over other factors, the fresh chicken nugget market — plant-based and traditional alike — may see a comeback.
The Ultra-Processed Panic: A Growing Concern
In addition to the challenges posed by the fresh vs. frozen debate, there’s a rising concern over ultra-processed plant-based products, particularly those with long ingredient lists. This trend may be another factor contributing to the decline in sales of refrigerated meatless chicken nuggets.
A study published in Lancet Regional Health – Europe found that for every 10% increase in calories from ultra-processed plant-based foods, there was a corresponding 5% higher risk of heart disease and a 6% hike in the risk of coronary heart disease. These findings have sparked growing skepticism among health-conscious consumers, who are increasingly wary of highly processed products — a category that many plant-based alternatives fall into.
To regain consumer trust and appeal, alternative meat manufacturers may need to focus on ingredient transparency. By simplifying ingredient lists and narrowing the price gap between plant-based and traditional chicken nuggets, manufacturers can address consumer concerns about both health and affordability.
Outlook for the Plant-Based Industry
Despite the struggles of the fresh plant-based chicken nugget segment, there is still hope for the broader alternative meat market. While the industry has faced setbacks, it has also demonstrated resilience. Profits in 2024 have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, and as consumer preferences continue to evolve, there may be new opportunities for growth.
The key to future success for plant-based meat manufacturers may lie in catering to consumer demand for convenience, offering a wider variety of fresh options, and addressing the ultra-processed food concerns that have caused some consumers to shy away from these products. By staying attuned to these trends, manufacturers can navigate the current challenges and work towards revitalizing the plant-based meat market.
Conclusion
The plant-based meat market’s decline, particularly the sharp drop in sales of fresh meatless chicken nuggets, reveals key insights into shifting consumer preferences. With frozen products now dominating the market, fresh alternatives have struggled to maintain their appeal. Factors such as the lack of product variety, consumer behavior, and growing concerns over ultra-processed foods have all played a role in the current state of the market. However, there remains potential for growth, especially if manufacturers can address these concerns and offer products that align with modern consumer needs.
As the plant-based industry continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see whether fresh, refrigerated products can make a comeback, or if the future of alternative meat lies firmly in the frozen aisle.
This article aims to explore the significant factors contributing to the decline of the alternative meat industry, with a particular focus on the drop in sales of refrigerated plant-based chicken nuggets, offering insights into the broader trends and consumer preferences that shape this market.